scepticus
• Posts: 57
Joined: Oct 16, 2013
February 12th, 2014 at 8:37:50 PM permalink
What is my Edge in Roulette ?
Leaving aside the zero / s for the moment.
If I bet only one column in two dozens I bet 8 numbers. This is 1/3 x 2/3 and if I win I get paid correct odds of 7 / 2.
The chance of choosing any 2 dozens from 3 is 1 in 3 , but what if I could get this down to 1 in 2 ? After factoring in the 1 zero or 2 zeros what edge do I have ?
Thanks.
Tomspur
• Posts: 2019
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
February 12th, 2014 at 8:48:55 PM permalink
Quote: scepticus

What is my Edge in Roulette ?
Leaving aside the zero / s for the moment.
If I bet only one column in two dozens I bet 8 numbers. This is 1/3 x 2/3 and if I win I get paid correct odds of 7 / 2.
The chance of choosing any 2 dozens from 3 is 1 in 3 , but what if I could get this down to 1 in 2 ? After factoring in the 1 zero or 2 zeros what edge do I have ?
Thanks.

Not sure I udnerstand you 100% but as far as I know you can never alter the HE on Roulette unless you cheat. It will always be 5.26% for double zero and 2.7% for single zero, no matter what you do.

If you have a biased wheel or you cheat then you could make a difference. No betting system I know of can change the numbers.

Not sure I answered you but I did the best I could.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
EvenBob
• Posts: 28755
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
February 12th, 2014 at 8:54:11 PM permalink
No matter what convoluted combo of bets you
come up with, the edge never changes. All
bets in roulette are the same, the layout is
an illusion. The basket bet has different HE,
it's higher. Look at the layout as a math game,
a puzzle where the answer is always the same
no matter where you bet. You lose at the HE.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
scepticus
• Posts: 57
Joined: Oct 16, 2013
February 12th, 2014 at 8:54:18 PM permalink
Thanks Tomspur and Evenbob
Just regard it as a maths question with no preconceptions.
FleaStiff
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Joined: Oct 19, 2009
February 12th, 2014 at 10:37:44 PM permalink
Quote: scepticus

but what if I could get this down to 1 in 2 ? After factoring in the 1 zero or 2 zeros what edge do I have ?
Thanks.

But nothing. The casino has the edge. It is 5.26 percent against you. No matter what sort of "but what if" you come up with.
You can not eliminate one of the dozens by sound of the wheel or something and then bet on the other two.

The answer is 5.26 percent whether you want to hear that answer or not. Its 5.26 percent. That's all she wrote. 5.26 percent.
endermike
• Posts: 584
Joined: Dec 10, 2013
February 13th, 2014 at 7:00:50 AM permalink
https://wizardofodds.com/games/roulette/

This link should give you a bit more of what you are lookng for. If you still have questions after reading that, come back and pose the question again.
scepticus
• Posts: 57
Joined: Oct 16, 2013
February 13th, 2014 at 8:42:18 AM permalink
Thanks Endermike but I had already read that article- and many more.
So, come on Guys, give me the answer to my question.
endermike
• Posts: 584
Joined: Dec 10, 2013
February 13th, 2014 at 8:57:03 AM permalink
Please re phrase your question it is clear to me what you were asking. Is it something related to being able to eliminate possible outcomes and then calculating the HE based on this restricted set of possible outcomes?
scepticus
• Posts: 57
Joined: Oct 16, 2013
February 13th, 2014 at 10:00:32 AM permalink
Yes.
If 2 from 3 can be reduced to 1 in 2 what is the edge.?
endermike
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Joined: Dec 10, 2013
February 13th, 2014 at 10:21:20 AM permalink
Ignoring HE for the moment, on a 1 out of 3 bet you should be paid 3 for every 1 you bet. Assuming a 2:1 payout, on a 1 out 2 event your edge is: 50%.
(+2)*.5+(-1)*.5=+.5

1 zero: (+2)*(12/25+(-1)*(13/25)=11/25=44.0%
2 zero: (+2)*(12/26+(-1)*(14/26)=10/26=38.5%
BleedingChipsSlowly
• Posts: 1033
Joined: Jul 9, 2010
February 13th, 2014 at 10:24:58 AM permalink
Quote: scepticus

Yes.
If 2 from 3 can be reduced to 1 in 2 what is the edge.?

After factoring the zeros, the HE is 2.63% on a single-zero wheel and 5.26% on a double-zero wheel. No betting system will change that.
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
scepticus
• Posts: 57
Joined: Oct 16, 2013
February 13th, 2014 at 10:31:49 AM permalink
Thanks Endermike. Much appreciated.
24Bingo
• Posts: 1348
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
February 15th, 2014 at 4:02:50 PM permalink
Are you asking about a warped wheel? If you have a 1 in 2 chance of hitting a 2:1 bet, you've got a 50% edge. If you have an 18/37 chance, you've got a 45.9% edge. 18/38, 42.1%

In the future, you might want to use the phrase "warped wheel" so that people will know what you're talking about. A lot of people seem to be assuming that you're talking about a betting system. You might be, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

EDIT: Never mind. You are.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
Keyser
• Posts: 2106
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
February 15th, 2014 at 4:38:49 PM permalink
Quote: Scepticus

What is my Edge in Roulette ?
Leaving aside the zero / s for the moment.
If I bet only one column in two dozens I bet 8 numbers. This is 1/3 x 2/3 and if I win I get paid correct odds of 7 / 2.
The chance of choosing any 2 dozens from 3 is 1 in 3 , but what if I could get this down to 1 in 2 ? After factoring in the 1 zero or 2 zeros what edge do I have ?
Thanks

Why did you think this would give you an edge?

The wizardofodds.com has a great link that explains the payoff and odds of the different bets. It's a must read for all new players.
FleaStiff
• Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
February 15th, 2014 at 5:14:19 PM permalink
Quote: scepticus

but what if I could get this down to 1 in 2 ?

You can't get it down to 1 in 2. There are three "dozens" on a roulette wheel and therefore it is 1 in 3 at all times, no matter what the wheel sounds like or the chicken entrails revealed.
scepticus
• Posts: 57
Joined: Oct 16, 2013
February 16th, 2014 at 8:43:37 AM permalink
Gamblers face a disadvantage when they bet ?
WOW ! Why didn't I think of that ?
soxfan
• Posts: 364
Joined: Oct 10, 2013
February 16th, 2014 at 8:58:28 AM permalink
Quote: scepticus

Gamblers face a disadvantage when they bet ?
WOW ! Why didn't I think of that ?

Not all gamblers, the evenbob-spike wins 72% of his placed bet at the roulettes tables, hey hey.
" Life is a well of joy; but where the rabble drinks too, all wells are poisoned!" Nietzsche
gpac1377
• Posts: 676
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February 16th, 2014 at 9:11:42 AM permalink
Quote: scepticus

Gamblers face a disadvantage when they bet ?
WOW ! Why didn't I think of that ?

"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
AxiomOfChoice
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February 16th, 2014 at 1:11:57 PM permalink
Quote: soxfan

Not all gamblers, the evenbob-spike wins 72% of his placed bet at the roulettes tables, hey hey.

I've often wondered if people actually believe this nonsense, or if it's just pure trolling.
Keyser
• Posts: 2106
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
February 16th, 2014 at 1:24:15 PM permalink
Quote: Scepticus

Gamblers face a disadvantage when they bet ?
WOW ! Why didn't I think of that ?

Scepticus,

I sense that you believe you have a way to beat this game with a system?
scepticus
• Posts: 57
Joined: Oct 16, 2013
February 16th, 2014 at 3:35:06 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

Scepticus,

I sense that you believe you have a way to beat this game with a system?

My favoured bet is an 8 /1 shot that wins much more than it loses so I smile when I often read that I MUST lose in some undefined " Long Run" . I don't claim that I will win in the Long Run - whenever that may be - only that I win in the Here and Now. That is quite sufficient for me.
.So far as I am concerned all talk of the Long Run is just " noise" .It has no relevance in choosing WHAT and WHEN to bet and at what odds ,and it is that - and only that- which determines whether you win or lose.
My bets are variable depending on a few past results - Sacre Bleu !- so I also reject that other misconception , we can't use previous numbers in our attempt to " beat the odds ".
Buzzard
• Posts: 6814
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
February 16th, 2014 at 3:42:46 PM permalink
I am willing to bet the Here and Now will disappear when a witness is there ! All those negative vibes from non-believers.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Keyser
• Posts: 2106
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
February 16th, 2014 at 4:28:35 PM permalink
Quote: Scepticus

My bets are variable depending on a few past results

What do the last spins tell you?
scepticus
• Posts: 57
Joined: Oct 16, 2013
February 16th, 2014 at 5:18:49 PM permalink
[Sounds like a question to a medium !
They tell me that some things are more likely than others..
scepticus
• Posts: 57
Joined: Oct 16, 2013
February 16th, 2014 at 5:25:30 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

I am willing to bet the Here and Now will disappear when a witness is there ! All those negative vibes from non-believers.

But there have been witnesses.They just think I have been lucky though they don't know how I choose my bets. .Do you really think anyone would divulge something that was steadily winning?
I bet this one on every spin and walk when I win or at break-even . Why shouldn't I ?
Beethoven9th
• Posts: 5072
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
February 16th, 2014 at 5:32:39 PM permalink
Quote: scepticus

They tell me that some things are more likely than others..

Uh, no. (See Gambler's Fallacy)
Fighting BS one post at a time!
FleaStiff
• Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
February 16th, 2014 at 5:46:37 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Uh, no. (See Gambler's Fallacy)

(Sarcasm On)Reading Gambler's Fallacy is what will make you lose, they are dependent acts.(Sarcasm Off).
Beethoven9th
• Posts: 5072
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
February 16th, 2014 at 6:01:31 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Reading Gambler's Fallacy is what will make you lose, they are dependent acts.

Huh?
Fighting BS one post at a time!
rob45
• Posts: 251
Joined: Jul 24, 2013
February 16th, 2014 at 6:09:12 PM permalink
Perhaps I'm overlooking a vital piece of information, but why do I get the feeling this thread should have originated in the betting systems forum?
scepticus
• Posts: 57
Joined: Oct 16, 2013
February 16th, 2014 at 6:10:07 PM permalink
Actually , in the field of betting , mathematicians have themselves proved some things ARE more likely than others.
So the only question is - Can we make use of this.?
scepticus
• Posts: 57
Joined: Oct 16, 2013
February 16th, 2014 at 6:11:53 PM permalink
Quote: rob45

Perhaps I'm overlooking a vital piece of information, but why do I get the feeling this thread should have originated in the betting systems forum?[/q

As it has developed I think you are right.

Beethoven9th
• Posts: 5072
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
February 16th, 2014 at 6:18:51 PM permalink
Quote: scepticus

mathematicians have themselves proved some things ARE more likely than others.

You didn't read this, did you?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
Fighting BS one post at a time!
Keyser
• Posts: 2106
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
February 16th, 2014 at 6:31:36 PM permalink
Scepticus,

What are you trying to say about mathematicians? What's your point?
Ibeatyouraces
• Posts: 11933
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February 16th, 2014 at 7:09:55 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
scepticus
• Posts: 57
Joined: Oct 16, 2013
February 17th, 2014 at 9:03:25 AM permalink
Quote: rob45

Perhaps I'm overlooking a vital piece of information, but why do I get the feeling this thread should have originated in the betting systems forum?

Have continued this in the betting forum but no CERTAINTIES are implied.
scepticus