Vegasrider
Vegasrider
Joined: Dec 23, 2017
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October 15th, 2020 at 7:31:27 PM permalink
Assuming the SQRF resets at $12,500. And max bet is 1.25, when or what jackpot dollar amount does the game become playable? According to Bob Dancer, no amount.
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
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October 15th, 2020 at 8:13:02 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

Assuming the SQRF resets at $12,500. And max bet is 1.25, when or what jackpot dollar amount does the game become playable? According to Bob Dancer, no amount.



The quarter game has roughly the same variance as FPDW at $25 per hand. Imagine that I could play quarter FPDW and earned less than a penny a hand, but somehow, the variance was the same as playing $25 per hand. I would not touch that FPDW game with a ten foot pole. I don't really enjoy playing VP. Unless the hourly rate is really good, I would not have any interest in that imaginary game. The reward has to match the risk.

I usually play around 1200 hands per hour, but checking for any SRF draws both ways would slow this down. The progressive at $150K level is worth less than $50 per hour. When I have played games with a similar amount of variance per hour, I have usually had an earn rate of $75 per hour or higher. These sort of opportunities were getting scarce, so more of my play lately has been non-VP opportunities. If I needed to earn money and the Red Rock progressive was the only game in town, I think I would play it above $125K, but I have a rather large bankroll and there is no way this game would harm it much.

I did hear the GWAE podcast. IIRC, Dancer answered the question without mentioning the meter rate. For some progressives, this can be 2%. Variance is variance whether you can lock up the progressive with a team or not. However, in order to capture meter movement in your own EV, you need to lock up the progressive -- possibly, for a very long time. There are a lot of factors, but I think this game had to be getting close to the tipping point for some Vegas team. There is a significant chance that a team could lose $100K taking down the progressive starting at $150K. This isn't really that bad. It is not easy to make any decent money gambling without risking a 100K loss.
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
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October 16th, 2020 at 1:01:18 PM permalink
I was curious to see if an increase in the sequential royal progressive added more value to some low variance games versus higher variance games. There turns out to be a small affect. In these tables, I calculated the EV for 11 payoffs for the two-way SRF from zero to 100,000 bets. I then subtracted the EV of the zero SRF game and presented the resulting difference as a percentage. JOB gains the least, 5.79% and TDB gains the most, 5.85%.

I was thinking that on a progressive machine with multiple game choices, the best game at a lower SRF payoff might be different than the best game choice at higher levels. I don't think that will ever be the case. The strategy changes cost you a bit less on high variance games because throwing away two-pair on DDB or trips on TDB to go for the SRF is not as costly as it is on a JOB game. This difference in costs amounts to only 0.06%.

A 10,000 bet increase in the SRF payout adds around 0.5% to the EV at lower levels and adds more than 0.6% to the EV once the SRF payoff is high enough.

1 2 3 4 5 8 25 50 800 : Jacks or Better
0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000100000
0.000.501.041.592.162.753.353.964.575.185.79

1 2 3 4 5 6 40 80 25 50 800 : Bonus Poker
0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000100000
0.000.501.041.592.172.763.363.974.585.195.81

1 1 3 4 5 8 50 80 160 160 400 50 800 : Double Double Bonus
0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000100000
0.000.501.051.602.192.783.373.984.595.205.84

1 1 2 4 6 8 80 400 160 800 50 50 800 : Triple Double Bonus
0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000100000
0.000.491.051.622.202.793.383.974.575.205.85
Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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October 17th, 2020 at 5:34:08 PM permalink


I paid a visit to the Red Rock to confirm this game. The screen above shows the jackpot as of about 1PM on Oct 17.

The same jackpot is available on six different base games. The following table shows those games with the return for all royals paying 800x the bet amount.

Base game Pay table Return
Bonus Poker Deluxe 6-5 0.953611
Jacks or Better 6-5 0.949961
Triple Double Bonus 7-5 0.949178
Double Double Bonus 6-5 0.946569
Double Bonus 8-5 0.941897
Bonus Poker 10-8-5-3-1 0.941829


As you can see, Bonus Poker Deluxe offers the best value.

The next table shows the return with optimal strategy, including card position for 8-6 Bonus Poker Deluxe. The lower right cell shows a return of 105.22%!

This has an expected profit of 1.3 cents per hand. Assuming a playing speed of 1000 hands per hour, the expected win per hour is $13.05, not including the value of points earned.

Outcome Win Combinations Probability Return
Reversible Royal Flush 807,782 67,567,248 0.000001 0.109525
Royal Flush 4,000 2,531,111,347 0.000025 0.020317
Straight Flush 250 10,545,248,235 0.000106 0.005290
Four of a Kind 400 246,151,065,684 0.002470 0.197580
Full House 30 811,309,337,868 0.008140 0.048842
Flush 25 1,067,259,148,415 0.010708 0.053542
Straight 20 1,275,953,861,466 0.012802 0.051209
Three of a Kind 15 7,722,917,814,918 0.077488 0.232464
Two Pair 5 10,770,132,885,066 0.108062 0.108062
Jacks or Better 5 22,463,692,195,905 0.225389 0.225389
All Other 0 55,295,592,349,848 0.554808 0.000000
Totals 99,666,152,586,000 1.000000 1.052220



The next table shows the return with optimal strategy, NOT including strategy changes for card position. It is based on an average royal of 17,396 coins, which is a weighted average between 1/60 the jackpot and 59/60 a win of 4000 coins. The lower right cell shows a return of 103.56%.

Outcome Prize Combinations Probability Return
Royal Flush 17,396 52,825,312 0.000032 0.110643
Straight Flush 250 160,811,571 0.000097 0.004841
Four of a Kind 400 4,128,394,310 0.002485 0.198827
Full House 30 13,632,719,598 0.008207 0.049242
Flush 25 18,607,023,152 0.011202 0.056008
Straight 20 20,468,179,301 0.012322 0.049288
Three of a Kind 15 129,801,408,860 0.078142 0.234425
Two Pair 5 181,189,140,336 0.109078 0.109078
Jacks or Better 5 370,795,511,313 0.223223 0.223223
All Other 0 922,266,529,347 0.555213 0.000000
Totals 1,661,102,543,100 1.000000 1.035574




The next table shows the return with optimal strategy for non-progressive 8/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe. The lower right cell shows a return of 101.97%.

Outcome Prize Combinations Probability Return
Royal Flush 17,396 40,987,885 0.000025 0.085850
Straight Flush 250 179,539,017 0.000108 0.005404
Four of a Kind 400 4,136,976,035 0.002491 0.199240
Full House 30 13,653,938,163 0.008220 0.049319
Flush 25 18,041,709,548 0.010861 0.054306
Straight 20 21,688,438,418 0.013057 0.052227
Three of a Kind 15 129,936,095,954 0.078223 0.234668
Two Pair 5 181,027,999,728 0.108981 0.108981
Jacks or Better 5 381,597,343,986 0.229725 0.229725
All Other 0 910,799,514,366 0.548310 0.000000
Total 1,661,102,543,100 1.000000 1.019720
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
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October 17th, 2020 at 9:45:44 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I paid a visit to the Red Rock to confirm this game. The screen above shows the jackpot as of about 1PM on Oct 17.


The meter must be fast to get this SRF payoff up to 161K bets or maybe the reset is very high. With these crappy pay tables, Red Rock could afford to reset it higher. My original post was in regard to a quarter machine with two-way SRF at Red Rock.

For this nickel game, I get Variance = 18177.5802 and EV = 105.33775096%
HandNamePayoutProbabilityCycleROI %
SeqRF1615560.000000695141438564.3211.230363%
Royal8000.0000255663239113.95192.045306%
Str_Flush500.000105836509448.535910.529183%
Quads800.00247378310404.23915919.790265%
Full_House60.00815154215122.6761734.890925%
Flush50.0107831175492.73755905.391559%
Straight40.0126540277279.02622175.061611%
Trips30.0776203183712.883224623.286096%
Two_Pair10.108193612179.2426898410.819361%
JOB10.222930825074.4856964022.293083%
Nada00.557060675911.795136590.000000%
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 19th, 2020 at 10:38:40 AM permalink
I am sorry for hijacking the thread with the reversible royal game. I think I'll make a separate thread for that.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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October 19th, 2020 at 6:30:19 PM permalink
Player Hits Rare Sequential Royal Flush for $217,000 Jackpot (on a $1 machine)
https://vitalvegas.com/player-hits-rare-sequential-royal-flush-for-217000-jackpot/

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