turn the odds. why you will always lose at roulette

i have lost some money playing roulette but doing it i've made a few observations in the few thousand spins i witnessed. so im waiting for someone to tell me im wrong. roulette is about probabilities. specifically 1/37. there really are no other probabilities. the house pays 35/1. what if you could change the odds. if you bet a number 24 times probability says you should win 64% of the time. yet betting this way i can get an evens bet. that is to say if i for example bet on 12 for 24 times i have a 64% chance of winning but with progression betting so that the return is only double the bet i have a 64% chance of winning on a bet that odds are 2/1

If you bet on number 12 twenty-four times in a row, or make one bet a day on #12 for twenty-four days in a row, you have the same thing. You'll make twenty-four different bets, each of them at true odds of 37-1.
Are you suggesting making bets on 24 different numbers on one spin? That roughly two-thirds of the spins you should have a winning number that pays 35-1, but then you also have 23 losers that spin so your net win is 12 units.
The problem is that 2/3rds equals 66.67% and you are hitting at a 64% rate so the difference will grind you down. If you spin 100 times and win 64 of them, your losses on the 36 spins you didn't hit will be more than you won on your wins.
You won 12 units on 64 spins for 768 total unit wins, but you lost 24 units on 36 spins for 844 units, if my math is correct.

Quote: romacircus

i have lost some money playing roulette but doing it i've made a few observations in the few thousand spins i witnessed. so im waiting for someone to tell me im wrong. roulette is about probabilities. specifically 1/37. there really are no other probabilities. the house pays 35/1. what if you could change the odds. if you bet a number 24 times probability says you should win 64% of the time. yet betting this way i can get an evens bet. that is to say if i for example bet on 12 for 24 times i have a 64% chance of winning but with progression betting so that the return is only double the bet i have a 64% chance of winning on a bet that odds are 2/1
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Hi and Welcome to the forum.
You have discovered the immutable house edge in roulette, and then, like so many others, have tried to find a way around it.
There is NO way around it. On average, over statistically sound numbers of spins, 1/37* of the money you lay down on the table leaves you and stays with the casino. You can give yourself increased probability of a winning session by betting on 35 numbers simultaneously, or by any number of different wagering methods, but all you are doing is risking a lot to win a little. The casino always short changes you by 1/37th of what they should pay at fair odds. As you rinse repeat such wagers, you just progress forward in time to the day you get a crushing loss. Sometimes the crushing loss occurs after you have built up your bankroll and sometimes it happens in the first few spins.
* There is a rule 'La Partage' that some casinos offer, where the house edge is only 1/74
If some poster comes along and tells you he has a way to beat roulette, Beat a hasty retreat, because he is lying/wrong.

Quote: romacircus

i have lost some money playing roulette but doing it i've made a few observations in the few thousand spins i witnessed. so im waiting for someone to tell me im wrong. roulette is about probabilities. specifically 1/37. there really are no other probabilities. the house pays 35/1. what if you could change the odds. if you bet a number 24 times probability says you should win 64% of the time. yet betting this way i can get an evens bet. that is to say if i for example bet on 12 for 24 times i have a 64% chance of winning but with progression betting so that the return is only double the bet i have a 64% chance of winning on a bet that odds are 2/1

The problem is, it's no longer an evens (or "even money" as we say over here) bet because if you lose all 24 bets, you lose far more than you would win if any of your 24 winning bets won. There is no progression that can get around that.

Also remember that if your first 23 bets lose, the probability that your 24th bet wins is not 64%, but the same 1/37 that each of your previous 23 bets were.

Quote: romacircus

i have lost some money playing roulette but doing it i've made a few observations in the few thousand spins i witnessed. so im waiting for someone to tell me im wrong. what if you could change the odds. if you bet a number 24 times probability says you should win 64% of the time. yet betting this way i can get an evens bet. that is to say if i for example bet on 12 for 24 times i have a 64% chance of winning but with progression betting so that the return is only double the bet i have a 64% chance of winning on a bet that odds are 2/1
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romacircus a great man once told me

Quote: romacircus

roulette is about probabilities. specifically 1/37. there really are no other probabilities. the house pays 35/1
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i have no clue why you state the one thing and then go on to the other?

It's a tried and true strategy. You lose money on each individual spin but make up for it by playing a lot.

It's a tried and true strategy. You lose money on each individual spin but make up for it by playing a lot.

you cant beat roulette its a bitch. even if you had a fool proof strategy the numbers you will get are completely random and what will win for someone will lose for another. its all luck but you got to be in it to win it. i always get to the point that i will double up and lose costing me hours of work. these no way to beat it. but its fun trying

for sure though my maths is right?

bet 6 units for 3 spins then 7 units for 7 spins for 5 spins then 5 spins for 8 units then keep going fuck knows i end up spending £2 and making £2 so i won maybe

Quote: romacircus

bet 6 units for 3 spins then 7 units for 7 spins for 5 spins then 5 spins for 8 units then keep going fuck knows i end up spending £2 and making £2 so i won maybe
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Welcome to WoV, just to let you know, there is a, "No profanity," rule on this forum. I'm not an Administrator, but I figured one of them would give you a soft warning for this anyway.

Romacircus, welcome to the forum.

Here's your soft warning about the no-profanity rule from an administrator.

Watch your language, please. This is a classy establishment, most of the time.

Quote: romacircus

for sure though my maths is right?
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Actually, no. If you bet a single number 24 times, there is only a 48% chance you will win. You need to bet it 37 times in order to have a 64% chance of a win.

And before you start thinking, "If I have a 48% chance of winning a bet that pays 35-1 and I would only lose 24 if all 24 bets lose, then I should come out ahead, right?", remember that if you win on the 24th bet, you only end up "winning" 12; the 35 you won on the 24th bet minus the 23 you lost on the first 23 bets combined.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: romacircus

for sure though my maths is right?
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Actually, no. If you bet a single number 24 times, there is only a 48% chance you will win. You need to bet it 37 times in order to have a 64% chance of a win.

And before you start thinking, "If I have a 48% chance of winning a bet that pays 35-1 and I would only lose 24 if all 24 bets lose, then I should come out ahead, right?", remember that if you win on the 24th bet, you only end up "winning" 12; the 35 you won on the 24th bet minus the 23 you lost on the first 23 bets combined.
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ThatDonGuy,
Thank you. However, I have to say that I find your maths and explanation a little hard to follow. So, Romacircus might struggle too.

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: romacircus

for sure though my maths is right?
link to original post

Actually, no. If you bet a single number 24 times, there is only a 48% chance you will win. You need to bet it 37 times in order to have a 64% chance of a win.

And before you start thinking, "If I have a 48% chance of winning a bet that pays 35-1 and I would only lose 24 if all 24 bets lose, then I should come out ahead, right?", remember that if you win on the 24th bet, you only end up "winning" 12; the 35 you won on the 24th bet minus the 23 you lost on the first 23 bets combined.
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ThatDonGuy,
Thank you. However, I have to say that I find your maths and explanation a little hard to follow. So, Romacircus might struggle too.
link to original post

how would he have any more of a chance then .027 because every roll is independent? hes betting one unit at a time on one number and all of those tries together mean nothing i thought?

Quote: heatmap

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: romacircus

for sure though my maths is right?
link to original post

Actually, no. If you bet a single number 24 times, there is only a 48% chance you will win. You need to bet it 37 times in order to have a 64% chance of a win.

And before you start thinking, "If I have a 48% chance of winning a bet that pays 35-1 and I would only lose 24 if all 24 bets lose, then I should come out ahead, right?", remember that if you win on the 24th bet, you only end up "winning" 12; the 35 you won on the 24th bet minus the 23 you lost on the first 23 bets combined.
link to original post

ThatDonGuy,
Thank you. However, I have to say that I find your maths and explanation a little hard to follow. So, Romacircus might struggle too.
link to original post

how would he have any more of a chance then .027 because every roll is independent? hes betting one unit at a time on one number and all of those tries together mean nothing i thought?
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Yes, every roll is independent and has a 1/37 chance of happening, but where you say "all of those tries together mean nothing" you are only partly correct (see below).

"You are correct": In that the number of tries mean nothing to the house edge of the game, this will always be the same (assuming an unbiased wheel).
",,, incorrect": The greater the number of tries you make/spins you bet on, the greater the overall chance you have of hitting on at least one of those bets***.

***: It doesn't matter if you bet on 24 spins in a row on the same number, or change the number you bet on after each spin for 24 bets, or even if you bet once a year for 24 years on any single number, it will still be ~52% chance of not hitting (~48% chance of hitting at least once) .