CrystalMath
CrystalMath
Joined: May 10, 2011
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September 10th, 2016 at 4:17:07 PM permalink
I've been interested in this for a while, and there have been multiple threads discussing this recently, so I wrote a simulator to determine the risk of ruin.

The reason that a simulator is a good option is that VP does not follow a normal distribution with a low number of games played, and it is very likely that the players lowest credit balance is lower than the ending credit balance, so attempting to use the normal distribution leads to erroneous results.

The simulator performs 100,000 Diamond in a Day sessions, where the player earns 5000 tier credits.

So far, I only have it built for Jacks or Better, and the variables I can change are:
denom
number of hands (lines)
dollars per tier credit
paytable

Here's a link to a google doc DIAD ROR which shows the risk of ruin for various settings. Some of these may not be offered, but I included some that I know are available. Maybe in a future revision, I could list where each config is available (according to VPFree2).

It's an eye opener to me, because I assumed the ROR to be much less.

If it is of interest, I think I may add deuces wild next, and I'm open to taking suggestions as to which specific configurations to simulate.
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Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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September 10th, 2016 at 4:23:59 PM permalink
Great post!!!
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GWAE
GWAE
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September 10th, 2016 at 4:24:35 PM permalink
Is the 3rd column correct? It shows a .02 with only $4000?

I never understand RoR on these type of things. It seems like $1 3 line is the best option. Am I reading that right?
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CrystalMath
CrystalMath
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September 10th, 2016 at 4:36:51 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Is the 3rd column correct? It shows a .02 with only $4000?

I never understand RoR on these type of things. It seems like $1 3 line is the best option. Am I reading that right?



Yes, it shows 0.028 = 2.8% risk of ruin with $4000. $1 3 play does look like the best. 9/5 Jacks is available at Planet Hollywood, and I read another post where someone found 9/6 for $10 per TC, but I'm sure that's not in Vegas.
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MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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September 10th, 2016 at 5:36:07 PM permalink
Are columns G or I in Las Vegas? That might be a good distraction during G2E -- and a good place to sit for a few hours and recover from standing on the under-padded floor in the expo hall.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
Joined: May 10, 2011
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September 10th, 2016 at 5:44:56 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Are columns G or I in Las Vegas? That might be a good distraction during G2E -- and a good place to sit for a few hours and recover from standing on the under-padded floor in the expo hall.



Column I is at Paris. Spin poker in the high limit room.
Column G is not in Vegas. I saw it in another thread and the location is not specified.

Actually, I didn't do that one right, since the draw cards are correlated.

On second thought, you could play column I at Planet Hollywood, assuming you could play 5 credits on just 9 lines on a 50 or 100 play machine. But, it may be better to play a different number of lines - I'll need to find out.
Last edited by: CrystalMath on Sep 10, 2016
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vegas
vegas
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September 10th, 2016 at 7:12:02 PM permalink
Thanks so much this post. Really puts things in perspective.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
Deucekies
Deucekies
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September 10th, 2016 at 10:34:26 PM permalink
Fantastic post, Crystal! Thanks!
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100xOdds
100xOdds
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September 11th, 2016 at 5:29:50 AM permalink
thx!

dstp (9/5 JoB) = 99%
$1 10line/$2 5 line
ev should be -$500 for DiaD.

whats the standard deviation on that (in terms of $, like you have in the spreadsheet)?
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CrystalMath
CrystalMath
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September 11th, 2016 at 7:41:42 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

thx!

dstp (9/5 JoB) = 99%
$1 10line/$2 5 line
ev should be -$500 for DiaD.

whats the standard deviation on that (in terms of $, like you have in the spreadsheet)?



Do you have an idea about the probability of each multiplier? From there, I can tweak the probabilities to get the right average multiplier. This will be easy to sim after I get that.
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