Gaming Strategy: Holy Grail or Casino Myth

Is gaming strategy a necessity for a successful casino game? By this I am asking if players are more likely to gravitate toward games that offer a decision making opportunity or even the illusion of a decision making opportunity?

The most popular table game in any casino seems to be Blackjack ( I base this hypothesis purely on the number of Blackjack tables in any casino compared to any other table game). Blackjack offers players a choice to take a card or not take a card, however, many players (the majority) forfeit that choice and instead follow the advice of the little credit card sized charts available in the casino gift shop. But still, the choice to follow the advice of the little chart is a calculated strategy. From this I would conclude that players do prefer to have an opportunity of choice in their games. I would also point toward the popularity of Video Poker as another example of this.

However, the continued success of such games as Baccarat or Roulette are examples of games where the player simply predicts an outcome and then hopes for the best. Craps is even less involved than that, the bet choice is chosen by the dice on the 'come-out' roll, not by the player. These three games, however, offer something that Blackjack does not offer and that is variable payouts based on risk. Roulette has the 35 : 1 payout on a straight up bet, Baccarat has the 8 : 1 payout on a tie bet and Craps has Hardways and Horns.

(Momentary rant: I always thought it odd that Craps snobs blab on and on about how 'their' game has "the best odds in the whole damn casino", of course referring to the 'odds' bet behind the line bet. But then they insist on playing the Hardways which are among "the worst odds in the whole damn casino". Come up with a casino game that taps into that logic and you will surely have yourself a winner.)

My conclusion from these observations is this: A successful game can be one of two categories...
1. Your game has even money payouts or near even money payouts if it has a degree of player choice during game play, what we refer to as strategy play.... or .....
2. Your game has multiple large payouts based on differing risks that the player may choose from before the game starts and then the player is left with just hoping for the best.

So, you are probably asking yourself, why am I posting all these ramblings on a thread? I want to hear everyone's thoughts on this (or at least those of you who are inclined to share such thoughts) so that together we may divine what it is exactly that entertains the gambling community.

There is no single answer. That's why there are so many different games in casinos to begin with, and they rise and fall in popularity. Look up Faro, Red Dog, or Casino Solitaire. Or any of the thousands of slot machines that are no longer sold because they got replaced with newer or different models.

If there were a single game that fit everyone's appetites for gambling, we'd all be playing it already.

I think that successful games cater to one of two philosophies:
1) I am lucky, and only need an opportunity to win big.
2) I am skillful, and can apply that skill to overcome the house edge.

The point is not that "luck" actually exists, or that "skill" can actually overcome the house edge... It is whether players believe. Successful games feed the belief in either or both of the above.

Conversely, when games quickly wipe out buy-ins, providing little hope (which equates to "entertainment") for a big payday... they will not develop a following and will fail.

It seems to me that the "obvious" answer to the question is itself a question:

How much strategy is there in a slot machine?

Quote: ThatDonGuy

It seems to me that the "obvious" answer to the question is itself a question:

How much strategy is there in a slot machine?

Could be lots... See the multiple threads on "Vulturing" as well as "Must Hit By". There are shelves of books on Video Poker...

There is a narrow spectrum to casino game strategy: from None essentially, (Roulette, Baccarat) to simple strategy (Three Card Poker play queen-high+) to moderate (UTH).

Games that need a complex strategy (Double Draw Poker, Lunar poker) never seem to have wide popularity. People go to the casino to play, not to work, so a strategy has to be easy to see and fairly accurate on that "poker eye effect" alone.

This doesn't mean that the complete optimal strategy for a game is simple. It means that basic correct plays will get you 98% of the way there and play well for you; there's a tiny bit of room for growth into fine point plays. Pai Gow poker is generally well-played when the player properly plays two-pair hands and straights or flushes. But a player doesn't need to know the exact cut-off points for playing full houses that also contain flushes, as they are extremely rare.

There are games that pay even money (for the most part) and involve some strategy, such as blackjack and pai gow poker. There are also games that have some high payouts and involve strategy, such as video poker. There are games that involve no strategy and pay even money, such as baccarat. There are games that involve no strategy and have high payouts relative to bets, such as bingo.

As to whether which are most appealing. I do believe that in gambling as in every other human endeavor, people would rather leave their brains in the glove compartment. Gambling is fun; thinking is hard; therefore, for most of America's dimbulbs (who form the majority of the populace) thinking is antithetical to gambling. But even games with a significant strategy component can be played mindlessly.

The other factor is high payouts. Fantasizing about a big score adds to the entertainment value of gambling (regardless of how unrealistic such fantasies may be). Casinos know this and make the games that offer the highest relative payouts also have the highest vig (see:keno).

So there's a reason why slots are far and away the most popular gambling game. Mindless fun + the fantasy of a big payout. They're the crystal meth of the masses, to paraphrase Marx. (Karl, not Groucho or Harpo.)

Quote: VonVester

However, the continued success of such games as Baccarat or Roulette are examples of games where the player simply predicts an outcome and then hopes for the best. Craps is even less involved than that...

How is deciding whether to hit / stand in BJ or hold certain cards in video poker also not just predicting (or desiring) an outcome and then hoping for the best?


And, couldn't craps players argue that with all the betting and strategy options (pass vs dont, come, place, buy, odds, etc.), they have a lot more decisions to make than someone sitting there playing basic strategy BJ?

Quote: ECoaster

How is deciding whether to hit / stand in BJ or hold certain cards in video poker also not just predicting (or desiring) an outcome and then hoping for the best?

Because the player is making conscious decisions that affect his probabilities of winning, - of changing his outcome. This is a bit more participatory in the outcome than just hoping or predicting, the player is "steering" his hand and its chances.

Quote: ECoaster

And, couldn't craps players argue that with all the betting and strategy options (pass vs dont, come, place, buy, odds, etc.), they have a lot more decisions to make than someone sitting there playing basic strategy BJ?

Sure, absolutely. Every individual crap player is betting that the dice will take a particular path that is best suited to their own bet choices. People are betting they'll see more hardways than usual, or more horn numbers, or long rolls, or seven-outs, etc., anticipating results that'll fit their betting assumptions.

Quote: Paigowdan

Because the player is making conscious decisions that affect his probabilities of winning, - of changing his outcome.

If the player knows the optimal strategy, there is no decision to make... you just do what the rules say based on what is dealt. One could "decide" to play poorly, but why?

Perhaps I'm underestimating the entertainment value obtained by those playing clueless blackjack or video poker.

I prefer video(not old reel slots) to most other games. Games like UTH can be fun, baccarat isn't fun.
There's some fun VP games as well.

Quote: ECoaster

If the player knows the optimal strategy, there is no decision to make... you just do what the rules say based on what is dealt. One could "decide" to play poorly, but why?

I agree with this 100%. There really is only one way to play a given game of Blackjack or Video Poker and get the best return, and this is laid out for the player in a strategy card or a book. We as game designers and mathematicians or pseudo-mathematicians know this. However, when reading posts where someone is introducing a game idea, someone else will often comment on the lack or abundance of player strategy elements in the proposed game. So I am curious if perceived strategy play is important to game marketing success in today's market.

I am in awe of the success of Three Card Poker, but I am also mystified by the same success. Three Card Poker strategy is limited to a single decision by the player to either surrender the hand or match the 'ante' bet, and many players forfeit this option by playing 'blind', and as far as I can tell, do just as well as the players that take this decision very seriously. Without the PairPlus bet, which has no strategy at all, the game would be a complete bore in my humble opinion.

Just as a side note, I am guessing that the reason for the success of Three Card Poker is that the house advantage on the Ante/Play bets is so cleverly hidden that players perceive that they have been accidently given an advantage over the house. I have actually heard players on a table whispering this as they instruct other players to "avoid the PairPlus bet, as that one is to the house's advantage". I have a tremendous amount of admiration for the Three Card Poker game designer who came up with a house advantage (dealer needs a queen or better to qualify) that actually looks like a player advantage... kudos.

I believe 100% that for a new table game to succeed, players must feel like they are "actively participating" in the game. Generally that means a strategic decision is required.

The explanation for why Bacc, Craps, Roulette are so successful given their lack of strategy involves the fact that they have incredible history in their corner. Many would agree that Craps or Roulette would fail if introduced as a new game today. Craps due to the real estate & labor requirements and Roulette due to the equipment costs. Of course with the "belief" in dice control or being able to speed track a roulette wheel, maybe these superstition would propel them sufficiently if they were new games today...provided you could get a DTG to commit the capital and labor to unproven games...that would be a tall order.

The one anomaly in this space is Casino War....but again, it has the "history" of being a childhood game played by the vast majority of Americans in its corner. Most new game concepts won't have this going for them.

Comparing slots to table games and saying that since slots work, mindless game play can succeed at the tables fails to understand the dramatic differences that exist between most slot players vs. most table game players. It is rare that you will find a slot player that spends vary much time at a table game and vice versa for table games players...they are two very different creatures with the only similarity that they both enjoy the rush found in playing games of chance..

Quote: ECoaster

If the player knows the optimal strategy, there is no decision to make... you just do what the rules say based on what is dealt. One could "decide" to play poorly, but why?

Perhaps I'm underestimating the entertainment value obtained by those playing clueless blackjack or video poker.

There is entertainment value to these games.
The strategy that a player plays is not written in stone, as most close decisions can go well or badly either way - and that's assuming the player is a strategy geek with flawless knowledge. The seat-of-your-pants thrill occurs on selecting a play to make, even by rote if known, and seeing how it does, money-wise.

Quote: Paigowdan

There is entertainment value to these games.
<snip>
The seat-of-your-pants thrill occurs on selecting a play to make, even by rote if known, and seeing how it does, money-wise.

That is my game, in a nutshell.
Thx Dan