Does EV Matter?
It doesn't matter in the short run. But what is the long run except a bunch of short runs put together?
so i guess my next question would be is WHY DOES DW AND/OR DDB WITH FULL PAY HAVE EV OF OVER 100% and JACKS OR BETTER IS ONLY AT 99.5%?
The WoO keeps saying to avoid high HE, and doesnt seem to say as much about EV, a slightly different concept. I have pretty much taken to heart this concept of avoiding high HE as a guide. However, sometimes EV is good to look at, for example the stupidity of putting a minimum $5 bet on the "field" in craps, especially when paying 2:1 on 12, versus the lark of $1 on 8 the hard way, kind of stands out to me anyway, and EV tells the story better than HE at about 28 cents vs 9 cents cost. Gets worse on a $10 table, of course.
Also, when confused about the effect of lowering the HE by using free odds in craps, I just keep saying you can lower the HE but not the EV. If you don't understand that you start thinking dumb stuff pretty easily.
typo corrected
50 coins for a full house on DDB is offset by the fact it only pays 5 coins on a two pair and full houses are more rare that a two pair so id actually have to say your giving up money when compared to jacks or better because on average every 90 hands you get a full house and every 8 hands you get a two pair so your giving up money actually in the long run if you got by statistics which i do not.....i play basic statrety of course but EV to me i dont know..........Whats the big deal with EV when you ignore statistics and come back to reality where its possible to get 3 royal flushes in a row......what im getting at is DDB and DW only have payouts of 100% becuase of there high hand pays outs that are rare.......i think what offsets this 100% is the high variance these games carry so you need a big bankroll to offset this imbalance.....that is why i stick with jacks or better it has a low variance when compared to DDB or DW and a longer half life which means your bank roll should last longer ..................... i guess its all a matter of personal preference.....people play DDB in hopes of a quick 4 of a kind win and then people play jacks or better and steadily make there way up and hope to hit a royal
Quote: saginaw10that is why i stick with jacks or better it has a low variance when compared to DDB or DW and a longer half life which means your bank roll should last longer ..................... i guess its all a matter of personal preference.....people play DDB in hopes of a quick 4 of a kind win and then people play jacks or better and steadily make there way up and hope to hit a royal
variance and EV definitely do some sort of dance
Just a suggestion.
Quote: saginaw10so i guess my next question would be is WHY DOES DW AND/OR DDB WITH FULL PAY HAVE EV OF OVER 100% and JACKS OR BETTER IS ONLY AT 99.5%?
Because of the paytables.
If in Jacks or Better, the full house paid 10 instead of 9, that would add one bet won every 90 hands. That equates to a gain of 1.1%, and the game would now pay 100.64%. (There used to be such a game at the Stratosphere, also one that paid 7 instead of 6 for the flush, with almost the same effect on the player return.)
There is nothing INHERENT about any particular variety of video poker game that makes it +EV or -EV. You can make a positive game negative or a negative game positive simply by changing one or more aspects of the paytable.
Quote: saginaw10to make this as simple as possible does EV really matter i understand STATISTICALLY in the long run a game paying out over 100% will produce you a profit and a game paying out around 99% will produce a slight lose. But that is what should STATISTICALLY happen in the long run its not nessarilly true what will happen in short run because 99% of us arent going to even stick around long enough to have those statistics affect the outcome of the game....so when you take into accoutn ignoring statistics and o i can make an extra 2.50 profit statistically if i play a 100% game compared to a 99%...im being sarcastic of course....does EV really matter then or does it really come down to playing basic stategy and hoping luck is on your side?
EV matters because while, as you say, you could win or lose regardless of the EV, in the long run, your results will converge on that 100.7% or 99.5% or whatever. Think of EV as a place where the average of your results will lie. Would you rather your results averaged 100.5%, or 99.5%?
Quote: saginaw10Right now i play 9/6 jacks or better for multiple reasons one is because soaring eagle doesnt have full pay anyting else that i can see except for jack or better and secondly because it has the least variance of any video poker game except pick 'em poker and lastly its half life or simply put your chances of losing yoru entire bankroll within a short period of time aka the 3 or 4 hours your playing is less than the other video poker games probably due to the low variance but either way for a guy who brings in a small amount of cash just looking to have fun...right now i play jacks or better because within that game my money plays alittle longer than most video poker games.....if you disclude getting lucky right off the bat with a 4 A's w/2 kicker on ddb or 4 deuces on DW.....and just stick to the pay out table from jacks or better with your hand of jacks or better paying you back your bet compared to 3 of kind pays you back your bet for DW and two pair pays you back even money for DDB..........
so i guess my next question would be is WHY DOES DW AND/OR DDB WITH FULL PAY HAVE EV OF OVER 100% and JACKS OR BETTER IS ONLY AT 99.5%?
Quote: davidearlso i guess my next question would be is WHY DOES DW AND/OR DDB WITH FULL PAY HAVE EV OF OVER 100% and JACKS OR BETTER IS ONLY AT 99.5%?
I think the variance is less with J.o.B. so the trade off might be worth it to players who arent trying to be advantage players anyway
For instance, DDB is 10/6 instead of 10/7, for a 100.07% payout, the only one that pays over 100%. JOB is 9/6. BP is 35/8/5 for 99.66%. They pay 35 coins for a quad instead of 80/40/25. DB is 9/7/99.11%. DW is 25/15/99.96%. WHA is 9/5/99.24%.
Only one game had the Certified Hot sign, but I checked three machines and they all paid the same. People were on the other machines that I didn't check. These machines were .25/.50/1.00 .
I'm from Saginaw too.
Quote: saginaw10Right now i play 9/6 jacks or better for multiple reasons one is because soaring eagle doesnt have full pay anyting else that i can see except for jack or better and secondly because it has the least variance of any video poker game except pick 'em poker and lastly its half life or simply put your chances of losing yoru entire bankroll within a short period of time aka the 3 or 4 hours your playing is less than the other video poker games probably due to the low variance but either way for a guy who brings in a small amount of cash just looking to have fun...right now i play jacks or better because within that game my money plays alittle longer than most video poker games.....if you disclude getting lucky right off the bat with a 4 A's w/2 kicker on ddb or 4 deuces on DW.....and just stick to the pay out table from jacks or better with your hand of jacks or better paying you back your bet compared to 3 of kind pays you back your bet for DW and two pair pays you back even money for DDB..........
so i guess my next question would be is WHY DOES DW AND/OR DDB WITH FULL PAY HAVE EV OF OVER 100% and JACKS OR BETTER IS ONLY AT 99.5%?
I wonder the same thing and have no answer. Maybe they started with a pay table that they had not accurately computed to be beatable, and just kept it because not many played well enough to hurt them.
Quote: rdw4potusYes, it matters. And those statistics come into play way more than you'd think. Say you're playing $1 double bonus VP ($5/hand). The only difference between the version with the 100.175% return and the game with the 99.1% is that full houses pay 10 in one game and 9 in the other. The rest of the paytable is identical. You'll get a full house about once in every 90 hands, which is hardly a long-term period in video poker. And for every full house that you hit, you get $5 more for playing the game with the higher EV.
That is actually a great and yet simple answer that those guys will still not agree with.
100.5%, but this figure is the "average of your results" and if the first few sessions are high enough, I'll walk away a winner and not weight for succeeding sessions to exert their deadly influence.Quote: mkl654321Think of EV as a place where the average of your results will lie. Would you rather your results averaged 100.5%, or 99.5%?
Quote: FleaStiff100.5%, but this figure is the "average of your results" and if the first few sessions are high enough, I'll walk away a winner and not weight for succeeding sessions to exert their deadly influence.
That kind of thinking is only valid if you will never gamble again in your life.
Quote: mkl654321That kind of thinking is only valid if you will never gamble again in your life.
You can always drink triple after a big losing session. With luck, you'll forget it ever happened.
Alternately, if you believe in reincarnation, go deep in debt, and should that fail, take another shot.
I would like to understand the trick with 134459 starting hands on this page:
I wonder if it is important to generate starting hands in the same order as Wizard, for example he generates
Five Unique Ranks
2 1 1 1 1 4
and I :
Five Unique Ranks
1 1 1 1 2 4
they are same hands acording to poker value but,can it cause problems by indexing cards? for example here
int HandIndex3(int c1, int c2, int c3)
{
int r;
r=combin_array[52][3]-combin_array[52-c1][3];
r+=combin_array[51-c1][2]-combin_array[52-c2][2];
r+=combin_array[51-c2][1]-combin_array[52-c3][1];
return r;
}
And second question:
I am not sure if I understand this sentence: "Put the score in array0. Put the first hand in element 0 of the array, and increment by 1 for each hand."
I understand it as follows: for first hand I do
array0[0][0]++;
array0[0][1]++;
...
array0[0][16]++;
for second hand I do
array0[1][0]++;
array0[1][1]++;
...
array0[1][16]++;
and so on...
Is this right??
