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Paradigm
Paradigm
Joined: Feb 24, 2011
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September 3rd, 2012 at 11:04:21 AM permalink
Paco, I always enjoy your Macau updates so thank you for providing them!

What annual Macau revenue growth rate do you think we will see over the next 3-5 years?

Your high speed train updates seem like they would be a near term catalyst to increase visitation from Bejing and the north, but maybe all the folks that want to come to Macau from those regions are already flying. Do you think the train will increase visitation or simply give those already coming another mode to get to Macau?
pacomartin
pacomartin
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September 3rd, 2012 at 4:23:16 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Your high speed train updates seem like they would be a near term catalyst to increase visitation from Bejing and the north, but maybe all the folks that want to come to Macau from those regions are already flying. Do you think the train will increase visitation or simply give those already coming another mode to get to Macau?



I don't think so. While Beijing airport is one of the busiest in the world (temporarily 2nd place behind Atlanta), the amount of air travel in Asia is still far far below what it is in North America and Europe.

Japanese are far and away the citizens that are most likely to ride a train. An incredible 62 million train journeys are taken on an average day (out of a population of 126 million). But the average train ride is less than 7 miles.

Chinese are the world leaders in long distance train travel. The average trip is 322 miles. Compare that with 72 miles in India, and 25 miles in Britain or Germany.

I don't think the Chinese have nearly the infrastructure to fly people. Plus remember that the train line will pass by hundreds of millions of people before they get to Beijing. Regional airports are pretty small in China.

A similar question came up when China announced that they could build a train to Europe that could get you from Beijing to London (5000 air miles) in 48 hours. Since such a project would be the largest single infrastructure project in the history of human civilization, many people wondered why they wouldn't just purchase a lot of jumbo jets. After all 5000 miles is about the distance from Los Angeles to London or Los Angeles to Tokyo. There are multiple air routes of 5000 miles or more that are very busy.

The answer seems to be that China doesn't think that it can build the air infrastructure that exists in the USA to move people around at relatively low cost. It is still worth it to spend all day on a train.
Paradigm
Paradigm
Joined: Feb 24, 2011
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September 3rd, 2012 at 5:45:41 PM permalink
I think I like that answer, you are saying that you believe the train will open up Macau to more visitors because air travel is not as widespread in Asia, correct?

You are a wealth of information......there needs to be a way to "folllow" (like you can on Twitter) members in the Forum :-).....it is a good way to get through a lot of the drivel posted and stick to posts from Members that actually add something useful/informative to the discussion.
HKrandom
HKrandom
Joined: Oct 1, 2010
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September 6th, 2012 at 2:52:29 AM permalink
I think reaching cities without an airport is very important. China has 305 cities with a population above 1,000,000 and nowhere near that number of airports so having a high speed train going directly to Macau would add a lot of convenience for people living in somewhat large cities that don't have access to a great infrastructure.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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September 6th, 2012 at 4:06:27 AM permalink
Quote: HKrandom

I think reaching cities without an airport is very important. China has 305 cities with a population above 1,000,000 and nowhere near that number of airports so having a high speed train going directly to Macau would add a lot of convenience for people living in somewhat large cities that don't have access to a great infrastructure.



Actually the train will go to Shenzhen (a sub-provincial urban area of 10 million) just immediately north of Hong Kong. The trains going directly to Hong Kong and Macau will be a few years yet. But if you can get to Shenzhen in 8 hours (from Beijing) or under from other cities, you can get to Macau by adding a 2 or 3 hours (i.e. within a travel day).

A third of Americans lives in rural places or urban places of 1/2 million or less. Allegiant tries to target communities of less than 1/2 million to bring them to Vegas. But China has more than 4 times the population of USA and far less air infrastructure.

A total of 305 cities is pretty impressive. USA has 9 cities over a million, but Detroit used to have almost 2 million people but is now just over 700K. San Jose will cross a million in a few years. Since city limits vary greatly in area, a more telling metric may be thatUSA has 51 metropolitan areas over a million, which contain slightly less than half the population.
Paradigm
Paradigm
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September 6th, 2012 at 7:57:16 AM permalink
Paco, I guess I misinterpreted your post on the November 2012 completion of the train routes. I thought that as of November 2012, the final piece of the rail line from Bejing to Macau would be completed and that currently the completed train routes don't extend north from Macau all the way to Bejing, but will later this year. Did I miss something in what you were trying to explain?
pacomartin
pacomartin
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September 6th, 2012 at 8:51:48 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Paco, I guess I misinterpreted your post on the November 2012 completion of the train routes. I thought that as of November 2012, the final piece of the rail line from Bejing to Macau would be completed and that currently the completed train routes don't extend north from Macau all the way to Bejing, but will later this year. Did I miss something in what you were trying to explain?



By the end of 2012 you will be able to sit in one seat and go the 1452.5 miles from Beijing to Shenzen at over 200 mph, but building the rail link for the last 22.5 miles through urban Hong Kong will take another 3 years. Then you will be able to get directly on the ferry to Macau.


They may also build a rail link directly to Macau, but it has not been decided.

It's almost the equivalent of saying that you can fly to JFK, but you can't get an express rail link to downtown Manhattan. Public transportation takes over an hour, involves three different trains, and costs $13.50

But in the case of Macau there is no underwater tunnel or bridge link, you must get on one of hundreds of ferries.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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October 28th, 2012 at 3:31:09 PM permalink
A critical 521 mile link of high speed rail (maximum speed 217 mph) in the center of China opened on 28 September 2012. The final link to Beijing (175 miles) with a maximum speed of 236 mph will open later this year putting Macau within an easy day's trip from Beijing for Chinese New Year's celebration.

October's numbers should be released by Friday.

34.8% Jan
22.3% Feb
24.4% Mar
21.9% Apr
7.3% May
12.2% Jun
1.5% Jul
5.5% Aug
12.3% Sept
ewjones080
ewjones080
Joined: Feb 22, 2012
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October 28th, 2012 at 3:39:01 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Asian's are frequently syndicate bettors, they're not betting their own money. A group gets together a lot of money and sends the best player to make the bets, and trusted overseer's to watch and make sure everything is kosher. They do it in the States too, all the time.



Absolutely true. There's a family that comes in where I work. We call them the Asian Invasion, or simply "The Crew".. cause they come in around midnight after closing their restaurant.
pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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November 3rd, 2012 at 10:33:24 AM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

October's numbers should be released by Friday.

34.8% Jan
22.3% Feb
24.4% Mar
21.9% Apr
7.3% May
12.2% Jun
1.5% Jul
5.5% Aug
12.3% Sept



+3.2% October

Despite the small percentage it was enough to set a new monthly record of 27.7 billion patacas ($3.4 billion). The old record was set 12 months ago.

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