RoyallyYours
RoyallyYours
Joined: Jan 26, 2020
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 8
February 19th, 2020 at 3:10:04 PM permalink
I thought I found the holy grail of video poker: a 105+% return paytable that I could bet $8.25/hand for $500/hour. I would include pics but I don't know how to attach them here.

Specs:
IGT class 3
Ultimate x wheel
3 handed $.25 denom (35 credits per deal)
Base paytable is 105%
Deuces Wild
4000
1000
125
75
50
25
20
15
10
5

I asked Richard Munchkin to help analyze and create a strategy for the game. He referred me his friend who only identified himself as Big Red. I am quoting his conclusion at the end of this post. He is completely right about other games on the console having deceptive paytables as well.

Looking back there were several red flags.
- Betting 4 credits or less had a completely different paytable with 97% return. Why would the game force you to play with the wheel to get the paytable?
6 of the 8 games had 100+% paytables. How likely is it a paytable mistake was made 6 times?
I simply could not win over any length of play over an hour. Is it within expectation to play 30,000 hands and lose $12,000?

Big Red:

With the full picture of the pay table I'm almost certain that this is the DW game listed on the UX Wheel Poker page: Deuces Wild 25-16-13-4-3-2 97.637%, it's just listed by the single-credit payouts instead of showing the "better" payouts you get by playing max & enabling the feature. The feature is not guaranteed to increase the return. A recent example of this is *newer* Dream Card games. Original Dream Card had uniform pay tables and (for JoB/DW) the feature was triggered around 50% of the time. Now the new Dream Card has a very attractive pay table on max bet (which would be over 100% if a regular single line game) but the feature is triggered under 20% of the time, making the overall return below 100% and, in most cases, worse than most original Dream Card variants. You can't play short-coin and get the "good" pay table, which also is likely the case here.

Most machines usually have games set to relatively similar returns, so I would guess that most games, including the other DW Bonus game all return under 98%. Look at the single-credit payouts for that and compare it to what's listed on WoO. Sometimes a machine has an abnormally high returning game, but my prediction is that the DW Bonus game you have found will pay 12-4-3-2 for single-credit, and I would be very shocked if it wasn't one of the three pay tables listed on WoO.
sabre
sabre 
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 766
Thanks for this post from:
Forager
February 19th, 2020 at 3:49:38 PM permalink
I'm confused as to why you thought this was +ev. You were paying 7 coins to get a 5 coin paytable plus occasional wheel spins.
RoyallyYours
RoyallyYours
Joined: Jan 26, 2020
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 8
February 19th, 2020 at 4:22:46 PM permalink
I was paying 35 coins for 3 hands.
5 per hand for the base paytable
5 per hand for the multipliers
5 per game for the wheel

I thought it was +ev because the base paytable is very +ev and in every example on the WoO analysis page shows the multiplier and wheel bet have a very small (and usually positive) influence on the ev. /games/video-poker/tables/ultimate-x-wheel-poker/
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard 
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1298
  • Posts: 21233
February 19th, 2020 at 4:30:45 PM permalink
How do you know the value of the wheel feature?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
RoyallyYours
RoyallyYours
Joined: Jan 26, 2020
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 8
Thanks for this post from:
beachbumbabs
February 19th, 2020 at 4:44:20 PM permalink
I greatly admire the work you have done for the gambling community and myself personally over the years.

I used your 40x estimation as well as the formula to create a paytable I could put in the strategy maker.

Here are my wheel spin results:

14x 54 times
15x 29 times
16x 11 times
17x no times
18x 3 times
19x 1 time
20x 83 times
250 credits 1 time
500 credits 4 times
1000 credits 2 time
2000 credits 4 times
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 99
  • Posts: 14160
February 19th, 2020 at 5:02:14 PM permalink
Quote: RoyallyYours

I greatly admire the work you have done for the gambling community and myself personally over the years.

I used your 40x estimation as well as the formula to create a paytable I could put in the strategy maker. https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/ultimate-x-wheel-poker/

Here are my wheel spin results:

14x 54 times
15x 29 times
16x 11 times
17x no times
18x 3 times
19x 1 time
20x 83 times
250 credits 1 time
500 credits 4 times
1000 credits 2 time
2000 credits 4 times



Welcome to the forum, Royally yours. Big kudos to you for coming in here with numbers on all of this!

When you say 30000 hands, do you mean 10000 spins 3-play, or 30000 spins 3-play for 90000 hands? I'm guessing the former, but please clarify.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
RoyallyYours
RoyallyYours
Joined: Jan 26, 2020
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 8
February 19th, 2020 at 5:56:04 PM permalink
It was a little over 30,000 hands overall. No royals unfortunately so I did even worse than 97% return.
sabre
sabre 
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 766
February 19th, 2020 at 6:52:03 PM permalink
The extra bets have a small positive influence over the 5 coin ev. The five coin ev was sub 98%. I have no idea why you feel this game was remotely deceptive.
RoyallyYours
RoyallyYours
Joined: Jan 26, 2020
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 8
February 19th, 2020 at 7:20:19 PM permalink
Put the base paytable into a paytable analyzer/calculator. It will show a return of over 105%. Now you tell me why you think the base paytable is less than 100%.
rsactuary
rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 1524
February 19th, 2020 at 7:39:50 PM permalink
Quote: RoyallyYours

Put the base paytable into a paytable analyzer/calculator. It will show a return of over 105%. Now you tell me why you think the base paytable is less than 100%.



You can't take that on its own without considering the impact of the wheel

  • Jump to: