Is this progressive royal amount a 0.04% occurance and possibly a bug at Palace Station

I played a 25 cent game with a royal which had grew to over $4,200 before I left. Meter rise was around 1 penny per $1.25 bet. Chat gpt claims the game went over 316,000 spins without a royal or 7.9 cycles. This is Triple Bonus Poker, a bank of five machines across from cashier. Either I am spilling the beans on an ultra rare 25 cent progressive, or I am finding a bugged game. Chat gpt says this is a 0.04% occurance or 1 in 1,200 chance. I recently read the thread on here about the Green Valley Ranch game which had a bug. This game today didnt show me anything visible other than up to five players pounding away for 12 hours and missing every last four card royal. I called the gaming commision and they said they will check the RTP, etc of the games. I honestly hope I wake up to discover someone finally hit it but I'm naturally fearful because of what happened at Green Valley last year that these five machines could be robbing players including myself. What is the opinion of those here who know more about video poker and variance and probabilties more than I do?

I'm getting better numbers.

Played using WOO strategy for Triple Bonus, but without any changes for a higher royal flush, the probability of a royal flush is 1 in 50,000. This would imply 6.4 cycles.

The probability of not getting a royal flush in 320,000 hands is 1 in 600. While that's unusual, it's not proof of a rigged game. If you visit 600 different banks of progressive machines, you'll find an average of one of them in this state, just due to random chance.

While the players are probably choosing royal flush eligible cards now, and have for some time, it's also possible that much of the initial progressive increase was caused by ploppies who play badly, such as choosing a pair of numbers over 3 to a RF.

Quote: brocktherock68

I played a 25 cent game with a royal which had grew to over $4,200 before I left. Meter rise was around 1 penny per $1.25 bet. Chat gpt claims the game went over 316,000 spins without a royal or 7.9 cycles. This is Triple Bonus Poker, a bank of five machines across from cashier. Either I am spilling the beans on an ultra rare 25 cent progressive, or I am finding a bugged game. Chat gpt says this is a 0.04% occurance or 1 in 1,200 chance. I recently read the thread on here about the Green Valley Ranch game which had a bug. This game today didnt show me anything visible other than up to five players pounding away for 12 hours and missing every last four card royal. I called the gaming commision and they said they will check the RTP, etc of the games. I honestly hope I wake up to discover someone finally hit it but I'm naturally fearful because of what happened at Green Valley last year that these five machines could be robbing players including myself. What is the opinion of those here who know more about video poker and variance and probabilties more than I do?
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1 in 1200 is rare, but not ridiculously so. Since you will never take notice of the other 1199 times someone does hit a Royal in those 316,000 spins, I don’t think you can make any conclusion. Good find and analysis. If you are going back tomorrow give us an update.
And welcome to the forum.

Someone who grinded the game with very incorrect play for four days and lost $6,000 chasing it, text me and said someone finally hit it at around $4,900 (I assume because when I left three hours earlier it was close to $4,700). An old man who hadn't been grinding it and recently sat down was the lucky one. 7.8 missed royal cycles maybe? 1 in 2,400 event? I personally lost $550 after two days and had a chance to walk a $475 winner early on day 2 after a nice string of higher paying quads. This is before getting $300 in 10x multiplier freeplay back and $40 food and future mailer fp. So just a small loss. I went on a 1k downswing at one point and asked for more food $ and Palace Station is so tight they wouldnt give me any more bc they gave me $40 before the downswing lol. But theyre wise to see how much multiplier day money I got.