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SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
Joined: Aug 31, 2019
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January 15th, 2020 at 9:59:35 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Let's say you need $30k coin in to make it to the next tier level and have these 97% payables as your best options:

1) .25 6/5 bp (96.9%) triple play, var is 20
2) $1 single line 9/12 dw (97.1%), var is 25

I would sacrifice the .2% HE and go for the triple play to lessen the variance.
Bp by it's nature is lower var than dw to begin with.
Adding triple play *and* betting less per spin lowers the var even more compared to $1 dw

Why don't you play 60 hands at $500 a hand? I'm sure the odds and the comps are better. I also suspect the drink girls are a lot friendlier. (joke)

Before I invest $30K in the next tier level, I want to know if it's worth the cost. If the only factor affecting your decision is profit, you would never play a 97% game. If you are going to sit through $30K playing a losing game, don't you want to at least enjoy the process? Triple play or Single play, it's all the same game. If the game is negative, there is going to be a cost.

We play video poker because it's the least expensive way to enjoy the casino experience. Disney World is about an hour's drive from our home. Millions of people look forward to visiting there each year. Right now a single park ticket costs a minimum of $109 a day each. A night at a Disney Park Hotel starts at $300 a night, most rooms are much more. Food and transportation is expensive. A husband and wife can easily spend $1,000 a day. For what? For the experience. We get the experience we desire just for playing a game we enjoy. What's better than that?
Joeman
Joeman
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January 15th, 2020 at 10:25:35 AM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

I am taking my wife to Biloxi for Valentine's day. The Beau Rivage is comping our flight and our rooms. All the games are 97%. An expert would stay home. We take advantage of their hospitality while playing the games that have a house edge. While we are enjoying one of the most beautiful and luxurious hotels on the Gulf Coast, the expert would be home watching his grass grow. Who is the better player?

Last time I was in Biloxi, there were 98% and even 99% games available, even at the 25c level. VPFree2 says they are still there.

Also, do you fly Allegiant out of SFB? Their fares are often quite low, and I have contemplated taking that flight, but Sanford is a bit of a trek for me from Jax. They don't have the best schedule, and Allegiant isn't for everyone, but that's the closest direct flight to GPT for me.

Hope you and the Mrs. enjoy your trip!
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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January 15th, 2020 at 10:47:31 AM permalink
Quote: EVBandit

Let’s not play games. Here is your entire 1st paragraph:

“Variance: Playing triple-play would have less variance than playing single-handed at $3.75/hand. The same number of deals would have more variance than playing single-handed at $1.25/hand.”

I stand by what I wrote earlier. And no, I did not take things out of context.



You misread what he wrote, imo. I understood exactly what he meant there the first time he wrote it.

Variance in DOLLARS is as follows:

Single Line at $3.75 total wager per round > Triple play at $3.75 total wager per round > Single line at $1.25 total wager per round.

Generally speaking for variance in terms of money:

When you are betting the same amount per LINE, then more lines equals more variance. (e.g. dollar 100-play has more variance than dollar single line in terms of money.)

When you are betting the same total bet per ROUND of play, then more lines equal less variance. (e.g. dollar single line has more variance than penny 100-play in terms of money.)
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
Joined: Aug 31, 2019
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January 15th, 2020 at 10:53:20 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman

Last time I was in Biloxi, there were 98% and even 99% games available, even at the 25c level. VPFree2 says they are still there.

Also, do you fly Allegiant out of SFB? Their fares are often quite low, and I have contemplated taking that flight, but Sanford is a bit of a trek for me from Jax. They don't have the best schedule, and Allegiant isn't for everyone, but that's the closest direct flight to GPT for me.

Hope you and the Mrs. enjoy your trip!

We have been playing video poker in Biloxi for nearly 20 years. There was a time when 9/6 Jacks or Better was common in Biloxi. Today, 97% are the default quarter games. The Gulf View casino in Gulfport used to have 99.5% games at the bar in the back. They have been downgraded. The IP has a few 98.9% quarter deuces wild machines. If you wish to move up to dollar games, the odds get better. Keep in mind that Mississippi has a 3% State gambling tax with no loss offset. I wouldn't get too excited about VPfree2.com. We have found their information shaky at best.

The Beau Rivage is different. All the games are 97%, even in the high limit room. We feel like the round trip airfare, three nights lodging and points are worth around $1,000. The trick with them is to play enough so they invite you back but not so much you overpay. We play 2-3 hours each morning and 2-3 hours each night at the Beau. We play single line quarter Deuces Wild with 5 coins at a time. The rest of the time, we casino hop around town. We also rent a car and drive down to the Silver Slipper in Bay St. Louis. If we grow tired of VP, we drive to New Orleans.

The great thing about MLife is they are the only casino group that lets us both play on the same card. This makes us look like a bigger player than playing alone. One of us normally hits a royal in Biloxi. My wife is on a roll right now. She hit two $1,000 royals on the same machine in Tampa a few days ago.

The Beau charters Sun Country Airlines out of St. Pete. The Sanford trip was sold out.
Last edited by: SingleCoinVP on Jan 15, 2020
EVBandit
EVBandit
Joined: Nov 8, 2019
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January 15th, 2020 at 11:40:45 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

You misread what he wrote, imo. I understood exactly what he meant there the first time he wrote it.



He contradicted himself. Therefore, I don’t need to follow your flawed logic.

“Single Line at $3.75 total wager per round > Triple play at $3.75 total wager per round”

That reads like an opinion and I don’t debate opinions. If you understand the different of N-Play (Moody’s patent) and multi-line video poker without covariance, then we might have a conversation.

Obviously my earlier explanation went over your head. One hand at $3.75 is no different than 3 independent hands at $1.25 at the same time, respectively, other things being equal.
Mission146
Mission146
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January 15th, 2020 at 4:47:24 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

You misread what he wrote, imo. I understood exactly what he meant there the first time he wrote it.

Variance in DOLLARS is as follows:

Single Line at $3.75 total wager per round > Triple play at $3.75 total wager per round > Single line at $1.25 total wager per round.

Generally speaking for variance in terms of money:

When you are betting the same amount per LINE, then more lines equals more variance. (e.g. dollar 100-play has more variance than dollar single line in terms of money.)

When you are betting the same total bet per ROUND of play, then more lines equal less variance. (e.g. dollar single line has more variance than penny 100-play in terms of money.)



Thanks! I think that's what I was trying to get across, but I only said the first part in the way I intended to.
Vultures can't be choosers.
EVBandit
EVBandit
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January 21st, 2020 at 11:06:37 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Thanks! I think that's what I was trying to get across, but I only said the first part in the way I intended to.



Mission146, I told you not to play games.

Part I
tringlomane's post makes it clear s/he is clueless about variance in VP. The OP asked about variance. Misson146 answered the post about variance. I corrected Mission146's mistake about variance when applied to multi-games. Then tringlomane introduces variance in DOLLARS, which was never a part of the original conversation amongst the three persons involved; and, by the way tringlomane is still wrong.

It's clear to me tringlomane (based on his/her post) is logic challenged or video-poker theory challenged or both.

I will start with how denomination does not affect variance. Supposed you played computer perfect VP on 9/6 JoB. The variance for 9/6 JoB doesn't change because you decided to play $0.05 vs $0.10 vs $0.25, etc different denomination. It doesn't matter what denomination you play, the variance of the game didn't change. If you played $10,000 of action in nickels or $10,000 of action in dollar machines, the variance ought to be the same.

Therefore tringlomane' comment "Variance in DOLLARS is as follows: Single Line at $3.75 total wager per round > Triple play at $3.75 total wager per round" is patently wrong. tringlomane clearly doesn't get this point based on his/her comment.

My point is something has to change to CAUSE the variance of the game to change under the standard of computer perfect play.

Part II
So let's look at what DOES CHANGE VARIANCE in a video poker game. Again, the standard is computer perfect play for 9/6 JoB.

The first thing is strategy deviations:
- keeping a pat flush over 4 to the Royal Flush will cause the variance of the game to drop (the EV must also decline since you are now playing sub-optimally)
- going for a Royal Flush with a 3-card Royal vs High Pair (JJ, QQ, KK, AA) will cause the variance of the game to increase (the EV will also decline).

Playing short coins with computer perfect play will cause variance to decline.

Moody's patent on N-Play or Triple Play introduces covariance, aka co-movement in statistics so the variance DID CHANGE, in fact the variance of the game under computer perfect play INCREASED (other things beings equal).

Part III
In the absence of things that causes the variance to change, why would the (DOLLAR) variance of a $3.75 wager on a single line game be LARGER than a single game of Triple Play (also at the same $3.75 wager for the same game using computer perfect play)? It just makes no sense in light of the fact Triple Play has an "covariance effect".

Again, the key point is the SAME $3.75 is being wagered in both situation. tringlomane's argument is SOMEHOW the $3.75 single line WILL MAGICALLY result in more DOLLAR VARIANCE than a $3.75 wager on Triple Play (other things being equal)?

Simply unbelievable. This is why I don't like to play games or engage in gamesmanship.
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
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January 22nd, 2020 at 3:48:19 AM permalink
Quote: EVBandit

Playing short coins with computer perfect play will cause variance to decline.

The reason is the strategy changes. If you play single coin using perfect max coin strategy, it will cost you more. Playing single coin is not now and never was a winning video poker strategy. In any case, playing negative video poker games is a loser. The greater your coin-in, the more you lose. It's up to you to decide how much.

It's cold in Florida right now. Outside my home in Central Florida the temp is 33 degrees, feels like 22. Believe it or not, they issued a "Falling Iguana Warning" in Miami. And you thought snow was bad!
Last edited by: SingleCoinVP on Jan 22, 2020
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146tringlomane
January 22nd, 2020 at 5:06:36 AM permalink
Quote: EVBandit


Part III
In the absence of things that causes the variance to change, why would the (DOLLAR) variance of a $3.75 wager on a single line game be LARGER than a single game of Triple Play (also at the same $3.75 wager for the same game using computer perfect play)? It just makes no sense in light of the fact Triple Play has an "covariance effect".

Again, the key point is the SAME $3.75 is being wagered in both situation. tringlomane's argument is SOMEHOW the $3.75 single line WILL MAGICALLY result in more DOLLAR VARIANCE than a $3.75 wager on Triple Play (other things being equal)?

Simply unbelievable. This is why I don't like to play games or engage in gamesmanship.



First your posts are completely off putting.

Second the above does not make sense to me, but maybe I do not understand the setup.

Here’s my read of this example:

Play one hand of single line VP for $3.75.

Play one hand of triple play (really three co-varied hands because the initial five card deal is the same cards and only the drawing cards might differ) for $1.25 a hand for a total of $3.75 of the three lines.

Correct?

If so, the triple play will have the lower variance (in $ outcomes). The triple play will have higher variance than playing three hands of single line at $1.25 because of the positive covariance of the triple play hands. But lower variance (in $ outcome terms) than one hand of single line at $3.75.

That’s just elementary math. I won’t go so far as to call you math challenged like you did to tringlomane, since I think that would constitute a personal insult.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Jamespatrick12
Jamespatrick12
Joined: Nov 18, 2019
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January 22nd, 2020 at 5:45:02 AM permalink
Yes the chance is more high in my opinion.

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