Deuces Wild - Keeping KQs, KJs, or KTs is sometimes incorrect, despite no penalty cards?

According to WinPoker (awesome program), it says to keep nothing in the following hand: 6c 4c 3d Kh Qh, but then says to keep that 2 to a royal in this hand: 8c 4d 3c Kh Qh. Neither of those hands contain penalty cards, yet are different, how? VP Strategy Master says to keep KQs, KJs, or KTs when there are no penalty cards. And yes, I'm aware this is an unnecessarily advanced move, and gains very little, but I just want to know why it matters what non-penalty cards there are.

Dunno, but just a wild guess: the 8 is better 'cause you can make more straights from it?

Quote: SilentBob420BMFJ

According to WinPoker (awesome program), it says to keep nothing in the following hand: 6c 4c 3d Kh Qh, but then says to keep that 2 to a royal in this hand: 8c 4d 3c Kh Qh. Neither of those hands contain penalty cards, yet are different, how? VP Strategy Master says to keep KQs, KJs, or KTs when there are no penalty cards. And yes, I'm aware this is an unnecessarily advanced move, and gains very little, but I just want to know why it matters what non-penalty cards there are.

It could depend on the paytable, but using following deuces paytable, I get the following results:

Hand	Pay
royal	800
4deuce	200
wldRyl	25
5OAK	15
str_fl	11
4OAK	4
fh	4
fl	3
str	2
3OAK	1

KH QH 6C 4C 3D	royal	4deuce	wldRyl	5OAK	str_fl	4OAK	fh	fl	str	3OAK	nada	Expected Pay
KH QH -- -- --	1	0	34	0	15	62	54	314	498	1435	13802	0.348566142460684
-- -- -- -- --	3	43	378	454	1641	21705	7602	9014	45072	223944	1224083	0.328350084325387

KH QH 8C 4D 3C	royal	4deuce	wldRyl	5OAK	str_fl	4OAK	fh	fl	str	3OAK	nada	Expected Pay
KH QH -- -- --	1	0	34	0	15	62	54	314	498	1435	13802	0.348566142460684
-- -- -- -- --	3	43	378	454	1556	21713	7602	9091	43675	224208	1225216	0.326262647993173

So, it looks like throwing away everything pays better when you have the 6c/4c because you will have more chances of getting straights and straight flushes starting at 7c and higher. With the 8c/3c, straights and straight flushes start with a 9c and higher. If your paytable is slightly different, then this might tilt the scales and make you choose differently.

Quote: CrystalMath

... So, it looks like throwing away everything pays better when you have the 6c/4c because ....

I don't play video games, so once again I am asking this out of ignorance.

Yes, your data suggests that throwing away everything from the first hand is slightly better than throwing away everything from the second hand. But it's still better to keep the KQ suited in either case, isn't it? I think the OP said that different actions were recommended.

Quote: Doc

I don't play video games, so once again I am asking this out of ignorance.

Yes, your data suggests that throwing away everything from the first hand is slightly better than throwing away everything from the second hand. But it's still better to keep the KQ suited in either case, isn't it? I think the OP said that different actions were recommended.

You are correct: using the paytable that I have listed, it is better to keep the King and Queen in both cases. But, the paytable used to pose the original question may be slightly different causing the 6c/3c to pay higher than the K/Q while the 8c/4c may pay lower. If I get details on the exact paytable used, I'll post again.

Quote: SilentBob420BMFJ

According to WinPoker (awesome program), it says to keep nothing in the following hand: 6c 4c 3d Kh Qh, but then says to keep that 2 to a royal in this hand: 8c 4d 3c Kh Qh. Neither of those hands contain penalty cards, yet are different, how? VP Strategy Master says to keep KQs, KJs, or KTs when there are no penalty cards. And yes, I'm aware this is an unnecessarily advanced move, and gains very little, but I just want to know why it matters what non-penalty cards there are.

The exception is because the 3 low cards do not reduce as many straight possibilities

Let me clear some things up:

I'm playing FPDW, which is not the pay table listed above. 25/15/9/5/3/2/2/1 is the pay table.

The hands I listed are 2 different hands. I simply came across the first one while playing, and when it said I made the wrong move by holding the KQ, I was shocked. I looked and saw no penalty cards, and confirmed that the strategy was correct via VPSM. So what I did was I went into the analyze any hand mode, and simply starting changing the other 3 cards, seeing if it ever told me to keep the KQ, which it did when I came across the second hand I listed.

Again, none of those 3 cards in either hand are penalty cards, so I don't see why you wouldn't keep the KQ in both hands. I mean the whole "more straight possibilities" or whatever makes no sense to me, because if you're keeping KQ in either hand, you can't get a straight with a low card, and if you're throwing away the entire hand, well then if anything, wouldn't it be worse to throw away the first hand (the one you're supposed to throw everything away), because you're throwing away a 346, whereas in the second hand (the one that it says to keep the KQ), you're throwing away 348, which can't be a straight?

https://wizardofodds.com/deuceswild/appendix1.html

Well, turns out that Bob Dancer (man behind WinPoker) is right on this one. It may be hard to intuitively understand, but the math doesn't lie.

When you throw away everything with the 8/4/3, you are eliminating more potential straights when the five new cards are dealt. It is easier to see the straight flushes, though. When you throw away the 8c and 4c, any club straight flush must be 9c, 10c, Jc, Qc, Kc. If, however, you throw away the 6c and 4c, the replacement straight flushes can have 7c, 8c, or 9c as the low card. This is why throwing away everything in this case pays slightly higher than throwing away everything in the other case. I know, clear as mud.

KH QH 6C 4C 3D	royal	4deuce	wldRyl	5OAK	str_fl	4OAK	fh	fl	str	3OAK	nada	Expected Pay
-- -- -- -- --	3	43	378	454	1641	21705	7602	9014	45072	223944	1224083	0.329528097271143
KH QH -- -- --	1	0	34	0	15	62	54	314	498	1435	13802	0.327844588344125

KH QH 8C 4D 3C	royal	4deuce	wldRyl	5OAK	str_fl	4OAK	fh	fl	str	3OAK	nada	Expected Pay
KH QH -- -- --	1	0	34	0	15	62	54	314	498	1435	13802	0.327844588344125
-- -- -- -- --	3	43	378	454	1556	21713	7602	9091	43675	224208	1225216	0.327506504495941

Just don't get frustrated because the play rules aren't perfect. Would you like to have 300 more rules that would occasionally save you a small fraction of a cent?

Quote: dm

Just don't get frustrated because the play rules aren't perfect. Would you like to have 300 more rules that would occasionally save you a small fraction of a cent?

Besides the fact that playing faster with +EV overpowers little mistakes, yes I would like about 4 more hands to save me a fraction of a cent, because I'm at the point where I've memorized it all, so I could take on several more hands. It's hard for me not to stop and check my decision once in a while, despite knowing that continuing on will make me more money, since the time spent looking it up is costing me money, but I like being perfect. Besides, being perfect will lower volatility theoretically (this is ignoring the fact that some hands like keeping KT suited instead of nothing to save 1 cent will actually increase it).

Quote: CrystalMath

Well, turns out that Bob Dancer (man behind WinPoker) is right on this one. It may be hard to intuitively understand, but the math doesn't lie.

When you throw away everything with the 8/4/3, you are eliminating more potential straights when the five new cards are dealt. It is easier to see the straight flushes, though. When you throw away the 8c and 4c, any club straight flush must be 9c, 10c, Jc, Qc, Kc. If, however, you throw away the 6c and 4c, the replacement straight flushes can have 7c, 8c, or 9c as the low card. This is why throwing away everything in this case pays slightly higher than throwing away everything in the other case. I know, clear as mud.

KH QH 6C 4C 3D	royal	4deuce	wldRyl	5OAK	str_fl	4OAK	fh	fl	str	3OAK	nada	Expected Pay
-- -- -- -- --	3	43	378	454	1641	21705	7602	9014	45072	223944	1224083	0.329528097271143
KH QH -- -- --	1	0	34	0	15	62	54	314	498	1435	13802	0.327844588344125

KH QH 8C 4D 3C	royal	4deuce	wldRyl	5OAK	str_fl	4OAK	fh	fl	str	3OAK	nada	Expected Pay
KH QH -- -- --	1	0	34	0	15	62	54	314	498	1435	13802	0.327844588344125
-- -- -- -- --	3	43	378	454	1556	21713	7602	9091	43675	224208	1225216	0.327506504495941

It's actually clear to me, thank you. I was thinking of getting a straight with the discards, instead of thinking what straights couldn't be gotten due to the discards being gone, with the SF being the main concern.