LUCKY LADIES side bet

The house edge with the Table B Payout (4 for any twenty, 10 for suited 20, 25 for matched set, 200 for matched Qh and 1000 for matched Qh and dealer BJ), double deck is just under 25%. Is there a count value (tens vs 3-6, eg) when this side bet has a positive expectation?

It would have to be a huge positive count. My (extremely rudimentary) estimation is that 13 more of the non-tens/aces than tens/aces would have to be out before the 25% HA would be mitigated. In a double deck game, I think penetration would come into play pretty quickly, since 13 is a big proportion of the 52-75 cards that you typically see in those games.

A count of +6 with one deck to play leaves 19 tens in the deck (vs 16). A dealt 20 will occur 14.1% of the time, instead of 10.2%. That's a 40% increase in 20's (including the A9 combinations). With 25% edge on this bet off the top, $100 bet returns $75. If you have a 40% increase in payoffs, that would indicate a $105 payback ($75 x 140%). But getting the winning bet returned might reduce this payback calculation. Bottom line is, there should ba a count value in the 6-8 range where the bet will be advantageous, provided you get the pen. I have one house where some of the dealers go 75% on the double deck.