Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
Dieter
November 21st, 2021 at 10:47:35 AM permalink
Quote: romacircus

bet 6 units for 3 spins then 7 units for 7 spins for 5 spins then 5 spins for 8 units then keep going fuck knows i end up spending £2 and making £2 so i won maybe
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Welcome to WoV, just to let you know, there is a, "No profanity," rule on this forum. I'm not an Administrator, but I figured one of them would give you a soft warning for this anyway.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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November 21st, 2021 at 11:00:18 AM permalink
Romacircus, welcome to the forum.

Here's your soft warning about the no-profanity rule from an administrator.

Watch your language, please. This is a classy establishment, most of the time.
May the cards fall in your favor.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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November 21st, 2021 at 12:08:40 PM permalink
Quote: romacircus

for sure though my maths is right?
link to original post


Actually, no. If you bet a single number 24 times, there is only a 48% chance you will win. You need to bet it 37 times in order to have a 64% chance of a win.

And before you start thinking, "If I have a 48% chance of winning a bet that pays 35-1 and I would only lose 24 if all 24 bets lose, then I should come out ahead, right?", remember that if you win on the 24th bet, you only end up "winning" 12; the 35 you won on the 24th bet minus the 23 you lost on the first 23 bets combined.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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November 21st, 2021 at 1:03:30 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: romacircus

for sure though my maths is right?
link to original post


Actually, no. If you bet a single number 24 times, there is only a 48% chance you will win. You need to bet it 37 times in order to have a 64% chance of a win.

And before you start thinking, "If I have a 48% chance of winning a bet that pays 35-1 and I would only lose 24 if all 24 bets lose, then I should come out ahead, right?", remember that if you win on the 24th bet, you only end up "winning" 12; the 35 you won on the 24th bet minus the 23 you lost on the first 23 bets combined.
link to original post

ThatDonGuy,
Thank you. However, I have to say that I find your maths and explanation a little hard to follow. So, Romacircus might struggle too.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
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November 21st, 2021 at 1:15:27 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: romacircus

for sure though my maths is right?
link to original post


Actually, no. If you bet a single number 24 times, there is only a 48% chance you will win. You need to bet it 37 times in order to have a 64% chance of a win.

And before you start thinking, "If I have a 48% chance of winning a bet that pays 35-1 and I would only lose 24 if all 24 bets lose, then I should come out ahead, right?", remember that if you win on the 24th bet, you only end up "winning" 12; the 35 you won on the 24th bet minus the 23 you lost on the first 23 bets combined.
link to original post

ThatDonGuy,
Thank you. However, I have to say that I find your maths and explanation a little hard to follow. So, Romacircus might struggle too.
link to original post



how would he have any more of a chance then .027 because every roll is independent? hes betting one unit at a time on one number and all of those tries together mean nothing i thought?
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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Thanks for this post from:
heatmap
December 11th, 2021 at 4:49:26 PM permalink
Quote: heatmap

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: romacircus

for sure though my maths is right?
link to original post


Actually, no. If you bet a single number 24 times, there is only a 48% chance you will win. You need to bet it 37 times in order to have a 64% chance of a win.

And before you start thinking, "If I have a 48% chance of winning a bet that pays 35-1 and I would only lose 24 if all 24 bets lose, then I should come out ahead, right?", remember that if you win on the 24th bet, you only end up "winning" 12; the 35 you won on the 24th bet minus the 23 you lost on the first 23 bets combined.
link to original post

ThatDonGuy,
Thank you. However, I have to say that I find your maths and explanation a little hard to follow. So, Romacircus might struggle too.
link to original post



how would he have any more of a chance then .027 because every roll is independent? hes betting one unit at a time on one number and all of those tries together mean nothing i thought?
link to original post


Yes, every roll is independent and has a 1/37 chance of happening, but where you say "all of those tries together mean nothing" you are only partly correct (see below).

"You are correct": In that the number of tries mean nothing to the house edge of the game, this will always be the same (assuming an unbiased wheel).
",,, incorrect": The greater the number of tries you make/spins you bet on, the greater the overall chance you have of hitting on at least one of those bets***.

***: It doesn't matter if you bet on 24 spins in a row on the same number, or change the number you bet on after each spin for 24 bets, or even if you bet once a year for 24 years on any single number, it will still be ~52% chance of not hitting (~48% chance of hitting at least once) .

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