royal
royal
Joined: May 15, 2019
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May 15th, 2019 at 11:50:49 AM permalink
Howdy everyone, long time lurker, finally got around to signing up.

Stumbled across a video poker machine with a game I've never seen before:
Joker Poker that pays for jacks or better.

This is on a double super times pay machine (25 cent denom, 7 coins)

The paytable is as follows at 7 coins:
Royal natural 4000
5OaK 1000
Royal w/ joker 500
Straight Flush 250
4OaK 75
FH 35
Flush 25
Straight 15
3OaK 10
2 Pair 5
Jack or better 5

I cant find jacks or better joker poker in any of the available calculators online, I'm guessing because of the crap payout for 4 of a kind the game is only in the 97-98% range but I cant figure out how to calculate it :( Nonetheless it's definitely a fun game.

Any tips on how to analyze this? Thanks
Last edited by: royal on May 15, 2019
Mission146
Mission146
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May 15th, 2019 at 12:10:13 PM permalink
Quote: royal

Howdy everyone, long time lurker, finally got around to signing up.

Stumbled across a video poker machine with a game I've never seen before:
Joker Poker that pays for jacks or better.

This is on a double super times pay machine (25 cent denom, 7 coins)

The paytable is as follows at 7 coins:
Royal natural 4000
5OaK 1000
Royal w/ joker 500
4OaK 75
FH 35
Flush 25
Straight 15
3OaK 10
2 Pair 5
Jack or better 5

I cant find jacks or better joker poker in any of the available calculators online, I'm guessing because of the crap payout for 4 of a kind the game is only in the 97-98% range but I cant figure out how to calculate it :( Nonetheless it's definitely a fun game.

Any tips on how to analyze this? Thanks



You definitely guess wrong when it comes to the overall return of the game. The 4OaK is the only area that hurts, otherwise that would be a decent Joker Poker (Kings) paytable. 96.3848% return using this:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/analyzer/

As it stands above.

Now, I don't know how to get you the exact answer that you want, but what I do have some idea how to do is get close by making an extrapolation. According to the calculator for the Kings or Better game, the probability of getting Kings or Better is 0.140901, which is also the return that comes from that result. I would say that we could take this to mean, without making any other strategy changes than you almost always hold a pair of jacks or queens, that you double the frequency of Kings or Better and that is your approximate frequency of Jacks or Better. That would increase the return of the game by about 14% to over 110%.

Again, there would be some strategy changes (a few obvious) and a few other assumptions we could make. Straight Flushes and Flushes now become less likely because we are holding JJ or QQ over a four-flush or various straight flush draws. Royals become less likely (and wild royals) because we now hold JJ or QQ over certain draws of that type. 3OaK, 4OaK and 5OaK all become more likely because we are (naturally) holding more pairs.

If it sounds too good to be true...I'm not going to ask where this is at (PM me if you like) but are you sure it is a Class III machine and not a Class II?
Vultures can't be choosers.
GaryJKoehler
GaryJKoehler
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May 15th, 2019 at 12:18:43 PM permalink
What does the Straight Flush pay?
GaryJKoehler
GaryJKoehler
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May 15th, 2019 at 12:38:15 PM permalink
By the way, as the Wiz points out on
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/double-super-times-pay/
the strategy is the same as the conventional video poker.

Assuming the multipliers and probabilities are the same as the usual DSTP game, the EV is 1.004126984 × b + 0.000921844 where b is the base game EV.
GaryJKoehler
GaryJKoehler
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May 15th, 2019 at 12:45:48 PM permalink
Assuming a SF pays 250, the base game (Joker poker Jacks) EV is 1.0492. Seems too good to be true (again, assuming the probs and multipliers are the same as the normal DSTP game.)
Mission146
Mission146
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May 15th, 2019 at 12:53:20 PM permalink
Quote: GaryJKoehler

Assuming a SF pays 250, the base game (Joker poker Jacks) EV is 1.0492. Seems too good to be true (again, assuming the probs and multipliers are the same as the normal DSTP game.)



Why is it not higher? Shouldn't the Kings/Aces probability just be doubled as a quick answer to account for the Jacks and Queens? It seems like it wouldn't affect what happens after the draws much, just the holding frequencies.
Vultures can't be choosers.
GaryJKoehler
GaryJKoehler
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Thanks for this post from:
royal
May 15th, 2019 at 1:08:39 PM permalink
Prob jacks or better in a Jacks or Better Joker game is 0.224515 and in a Kings or better game the prob Kings or better is 0.141348, so not quite doubled - more like 1.6 times.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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May 15th, 2019 at 1:19:20 PM permalink
Quote: GaryJKoehler

Prob jacks or better in a Jacks or Better Joker game is 0.224515 and in a Kings or better game the prob Kings or better is 0.141348, so not quite doubled - more like 1.6 times.



Thank you very much! Can you or anyone offer a guess as to why that might be? I'm coming up blank. I would say lots of 2P and Trips that you would be getting anyway, but that's also true of holding KK and AA. Could it maybe have a lot to do with the joker as well as a J/Q and another suited Royal card...especially with the downgraded return on 4OaK? Is it because more two card Royals with high cards get held? One would think that would increase frequency of all high pairs.

I always like to start with the intuitive and I'm just not figuring it. Any ideas?
Vultures can't be choosers.
GaryJKoehler
GaryJKoehler
Joined: Oct 22, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
royal
May 15th, 2019 at 1:33:09 PM permalink
Oops, the 0.141348 should have been 0.140901. Copied the wrong number. These probs might help:
Jacks Kings
RSF 0.000026 0.000025
5K 0.000093 0.000093
WRSF 0.000108 0.000105
SF 0.000604 0.000597
4K 0.008465 0.008499
FH 0.015584 0.015618
FL 0.015764 0.015893
STR 0.017907 0.016894
3K 0.13244 0.133207
2P 0.110637 0.110621
JB/KB 0.224515 0.140901
royal
royal
Joined: May 15, 2019
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
May 15th, 2019 at 5:14:34 PM permalink
Surprising number of replies so quickly, thanks everyone! The straight flush in indeed worth 250 coins, I edited my original post to reflect that.



It is a class III machine. I think I can figure out how to get a good approximation of the value on this game by looking at the frequencies on some other games as some of you have suggested, sounds like a very consuming process but I will work on it when I have some time. I also have no clue on how to figure out the multiplier frequency.

I'm not going to drop the location just yet (sorry). If the game is indeed in the 110% range that would be awesome, but I doubt i'm that lucky haha.
I can't upload a photo for proof since I don't yet have 20 posts but here it is:

i67.tinypic*com/10gi9go.png


Quote: Mission146

Thank you very much! Can you or anyone offer a guess as to why that might be? I'm coming up blank. I would say lots of 2P and Trips that you would be getting anyway, but that's also true of holding KK and AA. Could it maybe have a lot to do with the joker as well as a J/Q and another suited Royal card...especially with the downgraded return on 4OaK? Is it because more two card Royals with high cards get held? One would think that would increase frequency of all high pairs.

I always like to start with the intuitive and I'm just not figuring it. Any ideas?


I think the probability of JoB is not quite doubled because you will be throwing away some of the jacks/queens when you hold for bigger hands.
I.e. Jh-8c-9c-Tc-Jc

Since the combinations of kings or better are made up of 9 out of the 53 card, (4xK, 4xA and 1 Jok) adding in queens and jacks makes that 17/53 cards it's not quite double. I dont even have the slightest idea on where to begin calculating that part but maybe that has something to do with it?
Last edited by: royal on May 15, 2019

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