Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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September 6th, 2020 at 3:24:32 PM permalink
Occasionally I make and take bets on the Dows closing value for the day. Like if the last digit is even/odd or if a certain number will appear in the final three digits (cents always included).

Of the seven Dow digits, how many would you say are essentially random every day? Id say the last three for sure but not certain beyond that.
Its all about making that GTA
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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September 7th, 2020 at 6:27:15 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Occasionally I make and take bets on the Dows closing value for the day. Like if the last digit is even/odd or if a certain number will appear in the final three digits (cents always included).

Of the seven Dow digits, how many would you say are essentially random every day? Id say the last three for sure but not certain beyond that.



28133.31 last close. I would say that for sure the last 3 digits are close enough to a random number generator to take bets on without someone having an advantage knowing the previous close. The fourth digit it is likely true for, but perhaps a slight advantage picking it to repeat versus a digit 5 away. But truly a very slight advantage, if at all. The 5th digit (from right to left) clearly would never approach a random number generator.

So I guess I agree with you!
Mission146
Mission146
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September 7th, 2020 at 6:35:30 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

28133.31 last close. I would say that for sure the last 3 digits are close enough to a random number generator to take bets on without someone having an advantage knowing the previous close. The fourth digit it is likely true for, but perhaps a slight advantage picking it to repeat versus a digit 5 away. But truly a very slight advantage, if at all. The 5th digit (from right to left) clearly would never approach a random number generator.

So I guess I agree with you!



I agree with everyone regarding this. In fact, "Numbers Games," were fairly popular as recently as the 1970's, and certainly before, as an illegal means of gambling. Sometimes controlled by crime-families, and sometimes not, they might use the last few digits in the same way, but often based it on the middle numbers of the total number of shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange for a given day.

Those were convenient, but you could basically base it on anything that they clearly did not have direct control over. Also, it was the player picking the numbers he/she wanted...so if the house edge was going to swing one way or another, it would be by way of the player figuring out that the numbers were semi-predictable. In other words, the entity(ies) running the Numbers Game wanted it to be random.

These number games were largely (but not entirely) replaced by legal state lotteries. The downside? Lottery draw games tend to have a worse return than was being offered by the criminal syndicates of one ilk or another. Who'd have bet on that?
Vultures can't be choosers.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
September 7th, 2020 at 8:25:48 AM permalink
Im also guessing the criminal syndicates didnt issue 1099s for winnings over a certain threshold
Its all about making that GTA
Mission146
Mission146
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September 7th, 2020 at 8:58:35 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Im also guessing the criminal syndicates didnt issue 1099s for winnings over a certain threshold



That's right, unlike states, they didn't double-dip their marks when they won big.

Although, they did sometimes offer, 'Credit,' or let people play on credit. Casinos do sometimes, state lotteries not so much. You probably don't want to get underwater with an entity that is behaving illegally in the first place.
Vultures can't be choosers.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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September 7th, 2020 at 9:47:58 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Occasionally I make and take bets on the Dows closing value for the day. Like if the last digit is even/odd or if a certain number will appear in the final three digits (cents always included).

Of the seven Dow digits, how many would you say are essentially random every day? Id say the last three for sure but not certain beyond that.



This was the old New Tork City numbers racket.
Yes. The last full point and the two digit fraction are the most volatile.

X.XX

In the numbers racket youd bet a nickel.

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