romacircus
romacircus
Joined: Nov 21, 2021
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November 21st, 2021 at 7:11:58 AM permalink
i have lost some money playing roulette but doing it i've made a few observations in the few thousand spins i witnessed. so im waiting for someone to tell me im wrong. roulette is about probabilities. specifically 1/37. there really are no other probabilities. the house pays 35/1. what if you could change the odds. if you bet a number 24 times probability says you should win 64% of the time. yet betting this way i can get an evens bet. that is to say if i for example bet on 12 for 24 times i have a 64% chance of winning but with progression betting so that the return is only double the bet i have a 64% chance of winning on a bet that odds are 2/1
billryan
billryan 
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November 21st, 2021 at 8:03:43 AM permalink
If you bet on number 12 twenty-four times in a row, or make one bet a day on #12 for twenty-four days in a row, you have the same thing. You'll make twenty-four different bets, each of them at true odds of 37-1.
Are you suggesting making bets on 24 different numbers on one spin? That roughly two-thirds of the spins you should have a winning number that pays 35-1, but then you also have 23 losers that spin so your net win is 12 units.
The problem is that 2/3rds equals 66.67% and you are hitting at a 64% rate so the difference will grind you down. If you spin 100 times and win 64 of them, your losses on the 36 spins you didn't hit will be more than you won on your wins.
You won 12 units on 64 spins for 768 total unit wins, but you lost 24 units on 36 spins for 844 units, if my math is correct.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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November 21st, 2021 at 8:14:38 AM permalink
Quote: romacircus

i have lost some money playing roulette but doing it i've made a few observations in the few thousand spins i witnessed. so im waiting for someone to tell me im wrong. roulette is about probabilities. specifically 1/37. there really are no other probabilities. the house pays 35/1. what if you could change the odds. if you bet a number 24 times probability says you should win 64% of the time. yet betting this way i can get an evens bet. that is to say if i for example bet on 12 for 24 times i have a 64% chance of winning but with progression betting so that the return is only double the bet i have a 64% chance of winning on a bet that odds are 2/1
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Hi and Welcome to the forum.
You have discovered the immutable house edge in roulette, and then, like so many others, have tried to find a way around it.
There is NO way around it. On average, over statistically sound numbers of spins, 1/37* of the money you lay down on the table leaves you and stays with the casino. You can give yourself increased probability of a winning session by betting on 35 numbers simultaneously, or by any number of different wagering methods, but all you are doing is risking a lot to win a little. The casino always short changes you by 1/37th of what they should pay at fair odds. As you rinse repeat such wagers, you just progress forward in time to the day you get a crushing loss. Sometimes the crushing loss occurs after you have built up your bankroll and sometimes it happens in the first few spins.
* There is a rule 'La Partage' that some casinos offer, where the house edge is only 1/74
If some poster comes along and tells you he has a way to beat roulette, Beat a hasty retreat, because he is lying/wrong.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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November 21st, 2021 at 8:32:14 AM permalink
Quote: romacircus

i have lost some money playing roulette but doing it i've made a few observations in the few thousand spins i witnessed. so im waiting for someone to tell me im wrong. roulette is about probabilities. specifically 1/37. there really are no other probabilities. the house pays 35/1. what if you could change the odds. if you bet a number 24 times probability says you should win 64% of the time. yet betting this way i can get an evens bet. that is to say if i for example bet on 12 for 24 times i have a 64% chance of winning but with progression betting so that the return is only double the bet i have a 64% chance of winning on a bet that odds are 2/1


The problem is, it's no longer an evens (or "even money" as we say over here) bet because if you lose all 24 bets, you lose far more than you would win if any of your 24 winning bets won. There is no progression that can get around that.

Also remember that if your first 23 bets lose, the probability that your 24th bet wins is not 64%, but the same 1/37 that each of your previous 23 bets were.
heatmap
heatmap
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November 21st, 2021 at 8:55:07 AM permalink
Quote: romacircus

i have lost some money playing roulette but doing it i've made a few observations in the few thousand spins i witnessed. so im waiting for someone to tell me im wrong. what if you could change the odds. if you bet a number 24 times probability says you should win 64% of the time. yet betting this way i can get an evens bet. that is to say if i for example bet on 12 for 24 times i have a 64% chance of winning but with progression betting so that the return is only double the bet i have a 64% chance of winning on a bet that odds are 2/1
link to original post



romacircus a great man once told me

Quote: romacircus

roulette is about probabilities. specifically 1/37. there really are no other probabilities. the house pays 35/1
link to original post



i have no clue why you state the one thing and then go on to the other?
billryan
billryan 
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November 21st, 2021 at 10:11:17 AM permalink
It's a tried and true strategy. You lose money on each individual spin but make up for it by playing a lot.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
billryan
billryan 
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Thanks for this post from:
romacircus
November 21st, 2021 at 10:11:17 AM permalink
It's a tried and true strategy. You lose money on each individual spin but make up for it by playing a lot.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
romacircus
romacircus
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November 21st, 2021 at 10:34:20 AM permalink
you cant beat roulette its a bitch. even if you had a fool proof strategy the numbers you will get are completely random and what will win for someone will lose for another. its all luck but you got to be in it to win it. i always get to the point that i will double up and lose costing me hours of work. these no way to beat it. but its fun trying
romacircus
romacircus
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November 21st, 2021 at 10:35:38 AM permalink
for sure though my maths is right?
romacircus
romacircus
Joined: Nov 21, 2021
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November 21st, 2021 at 10:39:36 AM permalink
bet 6 units for 3 spins then 7 units for 7 spins for 5 spins then 5 spins for 8 units then keep going fuck knows i end up spending £2 and making £2 so i won maybe

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