Big 6 Conundrum

I have recently started working for a very prominent asian casino (not in macao) and I'm having a little issue with the hold % for one of the games. The game in question is Big Wheel (or Big 6) as called in the US.

Here are the rules of the game here. It is played on a 54 hole wheel with the following paytable:
$1
$2
$5
$10
$20
Logo 1
Logo 2...both are paid at 40-1

So the hold % range from 11 to 24% and should run true especially in a casino where the action on this table is pretty high, I would say on average about 30 spins per hour. The casino is open for 20 hours every day and the action is relatively non stop. Also the drop on this game is very high due to a lot of patrons using it to exchange money for chips only ( i once worked it out that the hold % differs marginally dependant on the buy in being with chips or with cash but I have no substantive proof of this and I have no idea how I did it :) ).

Now, knowing all these factors and taking into account normal casino leakage, which I know is hard to work out exactly, what are the chances of this game only holding 7% for the year?

All I'm going to say is that the drop is more than $200 million for these two tables alone........

Any input would be greatly appreciated.

PS: I thought I would add that the game only held 9% in 2011 and 11% in 2010 off of substantial drops as well.

The average bet obviously matters a lot, but I'll leave the odds question to the Wizard and his many apprentices.

I am wondering if the staff has been constant since 2010?

The obvious final question... are you confident that the is the wheel fair?

I used to deal this at a carnival many years ago. Unlike roulette, it is not at all difficult to have a dealer hit certain spots on the big 6 wheel, specifically the areas around the 40-1 payoffs. If this wheel gets the kind of play you say it does, it wouldn't be difficult at all for a dealer to collude with a player and hit the logos more often than the math would dictate for random spins.

Check your dealers, track the wheel results and see if the big payouts are skewed.

The OP mentioned "leakage". I'm not a casino management professional, so I'm not familiar with that term. But based on my other business experience I'd say it refers to the game "leaking" money either through dealer errors, cheating players and the like. Is that correct?

If it is correct and without running any numbers. I'd say his wheel has an issue. Either it's not completely a true wheel. Or he has some AP's taking advantage of a predictable spin by some dealers. Or worse collusion between players and dealers. Seem like this game is prone to that. Maybe Elliott or the Wiz could give us a more informed opinion, I'd be interested to hear it.

Quote: Tommyhotspur

...So the hold % range from 11 to 24% and should run true...

Don't confuse "hold" with "edge".

The edge is the mathematical advantage the house has, and depending on the game, is easy to calculate. On Big 6, anyone with a pencil and half a brain can figure it out. You're right. It ranges from 11% to 24%

The hold is the difference between the cash dropped and the chips taken away, and factors in the average bet. It can be a horribly complex formula. In a typical game, where players cycle thru their buy in several times, the hold should be considerably more than the edge. In your game, where most of patrons use the game as something of a cashier to buy chips, the hold should be lower.

But lower than the edge? I'm not sure about that, and would agree with the other posters that there may be something fishy going on.

Win rate for a Big Six wheel "should" be 20 percent, even though Gaming Board dumps Big Six into "other" category.

Is wheel spun in alternating directions?

Quote: DJTeddyBear

In your game, where most of patrons use the game as something of a cashier to buy chips, the hold should be lower.

I think it's partly this and partly predictable spinning. I often see then Big Six wheel empty most of the time at Vegas casinos, so I wouldn't be shocked if some randoms bought in for $100, play a few $5 wagers and then leave. This can lead to holds lower than the house edge because you are NOT playing through your buy-in at least one time.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

But lower than the edge? I'm not sure about that, and would agree with the other posters that there may be something fishy going on.

What if players are buying in with cash to get chips and then not making a wager on the game. Basically just buying chips. I think this could explain the hold being lower than the house edge. They could also be buying in for a large amount and only making one small bet before leaving the table.

Quote: DRich

What if players are buying in with cash to get chips and then not making a wager on the game. Basically just buying chips. I think this could explain the hold being lower than the house edge. They could also be buying in for a large amount and only making one small bet before leaving the table.

This is my main concern. the fact that these games are being used as a "bank" to exchange money and that no play takes place here. The only play is a random bet or two and then moving onto games with much larger action and "playing behind".

This would make sense to me that this is the reason hy this game is prone to very small hold %'s and why the drops are so big.

Thanks DJ, I was typing this question right at the death of night here so my hed wasn't work right. There is a big difference between house edge and hold :)

Anyway I'm going to keep a close eye on this game as I feel 1) it is eating up floor space and 2) I see no point in paying dealers when the holds are as weak as they are.

This game isn't going the way of the dodo....its dead!!!

If anyone has any alterior reasons for my prognosis above, please let me know......

PS: The average bet is about $10 to $15, very weak!!!

Thanks again.

Quote: Tommyhotspur

Now, knowing all these factors and taking into account normal casino leakage, which I know is hard to work out exactly, what are the chances of this game only holding 7% for the year?

In practice, a 7% hold points to nearly certain game protection issue.

You may be getting hit from two directions. First, you may have spinners who are good enough to time their spins so that the 40-to-1 payouts are player favorable for their friends. If the spinner excludes 16 spots from their landing zone and the player has the edge. Likewise, if the "flapper" is too stiff, or there is no "kick spin" or alternating right/left spins, then the Big 6 may be timed by APs. Finally, the Big 6 wheel is almost never tested for bias like a roulette wheel. The wheel itself may be weighted unevenly and may tend to settle in certain sectors more often.

The Big 6 wheel is very beatable, either by APs or crooks.

Quote: teliot

In practice, a 7% hold points to nearly certain game protection issue.

I think this is a very important point, but the simpler explanation is that it's being used as a bank. If the average player doesn't play their buy-in once, the hold will be lower than the edge. Doesn't mean for sure anything fishy is going on.

However, you should test the wheel for bias, as it could be getting run over by APs, or worse.

Quote: teliot

The Big 6 wheel is very beatable, either by APs or crooks.

I played the wheels in Vegas quite a bit in 2012. Was backed off 5 times. :( Not only is it pretty easy to beat, but the casinos are well aware of this as I am sure YOU of all people know. lol

A couple of problems with getting any kind of serious play on the wheel. Many local type stores don't even have the wheel. At many of the strip locations it is only operative during busy times, weekends and some evenings. And when the wheel is operating, few player bet any kind of real money. It is mostly $1 bets on the long shots, with occasional $5, 2-1 or even money wagers. If you wager anything more than $5, you stand out.

I had pretty decent results with betting the wheel last year, but I see a very short future in it. Many locations have already gone to the electronic version (the one I see most is Aruze), which is of course more random. Of all the dealer operated games, I expect this one will go all electronic first and dealer operated versions will disappear in short order.

Um... the wheel does ONE HUNDRED FREAKING MILLION and holds 7%, thus making SEVEN FREAKING MILLION, and this is not enough to justify the dealer and floor space? Am I missing something here?

Quote: teliot

In practice, a 7% hold points to nearly certain game protection issue.

You may be getting hit from two directions. First, you may have spinners who are good enough to time their spins so that the 40-to-1 payouts are player favorable for their friends. If the spinner excludes 16 spots from their landing zone and the player has the edge. Likewise, if the "flapper" is too stiff, or there is no "kick spin" or alternating right/left spins, then the Big 6 may be timed by APs. Finally, the Big 6 wheel is almost never tested for bias like a roulette wheel. The wheel itself may be weighted unevenly and may tend to settle in certain sectors more often.

The Big 6 wheel is very beatable, either by APs or crooks.

I have already ordered all the wheel bias testing done just when I saw the hold over the last 3 years but the investigations are still pending. Also invetigating all dealer procedures for all games is taking up most of my time now.

I do think that the amount of money carried away from this table is an issue with no actual play to discern but my other concern is, and this is a big one for me, that there is no direct floor supervision on the game and that the dealers are able to count the money, put the drops into the table manager system and execute the change without as much as a single authorization from a floor person or pit boss. Surveillance has direct table coverage (of course) but they only investigate the wheel when there are drop issues (difference between table manager drop and actual). This, for me could be the single most leading issue they have here.......Dealers not being supervised being allowed to pass out whatever they want to whomever they want...................I rest my case.

The reason for my asking about the low hold % is just to see if any other viable explanation could be forthcoming other than the obvious dealer/player collusion.

You guys have been a great help, thanks

Quote: SOOPOO

Um... the wheel does ONE HUNDRED FREAKING MILLION and holds 7%, thus making SEVEN FREAKING MILLION, and this is not enough to justify the dealer and floor space? Am I missing something here?

Compared to the other games they have here.....it certainly is a waste of space......

Hard to imagine I know, but tiz true :)