100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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October 6th, 2019 at 12:22:36 PM permalink
$1 triple play 9/5 ddb
3 royals $16k
Royal on line 1: $4k, line2: $9k, line3: $6k

How to calc EV of the entire game?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
sabre
sabre
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
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October 6th, 2019 at 1:48:45 PM permalink
Average the royals. Are you saying there's a bonus $16k if you hit all 3 in one hand? If so you can effectively disregard the extra value from that since it's a 1 in 600k+ event. Just treat it like a single hand with $6,333 royal.
KevinAA
KevinAA
Joined: Jul 6, 2017
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October 6th, 2019 at 2:38:50 PM permalink
The extra $10,000 for a dealt royal flush is $10,000/$5 or 2,000 times bet that has a 1 in 650,000 chance. 2000/650000=0.3%. Not much but I wouldn't call it insignificant either. The probability of drawing to a royal flush three times is pretty small (only 1 in 100,000 if you get dealt 4 to a royal flush).
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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October 6th, 2019 at 3:32:09 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

Average the royals. Are you saying there's a bonus $16k if you hit all 3 in one hand? If so you can effectively disregard the extra value from that since it's a 1 in 600k+ event. Just treat it like a single hand with $6,333 royal.


That's probably the easiest way of doing it.

If you are looking for a more accurate answer, you would have to recalculate the strategy based on the three progressive values, and I don't think any VP software out there does this sort of thing.
What you do is similar to how ER is calculated normally:
For each of the 2,598,960 hands (well, for each of the 134,459 "unique" hands, then multiply each one by the number of times it appears in the 2,598,960 - for example, four Aces and a deuce appear four times (once for each of the four deuces), while KKKQQ where one Queen is in the suit where you don't have a King (e.g. Ks Kh Kc Qs Qd) appear 12 times (four possible sets of Kings; for each one, three possible pairs of Queens)), check each of the 32 possible ways to discard; for each of the 32 ways, add up the EVs for the three hands, and the one with the highest total EV is the play for that hand. Add up all of those "best play EVs" to get the total EV.
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
Joined: May 10, 2011
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October 6th, 2019 at 5:15:57 PM permalink
I donít understand the royal pays here. What exactly does it pay for a royal on all 3 lines? Each individual line?
I heart Crystal Math.

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