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AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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November 4th, 2012 at 12:00:13 PM permalink
I dumped my shares of WYNN at $144.00 on 10/15, having booked a small win (about 2%, but I was just happy to not take a loss). Of course it promptly jumped 5% and is now trading in the $120s >:o

I'm still holding on to MGM and LVS, hoping to reclaim some of my losses. More than 10% in the hole right now. After I eventually dump these stocks, never going to try to be "smart" again, just low-cost ETFs, buy and forget.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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November 25th, 2012 at 7:16:02 PM permalink
As of today the Beijing-Guangzhou train construction is complete, test runs are being made and passenger service begins sometimes next month. The entire 1428 mile trip will take 8 hours, instead of the previous 20 hour trip a few years ago.

Guangzhou is still 70 miles from Macau, but even including this last transfer, Macau will now be considerably more convenient to hundreds of millions of people.



Keep in mind that the trains from frozen Manchuria are now beginning to operate into Beijing. So some of those people will be able to get to Macau by train as well.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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December 4th, 2012 at 5:03:34 AM permalink
Macau just reported it's seventh straight month of reasonable improvements in revenue.
May +7.3%
Jun +12.2%
Jul +1.5%
Aug +5.5%
Sept +12.3%
Oct +3.2%
Nov +7.9%

Those kind of revenue increases would be greeted with shouts of joy in the USA, but they seem so small compared to what we were used to in Macau.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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December 4th, 2012 at 10:41:30 AM permalink
China Tightens Reins on Macau - Police in Gambling Enclave, Mainland Detain Junket Operators; First Sign of a Corruption Crackdown
Wonder if this will have a substantial effect on the casinos' bottom lines.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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December 25th, 2012 at 11:47:54 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

As of today the Beijing-Guangzhou train construction is complete, test runs are being made and passenger service begins sometimes next month. The entire 1428 mile trip will take 8 hours, instead of the previous 20 hour trip a few years ago.
Guangzhou is still 70 miles from Macau, but even including this last transfer, Macau will now be considerably more convenient to hundreds of millions of people.



The completed rail line has begun commercial service on Wednesday when a train departed from Beijing at 9 a.m. for Guangzhou. Another train left Guangzhou for Beijing an hour later. Trains on this high-speed line will initially run at 300 kph (186 mph) with a total travel time of about eight hours.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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January 2nd, 2013 at 10:27:16 AM permalink
Holy $h!#!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-02/las-vegas-sands-wynn-rise-after-macau-gambling-gains-20-.html

Quote:

Casino revenue in the Chinese city jumped to 28.2 billion patacas ($3.5 billion) in December, trumping a record 27.7 billion patacas in October. Full-year revenue increased 14 percent to 304 billion patacas, also a record, from 268 billion patacas in 2011, according to data from Macauís Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.



On that news, LVS, MGM, and WYNN are up around 5-6% on the day. I already dumped WYNN at $114 and MGM at $11.88. Not kicking myself, I managed to get out without a loss and I'm swearing off speculating on individual stocks from now on (unless I actually put in the time and effort to be smart about it).

I'm still holding LVS and would be looking at about a $325 loss right now, however that doesn't account for the special dividend a couple weeks ago, which would more than wipe out that loss. Thinking about selling today...
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
UCivan
UCivan
Joined: Sep 3, 2011
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January 2nd, 2013 at 11:54:49 AM permalink
Before the "debt ceiling negotiation" in Congress and House, stocks will drop and then these guys will pass it and the stocks will go back up. This repeats what we saw in fiscal cliff. Time to make some serious money.
pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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January 4th, 2013 at 1:17:23 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Holy $h!#!!

Quote:

Casino revenue in the Chinese city jumped to 28.2 billion patacas ($3.5 billion) in December, trumping a record 27.7 billion patacas in October. Full-year revenue increased 14 percent to 304 billion patacas, also a record, from 268 billion patacas in 2011, according to data from Macauís Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.



Just looking at the two year growth, we see that December 2010 to December 2011 was the lowest increase for all of 2011. So naturally it was much easier to get a +19.6% increase from Dec 2011 to Dec 2012.

Mind you, it was still an all time record breaking month. But it is important not to be irrationally exuberant. The growth factors could easily return to single digits by next month.

On the other hand a 20 hour train trip was just reduced to 8 hours. That makes it much easier to come from Beijing for a 3 day break than before. If you sleep on a train you still have marathon 24 hours in Macau.

It's not just Beijing, but there are hundreds of millions of people within short commute along the rail line. They can all get to Macau in significantly less time.
UCivan
UCivan
Joined: Sep 3, 2011
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January 4th, 2013 at 1:27:50 PM permalink
AND the Chinese New Year is coming. I wonder if anyone has the picture of the long line for going through the Zhuhai-Macao border last year. I heard it was several miles long.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
  • Threads: 67
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January 4th, 2013 at 1:50:13 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Quote: AcesAndEights

Holy $h!#!!

Quote:

Casino revenue in the Chinese city jumped to 28.2 billion patacas ($3.5 billion) in December, trumping a record 27.7 billion patacas in October. Full-year revenue increased 14 percent to 304 billion patacas, also a record, from 268 billion patacas in 2011, according to data from Macauís Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.



Just looking at the two year growth, we see that December 2010 to December 2011 was the lowest increase for all of 2011. So naturally it was much easier to get a +19.6% increase from Dec 2011 to Dec 2012.

Mind you, it was still an all time record breaking month. But it is important not to be irrationally exuberant. The growth factors could easily return to single digits by next month.

On the other hand a 20 hour train trip was just reduced to 8 hours. That makes it much easier to come from Beijing for a 3 day break than before. If you sleep on a train you still have marathon 24 hours in Macau.

It's not just Beijing, but there are hundreds of millions of people within short commute along the rail line. They can all get to Macau in significantly less time.


The "Holy $h!#!" was mostly in response to the stock prices that day, 5-6% gains for LVS and WYNN at least.

I'm now out of all 3 casino companies I had bought. They're all up since I sold, oh well.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer

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