9/6 JoB comments/questions

I am looking to add Video Poker to the arsenal of games I play on my Reno Peppermill trips. I have my cheat sheet and have been practicing. I know how to find full pay machines. I want to make sure that I have a full grasp of expectations when I substitute a 8-10 hour day bouncing around various slot machines, vs. a similar stint playing JoB.

I calculate that a full day of video poker will result in 4000 wagers by the end of the day, with a total of $5,000 run through the machine ($1.25 per play). If the ROI is 99.54% and one standard deviation is +/- 4.42, then the following should apply, given my $5,000 worth of gaming activity.

Day from hell (-3 SD) -$700 +/-
Very bad day (-2 SD) -$465
Average bad day (-1 SD) -$244
Expected Value -$ 23
Average good day (+1) +$198
Very Good day (+2) +$419
WoW!!!! (+3) +$650 (or more)

Did I understand ROI and SD correctly?

When I compare with a day at the slots, my play could be 5,000 pushes per day at $1.50 per push (i.e., $7,500 per day). If the ROI is 95%, then the EV for a full day of play is -$375. I don't have a feel for the SD (anyone else know?), but if it is around 5.0, then I need to have finish 1 SD above the mean, just to break even. I have endured slots days with a $1,000 loss (works out to be at -2 SD), based on my assumption. These bad days have occured often enough that I suspect that my ROI estimate is too high, and that my SD estimate is too low. Any Thoughts? Favored slots include Aristocrat (Buffalos, 5 dragons gold, and Kittys), and Bally (multiple versions of Quick Hits).

Don't bother with the Peppermill, go over to the Western Village. Much better place if you like VP. Ironically they are owned by the Peppermill but you need to have their respective players card, but points are good at booth places. Certain days it's 7 X comp dollars. Sometimes it's tough to find a machine though, especially at the bar.

I visit Peppermill twice a year, one week per visit. My play is sufficient to have all my stays comped. I fly in from the east coast, and do not rent a car. My problem would be getting to and from the Western Village. Any ideas?

For example, if WV offers a shuttle to/from the airport, I could use the shuttles to get back and forth.

Uber or Lyft? Rental cars are usually very cheap in Reno. Free airport shuttle so even if you want to just rent a car for 1 or 2 days or over the weekend vs an entire week is an option.

You will have to go eat at the WV steakhouse, best in Reno and not overly priced.

Are car rentals cheap in Reno? I'm not seeing many.

Quote: billryan

Are car rentals cheap in Reno? I'm not seeing many.

Well it use to be when you could bid on Priceline, but they did away with the name your own price with rental cars. My friend use to get them for under $10 a day. I guess it really depends on the time of year, weekly or weekend pricing. The city is small enough that Uber or Lyft is cheap, taxis are very expensive though. The public bus system is decent and you can get an all day pass for $3. 75.

I'm looking to see Virginia City, Carson City and Tahoe. Uber is out. I'm debating a five day trip in my car, driving from Vegas or flying in and renting for a three day trip.
This is my first trip up there and is mostly sightseeing, not gambling. Traveling solo, most likely.

The drive between Vegas and Reno up 95 sucks.. But if you go through Death Valley and up 395 straddling the east side of the Sierra is at least scenic. Either way, you pretty much lose an entire day driving. Allegiant has some real low fares but they only fly up twice a week, maybe three. The gambling is nothing like Vegas, we are all low rollers up here.