Dueces Wild strategy question

Is it potentially sensible to play Deuces Wild with the following approach:

Tracking the appearance of deuces on a per-hand basis, and increasing one's bet after a period when no deuce has appeared. As in, if one assumes a duece appears roughly once in every two hands dealt out, then if, say, six hands appear consecutively without a deuce appearing - is it sensible to increase one's bet amount?

No, it is not sensible. Every hand dealt is from a fresh deck. Past cards dealt have no bearing on present or future hands.

You are effectively Martingaling a deuce and since your bet range is only 1 - 5 units, your strategy will likely have no effect as each deal is from a new deck and the odds of no deuce appearing is 65.88%. Over 6 hands, the odds of no deuce appearing is 8.18%, not that low of a probability to Martingale.

And a deuce doesn't guarantee a win. In fact, the biggest win is still the royal with no deuces.

If you are going to do an "increase the bet" strategy based on a streak of losses, don't use the occurrences of deuces as a marker. Use the non-winning hand as the marker. Mind you, you are as likely to hit the royal flush if you've lost 100 hands in a row as you are if you had hit it on the previous hand.

Past performances have nothing to do with future results (except in shoe-dealt games).

Thanks.

I hope to track my play more directly with these thoughts in mind in the future.

Anecdotally, I've found that increasing my bet amount after a period where the deuces have not appeared is a successful strategy - as opposed to simply employing VP/Dueces Basic Strategy without regard to bet amount whatsoever. Of course, the notion of treating losing hands as the 'marker' tracks pretty closely with the same approach. While you don't win every hand in which you are dealt a duece, safe to say your likelihood of a winnning hand is higher with a deuce present.

It's a fine strategy if it works for you and you have fun doing it. Just remember that it isn't -- and never will be -- the best strategy. That strategy would be computer-perfect play. What would happen if you get, say 17 hands without a Deuce (could certainly happen), and you have a huge bet out?

As long as you understand that, you should be fine. Don't do anything too risky.

How do you recognize a full pay deuces wild machine? I searched on wizardofodds but couldnt find it. Thanks for the help.

Go to this page on the Wizardofodds.com site, and toggle for any particular VP game you wish to analyze. Magnificent!

https://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/analyzer/

If you want to use Martingale on deuces wild to make you feel better, though not recommended, start on the first payscale for 5 hands. If one doesn't appear, move up to level 2 for 5 hands, then level 3 for 5 hands. If nothing gets paid, skip 4 and go straight to level 5 max bet for a few hands. If you hit you feel like a genius. If that doesn't hit, don't keep losing money - suck it up and start back at 1. Of course in reality, this doesn't change anything in the long run, except this lowers your payout if you actually hit a royal on a lower level.

I don't see why using the varied bet amount scales in VP is silly if one can 'afford it.' After all, most folks vary their bet amounts in Blackjack and similar games. The question is the trigger that should be used. Lately, I've drawn on the advice above of using a 'trigger' based upon a specific number of consecutive lost hands, say 4, to then trigger an increased bet at the next pay level. A win may trigger a return to the base level, unless the win is sufficient to take me above my overall starting balance.

Recently, when playing DDB VP, I hit a Quad from the lowest bet. I upped the bet amount and what do you know, hit another Quad about 5 plays later. Was glad I adjusted upward on the bet amount after the first win!