Quote:KSPI was at the Rio on Monday playing Double Double bonus on a super times pay machine and had a very strange session that led me to believe something was up with the machine. I was playing 6 quarters a line and three lines total for $4.50 a hand. I played for approximately 25 minutes and did not get a single super times pay multiplier. I did however get 4 aces twice, once with a duece for $500 and once without for $200. I had to leave for the airport or I would have kept playing, more than anything to see if I ever got a multiplier. I've played a fair amount of video poker and have never seen anything like this. The odds of not getting a multiplier after approximately 200 hands combined with getting 4 aces twice have got to be off the charts.

According to my page on Super Time Pay, the probability of getting a multiplier on any given hand is 1/15. So the probability of going 200 hands without a multiplier is (14/15)^200 = 1 in 983,206. The probability of getting four aces twice in 600 hands on the draw is 1 in 116, assuming optimal 9/6 DDB strategy.

However, this would make for terrible statistics if I were to conclude that the machine was cheating. The scientific method would be to formulate a hypothesis BEFORE you start playing, then gather evidence, and then see how well the evidence fits the hypothesis. It is easy to look back on a video poker sitting and find something unusual about it.

Just one more question: How would one go about trying to prove mathematically that the machine had the super time pay feature turned off or was set up to a frequency other than 1 in 15? I guess you could play a series of sessions of x hands per session, but how many of these would you need to run before you would feel comfortable drawing any conclusions.

Also, I calculated my odds of getting multipliers five hands in a row at 1 in 759,375, better than my odds of not getting any for 200 hands (1 in 983,206). That would have been more fun :)