relaxmax
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Joined: Dec 28, 2015
December 28th, 2015 at 7:48:22 AM permalink
Hi All,

I am wondering which will come up more rolling a pair of dice: ODD or EVEN?

Wizard
• Posts: 26626
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
December 28th, 2015 at 7:55:27 AM permalink
50% chance for each.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
• Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
December 28th, 2015 at 7:57:59 AM permalink
Quote: relaxmax

Hi All,

I am wondering which will come up more rolling a pair of dice: ODD or EVEN?

No way to tell without actually doing it. The odds favor neither.... with each roll of two dice there is a 50% chance of it resulting in an odd total, and a 50% chance of it resulting in an even total.
relaxmax
• Posts: 2
Joined: Dec 28, 2015
December 28th, 2015 at 7:58:55 AM permalink
Thanks for writing Wizard, Happy New Year 2016 !
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
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December 28th, 2015 at 9:52:19 AM permalink
A potential new side bet? The boxmen at Caesars would handle it... if there were boxmen at Caesars.
SanchoPanza
• Posts: 3502
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December 28th, 2015 at 10:10:27 AM permalink
Aren't there six ways for an even result and five ways for an odd result?
beachbumbabs
• Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
December 28th, 2015 at 10:13:07 AM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

Aren't there six ways for an even result and five ways for an odd result?

18 of each.

2 - 1
12 - 1
4 -3
10 - 3
6 - 5
8 - 5

3 - 2
11 - 2
5 - 4
9 - 4
7 - 6
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
RS
• Posts: 8626
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December 28th, 2015 at 10:18:29 AM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

Aren't there six ways for an even result and five ways for an odd result?

It's 1 in 6.
OnceDear
• Posts: 7484
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
December 28th, 2015 at 11:29:31 AM permalink
Quote: RS

It's 1 in 6.

Is at least one of the dice a two? :)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
RS
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Joined: Feb 11, 2014
December 28th, 2015 at 1:05:42 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Is at least one of the dice a two? :)

If one is definitely a two, then it's 100% even. Always.

But the question is worded poorly and the answer depends on your interpretation, something the mathletes struggle at.
odiousgambit
• Posts: 9625
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December 28th, 2015 at 1:11:28 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

18 of each.

2 - 1
12 - 1
4 -3
10 - 3
6 - 5
8 - 5

3 - 2
11 - 2
5 - 4
9 - 4
7 - 6

interestingly, just to show that, which is correct, doesn't quickly make a case for the probability of it, as for example we all know the 7 is easiest to roll. Wizard is correct of course, plus if this were not true [50-50] we would be hearing a lot about it all the time.

PS: occurs to me, though, that when you lay out 36 results, they are equally weighted in 2 dice???
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Wizard
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December 28th, 2015 at 3:01:18 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

A potential new side bet? The boxmen at Caesars would handle it... if there were boxmen at Caesars.

I agree. I've been advising anybody who will listen to replace the Big 6/8 bets with odd and even, but have had nothing but blank stares in response.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
MathExtremist
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December 28th, 2015 at 3:57:08 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I agree. I've been advising anybody who will listen to replace the Big 6/8 bets with odd and even, but have had nothing but blank stares in response.

That's because out of the box odd and even have no house edge, and the naive way to add a house edge (barring a number) makes the edge too high for a one-roll bet.

I have a better way to add a house edge to Odd and Even for craps and it's already approved in Nevada and Mississippi. It pays even money except for the appropriate craps rolls, which pay 4-to-5. That is, a bet on Odd loses on any even number, pays 1-1 on 4, 6, 8, 10, and 4-to-5 on 2 or 12 (even craps). A bet on Even loses on any odd number, pays 1-1 on 5, 7, 9, 11, and pays 4-to-5 on 3 (odd craps). That means it's still a 50-50 proposition, just some of the wins are less than even money.

If anyone running a dice game wants to use it, let me know. I'm not actively marketing it because I'm too busy working on other things, but it's there for the taking.

http://gaming.nv.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=7097
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
BlueEagle
• Posts: 249
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December 30th, 2015 at 10:23:56 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

a bet on Odd loses on any even number, pays 1-1 on 4, 6, 8, 10, and 4-to-5 on 2 or 12 (even craps). A bet on Even loses on any odd number, pays 1-1 on 5, 7, 9, 11, and pays 4-to-5 on 3 (odd craps).

I'm guessing you meant a bet on Odd pays 1-1 on 5, 7, 9, 11, and pays 4-to-5 on 3 (odd craps) while a bet on Even pays 1-1 on 4, 6, 8, 10, and 4-to-5 on 2 or 12 (even craps).
Wizard
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Joined: Oct 14, 2009
December 31st, 2015 at 5:03:42 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

That's because out of the box odd and even have no house edge, and the naive way to add a house edge (barring a number) makes the edge too high for a one-roll bet.

Good point. I've never got past the blank stare stage so never had a chance to talk about how to put a house edge on the bet. In the unlikely chance somebody asks, I'll bring up your bets. However, my idea was simply a 5% commission on wins. I know everybody hates commissions but I think barring a number or doing a half win would be even worse.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
NokTang
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December 31st, 2015 at 6:10:58 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

A potential new side bet? The boxmen at Caesars would handle it... if there were boxmen at Caesars.

What are you talking about now? I've never seen a table at Caesars Palace being operated without a boxman. I won't pretend my information is current and it applies to all properties, but at Caesars Palace with \$50,000.usd limits on all tables? Has to be a boxman diba?

Happy New Year but the time for jokes is April Fools Day diba?

diba is Tagalog for "I think so, don't you think so, it must be since we both think it is"
MathExtremist
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January 4th, 2016 at 10:38:18 AM permalink
Quote: BlueEagle

I'm guessing you meant a bet on Odd pays 1-1 on 5, 7, 9, 11, and pays 4-to-5 on 3 (odd craps) while a bet on Even pays 1-1 on 4, 6, 8, 10, and 4-to-5 on 2 or 12 (even craps).

Whoops, of course you're right. That's what I get for retyping rather than using cut/paste.

(And due to the new editing policy I can't go back and correct it...)
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
MathExtremist
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Joined: Aug 31, 2010
January 4th, 2016 at 10:53:17 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Good point. I've never got past the blank stare stage so never had a chance to talk about how to put a house edge on the bet. In the unlikely chance somebody asks, I'll bring up your bets. However, my idea was simply a 5% commission on wins. I know everybody hates commissions but I think barring a number or doing a half win would be even worse.

Thanks, I appreciate it. I think the problem with a 5% commission is that it begs for a \$20+ bet; otherwise it's much more than a 5% commission due to breakage. Plus, even 5% makes the edge too high for a player-friendly one roll bet. Both factors would tend to reduce the appeal to novice players who would be making bets they understand while they figure out how the passline works, but who aren't likely to make \$20 bets.

My goal with those bets was to produce the "simplest bets on the table" and with a 4-to-5 pay on craps rolls the edges are only 1.1%. That's lower on a per-bet basis than any independent wager in the game (discounting the free odds, obviously), though if a player bets it every roll it will outperform several other wagers due to the higher per-roll edge. The procedure for a 4-to-5 pay on craps numbers is somewhat cumbersome but not meaningfully more so than paying 2x or 3x on the field, and it happens just as infrequently.

Like I said, I'm not focusing on marketing them right now, but the Odd and Even craps bets are unconditionally approved in two states and I'll be happy to provide a free lease to any interested and qualified casino operator.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
RaleighCraps
• Posts: 2501
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
January 4th, 2016 at 2:50:41 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Thanks, I appreciate it. I think the problem with a 5% commission is that it begs for a \$20+ bet; otherwise it's much more than a 5% commission due to breakage. Plus, even 5% makes the edge too high for a player-friendly one roll bet. Both factors would tend to reduce the appeal to novice players who would be making bets they understand while they figure out how the passline works, but who aren't likely to make \$20 bets.

My goal with those bets was to produce the "simplest bets on the table" and with a 4-to-5 pay on craps rolls the edges are only 1.1%. That's lower on a per-bet basis than any independent wager in the game (discounting the free odds, obviously), though if a player bets it every roll it will outperform several other wagers due to the higher per-roll edge. The procedure for a 4-to-5 pay on craps numbers is somewhat cumbersome but not meaningfully more so than paying 2x or 3x on the field, and it happens just as infrequently.

Like I said, I'm not focusing on marketing them right now, but the Odd and Even craps bets are unconditionally approved in two states and I'll be happy to provide a free lease to any interested and qualified casino operator.

As a craps player I understand and agree exactly with ME's reasoning on this bet. And I would play it. Keeping the bet available at the table min (\$5 or \$10) would be key to people playing the bet. And the short pay on the craps rolls is not going to bother most of the people. I can even see the dumber players deciding to 'insure' their odd/even bet with a \$1 Any Craps every time, like they do with their come out roll P/L protection.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Wizard
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Joined: Oct 14, 2009
January 4th, 2016 at 4:55:10 PM permalink
Here is another idea. Pay the full even money. The catch? The player cannot bet more on odd/even than he has on all the other proposition (one roll) bets.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
January 4th, 2016 at 6:41:14 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

What are you talking about now? I've never seen a table at Caesars Palace being operated without a boxman.

When were you last at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas?

The last time they had boxmen almost NINE years ago.

Are you confusing boxmen with floormen? Boxmen sit in front of the bank of chips. No one sits anymore. A floorman stands where there used to be a boxman and he supervises the two base dealers who now handle the chores of the boxman.

Read this which includes an archived article from Gaming Wire and the Las Vegas Review Journal about the decision in August 2007 to eliminate boxmen. I'm quoted in the article by Rod Smith.

AlanMendelson
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January 4th, 2016 at 6:42:07 PM permalink
delete duplicate
MathExtremist
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Joined: Aug 31, 2010
January 4th, 2016 at 9:17:05 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is another idea. Pay the full even money. The catch? The player cannot bet more on odd/even than he has on all the other proposition (one roll) bets.

It'd work from a money standpoint but I don't know that I'd want to force a novice to make a horn-high-yo bet in order to make a \$5 Even wager. Under that scenario they'd be better off playing roulette than in craps, and that's something I'm trying to change because we need more dice players. Also, assuming the player is going to bet the props anyway, that's a lot of extra work for the dealers for no extra win. Hard to see why the casino would deliberately slow down the game without a compelling benefit to compensate.

On the other hand, the potential performance of the Odd or Even bets using a 1.1% edge (with the approved short-pay on craps rolls) is surprisingly strong due to the combination of required minimum wager and resolution time. Consider a \$1 hard 6. That has a 9.1% edge for an average of 3.27 rolls = \$0.0278/roll in theoretical win. Compare with \$5 Even, which has a 1.1% edge for 1 roll = \$0.0555/roll in win, exactly twice as much. It's counterintuitive at first but there it is. A constant \$5 Even bettor is worth twice as much to the casino as a constant \$1 Hard 6 bettor.

And think of the possibilities for Martingaling...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
AlanMendelson
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January 5th, 2016 at 2:49:23 AM permalink
Who says the bet has to be fair? Bet six to win five. Leave it at that.
MathExtremist
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January 5th, 2016 at 12:09:08 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Who says the bet has to be fair? Bet six to win five. Leave it at that.

Would you really play a 50-50 proposition where you need to bet 6 to win 5? Do you know what the house edge is under those rules?

I'm happy to fade you at coin-flipping if you're willing to take that bet.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Wizard
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Joined: Oct 14, 2009
January 5th, 2016 at 3:56:32 PM permalink
Here is my latest idea. Please note I am claiming all rights with this posting. Pretty similar concept to ME's version, but this keeps all the pays in half units.

Even Bet

Number Pays Combinations Probability Return
2 3 1 0.027778 0.083333
4 1 3 0.083333 0.083333
6 0.5 5 0.138889 0.069444
8 0.5 5 0.138889 0.069444
10 1 3 0.083333 0.083333
12 3 1 0.027778 0.083333
Odd -1 18 0.500000 -0.500000
Total 36 1.000000 -0.027778

Odd Bet

Number Pays Combinations Probability Return
3 1.5 2 0.055556 0.083333
5 1 4 0.111111 0.111111
7 0.5 6 0.166667 0.083333
9 1 4 0.111111 0.111111
11 1.5 2 0.055556 0.083333
Even -1 18 0.500000 -0.500000
Total 36 1.000000 -0.027778

Same 2.78% house edge as on the liberal version of the field bet.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Dalex64
• Posts: 1067
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
January 5th, 2016 at 7:39:52 PM permalink
That's interesting because you can put \$2 on both odd and even and win sometimes.

6,7,8 lose \$1 (16 ways)
4,5,9,10 break even (14 ways)
3,11 win \$1 (4 ways)
2,12 win \$6 (2 ways)

16 ways to lose \$1 against 4 x \$1 + 2 x \$6 = \$16

Does that make it a break-even game?
Wizard
• Posts: 26626
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
January 5th, 2016 at 7:45:21 PM permalink
Here is the return table putting one unit on each bet.

Number Pays Combinations Probability Return
2 2 1 0.027778 0.055556
3 0.5 2 0.055556 0.027778
4 0 3 0.083333 0.000000
5 0 4 0.111111 0.000000
6 -0.5 5 0.138889 -0.069444
7 -0.5 6 0.166667 -0.083333
8 -0.5 5 0.138889 -0.069444
9 0 4 0.111111 0.000000
10 0 3 0.083333 0.000000
11 0.5 2 0.055556 0.027778
12 2 1 0.027778 0.055556
Total 36 1.000000 -0.055556

House edge of 5.5556%/2 = 2.77778%.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Dalex64
• Posts: 1067
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
January 5th, 2016 at 7:49:24 PM permalink
Thanks! I thought the house edge should end up the same but couldn't figure it out in my head.

You could even add that as a separate bet, maybe called "rares" since the most rare numbers win and the most common numbers lose.

But then again, it looks pretty similar to a field bet, but more complicated to pay/rake.
NokTang
• Posts: 1314
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
January 6th, 2016 at 12:55:12 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

When were you last at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas?

The last time they had boxmen almost NINE years ago.p

Thanks for your reply. While I don't think nine years, it has been a few. I didn't play craps there last visit either. I'll defer to your ongoing experiences on this one. Happy New Year

ps: The boxmen used to be very friendly folks, especially the big black guy. Don't recall his name but he looked great in a nice suit and was there to serve the customer and appreciated their play.
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
January 6th, 2016 at 9:35:41 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Would you really play a 50-50 proposition where you need to bet 6 to win 5? Do you know what the house edge is under those rules?

I'm happy to fade you at coin-flipping if you're willing to take that bet.

NO, I would not make the bet.

But why not offer the bet to casinos? I see an opportunity for selling a new bet to a casino and making some money from it. Wizard sell 'em the bet. Just let me do the marketing!

ME I also don't do the Big 6, Big 8 bets which pay even money.

More importantly, I want to find out when was the last time Noktang was at Caesars Palace? This guy has criticized me for everything I wrote here and he doesn't know Caesars eliminated boxmen years ago?
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
January 6th, 2016 at 9:37:40 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

ps: The boxmen used to be very friendly folks, especially the big black guy. Don't recall his name but he looked great in a nice suit and was there to serve the customer and appreciated their play.

I think that was the gentleman who had the heart transplant.
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
January 6th, 2016 at 9:41:31 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is my latest idea. Please note I am claiming all rights with this posting. Pretty similar concept to ME's version, but this keeps all the pays in half units.

Even Bet

Number Pays Combinations Probability Return
2 3 1 0.027778 0.083333
4 1 3 0.083333 0.083333
6 0.5 5 0.138889 0.069444
8 0.5 5 0.138889 0.069444
10 1 3 0.083333 0.083333
12 3 1 0.027778 0.083333
Odd -1 18 0.500000 -0.500000
Total 36 1.000000 -0.027778

Odd Bet

Number Pays Combinations Probability Return
3 1.5 2 0.055556 0.083333
5 1 4 0.111111 0.111111
7 0.5 6 0.166667 0.083333
9 1 4 0.111111 0.111111
11 1.5 2 0.055556 0.083333
Even -1 18 0.500000 -0.500000
Total 36 1.000000 -0.027778

Same 2.78% house edge as on the liberal version of the field bet.

Too complicated for the dealers. :-)
NokTang
• Posts: 1314
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
January 6th, 2016 at 3:35:04 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

More importantly, I want to find out when was the last time Noktang was at Caesars Palace? This guy has criticized me for everything I wrote here and he doesn't know Caesars eliminated boxmen years ago?

It would help if you grew up. I get enough of the childlike conduct from the Filipino's over here.....

I said clearly and concisely that I would concede the boxman timetable as my experiences were limited. No need to go into a as I say, childlike hissy fit. I still seriously doubt you can walk up to a craps table and place a \$50,000.usd wager without pit supervision. Maybe time will tell us?

You have not be criticized.....facts have been pointed out to the members such as your seeing 18 yo's in a row at Caesars being nothing but a fantasy of yours. That's all. That along with some of your other claims regarding "dice influence" etc.. Not critical, just advising the few who don't know, it's all a big joke. You are a funny guy. "while the waiter prepared my dinner"......funny. Room service to the extreme or what? Thanks again.
Wizard
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Joined: Oct 14, 2009
January 6th, 2016 at 3:51:12 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

It would help if you grew up.

Personal insult. Three-day suspension.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
• Posts: 6763
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January 6th, 2016 at 6:34:04 PM permalink
Quote: Dalex64

That's interesting because you can put \$2 on both odd and even and win sometimes.

6,7,8 lose \$1 (16 ways)
4,5,9,10 break even (14 ways)
3,11 win \$1 (4 ways)
2,12 win \$6 (2 ways)

16 ways to lose \$1 against 4 x \$1 + 2 x \$6 = \$16

Does that make it a break-even game?

Is this a poor man's Horn bet?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci