sabre
sabre
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
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WTflush
June 1st, 2020 at 8:54:54 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Gosh that's a really good observation and answer if that were the question.



Ask an obscure and confusing question .... check
Mock people who ask for clarification .... check
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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WTflush
June 1st, 2020 at 9:12:05 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Maybe it would help if you gave more detail? Like, why $400k. If 3333A gives $200k, we'd all take the $200k. So it's hard to understand why you would throw away that money and chase an incredible long-shot 4 card draw to try to get $400k. BY FAR the best way to turn $500 in free play into $400k, given that you've already received a $200k hand, is to take that money and keep playing...



Rob Singer has an excellent used RV for sale at $399K. I'm sure it's a coincidence.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
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June 1st, 2020 at 9:19:30 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Rob Singer has an excellent used RV for sale at $399K. I'm sure it's a coincidence.



LOL. But that'd call for a random walk for sure. None of this one-shot nonsense:-)
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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June 1st, 2020 at 10:01:49 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Rob Singer has an excellent used RV for sale at $399K. I'm sure it's a coincidence.



Well that is a coincidence.

What we were discussing was hitting a $400,000 royal with $500 on a single line machine

We knew the chance was about 1/42000 overall and the chance of being dealt was 1/629,740.

Then we talked about playing a 100 line machine and of course the chance is the same as a dealt royal on most VP games such as Jacks or Bonus... but there are more chances with TDB because of AAAAK.

And then our conversation was about are your chances greater with what variety or format to hit that $400k payoff on a single play.

Now... if that helps you...

In TDB there are 2,598,960 different five card combinations that could be dealt. Four of those dealt combinations are royals, 12 dealt combinations are AAAAK. So on a 100 line game you have 16 out of 2,598,960 chances to get $400,000 on a single $500 play.

How many chances do you get with a single line $100 per coin game because you can draw? Is it the same 16 out of 2,598,960?

Now... with the single line game there are also four dealt royals plus the dealt AAAAK hands and then there are also one card, two card, three card, four card and even five card draws.

On a 100 line game there are no draws that will give you the $400k win unless it's a five card draw that gives you a drawn royal on all 100 lines or any other draw that delivers the same cards on each and every line.

And so the question. How many chances on each type of game to hit a $400,000 pay on a single $500 bet?
Last edited by: AlanMendelson on Jun 1, 2020
ChesterDog
ChesterDog
Joined: Jul 26, 2010
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WTflush
June 1st, 2020 at 10:51:34 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

...And so the question. How many chances on each type of game to hit a $400,000 pay on a single $500 bet?



The Wizard's Video Poker Analyzer provides the answers.

For Jacks or Better, it's about one in 23,081. And for Triple Double Bonus, it's about one in 8,076.

To use the analyzer to answer your question, just make all pays that are not 800 for 1 zero.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 2nd, 2020 at 12:16:29 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I saw the the thread about maximizing royals. My question is substantially different.

The question that I'm asking came up in a discussion about how to play $500 of free play. One comment led to another and then this question.

Yes, as I posted, secondary returns are not an issue.


The game you mentioned in the OP is probably the best one for your goal.
Also, if it is as you say, that secondary returns are not an issue, then I would play like this:

. Play "one-line" at the value of the free-play ($100 x 5 coins...).
. then follow this strategy,see link here >>> link

Note: The EV of this strategy is about $49.50

Note 2: This post was basically what Chesterdog said to do (see post above). But I was also trying to answer your question about "what format would I play? " (to maximize the chance of hitting the $400k after one play).

FYI (to anyone else interested): I think if played properly, then the true value of this "free-play" could be $280 or more (depending on the rules of the free-play).

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