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Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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November 1st, 2017 at 2:44:51 AM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

I thought it was just me but I didn't think it looked that fast either,but definitely faster than I play.

The only difference I saw was hitting the draw button multiple times quickly to go from hand to hand. I don't hit it nearly as quick but I am certain that I play the actual game at or quicker. Maybe this weekend I will try hitting deal like he was.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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November 1st, 2017 at 3:53:29 AM permalink
Quote: BTLWI

I would guess it's easily beatable. Am I the only be person that didn't think the video was that fast?

When I was watching him play the first time (when he played two machines), I didn't think he was playing all that fast (per machine), either. I figured it was in the 800-1000 HPH range. But sure enough, he was doing something like 1150-1350 HPH on that machine I was watching, later when I watched the video.
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November 1st, 2017 at 10:12:09 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

Quote: Mission146

Put the emphasis on, FAR BETTER, that's a difference of more than five bets, in terms of EV, on any 200-25-etc playtable. Going for the natural is nothing short of a tremendous mistake. Now, in the sense of how frequently you're going to see that specific opportunity, which isn't really worth it to me to figure out just for this purpose, it wouldn't detract a TON from your overall EV, I wouldn't think. Maybe a few thousandths of a percent to as much as one or two hundreths, something like that...

Far better?

Wild Royal pay 25
Royal pays 800
Odds of getting the royal on the draw, 1/47 * 800 = 17.021
Odds of getting a deuce on the draw 3/47 * 25 = 1.597 (the three remaining dues)
Odds of getting a flush on the draw 7/47 * 3 = .446 (3 to 9 suited)
Odds of getting a straight on the draw 3/47 * 2 = .128 (the missing card to the royal in another suit)
Odds of busting out 33 / 47 = (3 3-9s = 21 + 4 face cards not matching the missing card in alternate suits).

Total return on drawing = 19.191

You are looking at a 5.809 unit difference on something that happens once in every 32,487 deals. (80/2598960). I will take the 0.017879% I give up in HA for the variance any day**

**Except in Multi-Strike where I take the wild royal level 1 because it breaks my heart to get a Royal at the 1x bet.

With all due respect, I think we agree completely with exception to the characterization as, "Far better."

Yes, to me, in excess of a five unit difference is a, far better hold. In the context of FPDW, that's more than a 4OaK difference, even more so on the 98.91% Deuces I play.

I also agree with you, and believe I acknowledged, that making that ONE deviation, in and of itself, will not reduce your overall RTP too much due to how rarely it comes up.

The leg up you have on many other gamblers is that you know what it's going to cost in theoretical, so you're making an informed decision.

But, I consider it a, "Tremendous mistake," in the sense that your average best available hold (obviously) is generally worth nowhere near five bets. In terms of, "Reasonable," holds, I think making that incorrect hold for a difference of five credits is the worst possible, "Reasonable," hold that could be made second only to breaking Trip Deuces off of a dealt Dirty Royal.
Last edited by: Mission146 on Nov 1, 2017
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
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November 1st, 2017 at 10:48:31 AM permalink
I don't know. If I were given the option of going to a casino and getting a free spoin and being told "you have won $24". Do you want to spin again for a 1/50 chance of winning $800? I would probably say yes at that point.

Though in the long run I completely understand that 5 units is 5 units and that any leak from the overall HA due to your errors is taking away from your long term if you make that decision everytime. The thing is that over a year, I might see 100,000 hands or three or about 3 of the 4 to a royal with 2 situation. Do I care about losing $3.75 for 3 shots of winning $800, given that it costs me $400 in gas to get to and from the casino every week for a year?

I get the fact that if you play often enough (daily or even a few times a week) and see something on the order of 10,000 hands per session decisions like these affect livelihood. But at some point there are decisions where the "fun" of experiencing positive variance overtakes the mechanicalism of doing exactly the right thing every time.
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November 6th, 2017 at 12:11:22 PM permalink
A bird in the hand is worth 2/3 in the bush.
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December 24th, 2017 at 9:17:52 AM permalink
can't keep up.

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