100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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May 12th, 2022 at 7:33:27 AM permalink


Kings or better (103.3%), $2 denom, 10coin max bet ($20/spin) for Progressive ($37.3k).

The base game is 95.5%.
The Royal (no Joker) has variance of 391.

How much should I bring?
And how long will it take, on avg?
Last edited by: 100xOdds on May 12, 2022
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Dieter
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Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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May 12th, 2022 at 7:36:31 AM permalink
I politely suggest that the game may not be video poker.

edit: Cranial flatulence. Didn't see the progressive vs base properly.
May the cards fall in your favor.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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June 6th, 2022 at 4:44:52 AM permalink
Wiz's RoR calculator:
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/calculator/risk-of-ruin/

Royal is $37.3k @ $20/spin.
If i just brought $37.3k, RoR = 74% :(

If i bought 3x the Royal ($112k) to play, RoR is still high at 40%.

What's a comfortable RoR to play with?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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June 6th, 2022 at 5:06:18 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds



Kings or better (103.3%), $2 denom, 10coin max bet ($20/spin) for Progressive ($37.3k).

The base game is 95.5%.
The Royal (no Joker) has variance of 391.

How much should I bring?
And how long will it take, on avg?
link to original post

How fast can you play?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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June 6th, 2022 at 4:13:42 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

(snip)
Kings or better (103.3%), $2 denom, 10coin max bet ($20/spin) for Progressive ($37.3k).
(snip)
link to original post


I am not confident at working these out, but are you sure the return^^^ is about 103.3%, I get closer to ~98% ($2 denom?).
^^^: I would wait and see until a VP/Math expert confirms the return you got is correct.

Lastly, before I looked at it more carefully. I already started on a couple of simulations using ~103.3% as the return, so if you are correct then read further / see the results I got below.

Quote: 100xOdds

Wiz's RoR calculator:
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/calculator/risk-of-ruin/

Royal is $37.3k @ $20/spin.
If i just brought $37.3k, RoR = 74% :(

If i bought 3x the Royal ($112k) to play, RoR is still high at 40%.

What's a comfortable RoR to play with?
link to original post


I don't know what the consensus is, but I would play with at least $160,000 (very roughly 1/30 chance of busting).

Note 1: Since I am using a free version of a simulator, I could only go up to the equivalent of $200,000 bankroll (... roughly 1/75 chance of busting).

Note 2: Because it would have taken too long, I capped the turnover/wagering per session to "100 x the bankroll", for example "the equivalent of a $200,000 bankroll, I capped the wagering to $20 million.

Note 3 / Very Important: I only got to 10,000 sessions for each simulation, so that is why the estimates for busting are "very rough" (if I had the time and a powerful enough pc, then I would want at least a 1 million sessions (preferably 100 million sessions).

---
Lastly, when using the "Wiz's RoR calculator", the disclaimer says "... In games like video poker, video keno, and slots, where the worst case scenario is losing one unit, I believe this calculator to overstate the chance of ruin." (so the estimated RoR that I got from "limited simulation", may be closer to the "true figure", when compared to that one?)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 6, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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June 6th, 2022 at 6:17:25 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds



Kings or better (103.3%), $2 denom, 10coin max bet ($20/spin) for Progressive ($37.3k).

The base game is 95.5%.
The Royal (no Joker) has variance of 391.
(snip)
link to original post


Update: From the screenshot you posted, I get 92.824% (or 7.1757% "expected drop^^^ " when no Royal has been hit) as the return for the base game (base game = return for everything except the "Royal (no Joker)"?).

^^^: Assuming my "expected drop" figure is close to correct, you would want to have hit the Royal within ~25,990 rounds or earlier (~48% chance of NOT hitting the Jackpot, by then ).

Also, unless you can "continue to find machines, with a 100%+ RTP", you should probably set "stopping points" even if you have enough bank to "keep going/playing"( I know this is the "wrong thing to do long-term", but it may be the "safer option" from a RoR pov , especially if you think it will be unlikely that you will ever find a machine again with a similar denom and EV).

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