Wondering how to calculate ev for triple play progressive

Hey all, first post on the forum. Can't find any details on this online (everything i find is about single hand progressives).

I have a linked bank of progressive triple play machines at one of my local casinos. DDB 8/5, 25 cent denom, $3.75 per spin at max bet, and the progressives were at the following values:

All 3 royals $23,106.86
Royal flush hand 1: $2,329.02
Royal flush hand 2: $1,917.42
Royal flush hand 3: $1,352.35

Is the correct way to calculate the ev for the bottom progressives to average the 3 royal flush payouts, and add that value instead of 4000 credits on the wizards ev calculator? How would you go about calculating the ev of the top progressive?

Thank you all for your insight.

Quote: Travis11997

Hey all, first post on the forum. Can't find any details on this online (everything i find is about single hand progressives).

I have a linked bank of progressive triple play machines at one of my local casinos. DDB 8/5, 25 cent denom, $3.75 per spin at max bet, and the progressives were at the following values:

All 3 royals $23,106.86
Royal flush hand 1: $2,329.02
Royal flush hand 2: $1,917.42
Royal flush hand 3: $1,352.35

Is the correct way to calculate the ev for the bottom progressives to average the 3 royal flush payouts, and add that value instead of 4000 credits on the wizards ev calculator? How would you go about calculating the ev of the top progressive?

Thank you all for your insight.
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(2329+1917+1352)/3=$1866 for the average of the royal. Convert to credits $1866*4=7464

Use 7464 credits for the Royal instead of 4000 since the average royal will pay 7464 credits

Quote: DRich

Quote: Travis11997

Hey all, first post on the forum. Can't find any details on this online (everything i find is about single hand progressives).

I have a linked bank of progressive triple play machines at one of my local casinos. DDB 8/5, 25 cent denom, $3.75 per spin at max bet, and the progressives were at the following values:

All 3 royals $23,106.86
Royal flush hand 1: $2,329.02
Royal flush hand 2: $1,917.42
Royal flush hand 3: $1,352.35

Is the correct way to calculate the ev for the bottom progressives to average the 3 royal flush payouts, and add that value instead of 4000 credits on the wizards ev calculator? How would you go about calculating the ev of the top progressive?

Thank you all for your insight.
link to original post

(2329+1917+1352)/3=$1866 for the average of the royal. Convert to credits $1866*4=7464

Use 7464 credits for the Royal instead of 4000 since the average royal will pay 7464 credits
link to original post

Thank you, that is how I thought it would be, but I wasn't sure.

For the top progressive, the odds of a dealt royal is 1:649,740. Does that make the ev ($23106/649740) = en divide by the bet size 3.75 = 0.0087, or an additional 0.87% ev?

The ev calculator from wizardofodds gives 98.73% when using 7464 credits for the royal, so is the total 99.5%?

Am I doing the math right or am I missing something?

Even if you calculate the strategy for all three hands separately, the probability of getting royals on all three is something like 1 in 37,327,718,500,000, so, since you are playing 3.75 per play, that adds only 23,100 / (3.75 x 37,327,718,500,000), or about 1 / 6,000,000,000, to the return.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Even if you calculate the strategy for all three hands separately, the probability of getting royals on all three is something like 1 in 37,327,718,500,000, so, since you are playing 3.75 per play, that adds only 23,100 / (3.75 x 37,327,718,500,000), or about 1 / 6,000,000,000, to the return.
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ThatDonGuy,

Did you overlook the probability of a dealt royal?

Dog Hand

Quote: DogHand

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Even if you calculate the strategy for all three hands separately, the probability of getting royals on all three is something like 1 in 37,327,718,500,000, so, since you are playing 3.75 per play, that adds only 23,100 / (3.75 x 37,327,718,500,000), or about 1 / 6,000,000,000, to the return.
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ThatDonGuy,

Did you overlook the probability of a dealt royal?

Dog Hand
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I see your point - yes, I did. I also didn't take into account the probability of, say, being dealt 4 to a royal, which is much more likely than being dealt 4 to a royal three separate times.

Now there's a problem - for each of the 134,459 of what I call "unique" hands, what is the probability of getting a royal? That's pretty much what you would have to calculate, then cube each probability, multiply each one by the probability of being dealt that hand (either 4, 12, or 24 out of 2,598,960), and add those up.

Quote: DogHand

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Even if you calculate the strategy for all three hands separately, the probability of getting royals on all three is something like 1 in 37,327,718,500,000, so, since you are playing 3.75 per play, that adds only 23,100 / (3.75 x 37,327,718,500,000), or about 1 / 6,000,000,000, to the return.
link to original post

ThatDonGuy,

Did you overlook the probability of a dealt royal?

Dog Hand
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but the strategy for being dealt 5 to a Royal shouldn't change with the value of a Royal.

ThatDonGuy,

Well, the odds of being dealt 4 to a RF are (649,740 to 1)/48 = 13,536.25 to 1. Then, to get four RF's, multiply 13,536.25 by 47^3 to get about 1.4 billion to 1. Thus, I think a good approximation to getting the three simultaneous RF's is 649,440 to 1, and we can neglect all the other possibilities.

Dog Hand