4 of a kind Cycle Bonus

If the play is "indefinite" then yes, I would continue to play. I was just asking in case it was a shorter play, like a day or a week. Because then you could calculate a finite EV +- 3SD and if you're far out to the right then there's no point in centering yourself. See my blackjack example above, but the difference is here you ARE going to keep playing after hitting some mark.

Quote: Romes

What I'm saying is let's assume the promotion lasted for 24 hours. Let's say given how fast the OP plays he plans to play 3 cycles, for a net gain of (making numbers up) $600. So in the first few hours the op is lucky and hits 2 cycles and 2 royals for $2500. His expected value from the play is $600. The more hands he plays the more he will gravitate towards his EV for the play, meaning his money "won" will go down.

This crosses near a fine line of "the gamblers fallacy" I assure you I'm aware, but it always makes for a fun theoretical discussion. It's like saying I'm gonna play 1,000,000 hands of blackjack with an average edge of 1% and a $100 avg bet. So after 1,000,000 hands I'll expect to make $1,000,000. Let's say in the first 200,000 hands you're up $1,500,000... Let's also assume you're never playing the game of blackjack again when you hit 1,000,000 hands (like when promotions run out). The "long run" numbers state that even with your standard deviations by the time you hit 1,000,000 hands you're going to be DOWN from where you are now. So why would you keep playing?

that reminds me of a wild roller coaster ride on a cruise ship I experienced. Won 3K 1st night, 4k 2nd night, 8K third night. Everyone always asks why I didn't quit. Why? Cause I was having too much damn fun! And the scotch was free, except for tips.....;-)

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

that reminds me of a wild roller coaster ride on a cruise ship I experienced. Won 3K 1st night, 4k 2nd night, 8K third night. Everyone always asks why I didn't quit. Why? Cause I was having too much damn fun! And the scotch was free, except for tips.....;-)

lol well I'm quite glad for your success, and continued success on that trip, but for others I do want to point out this is quite different than the scenario I'm proposing =).

"What'll really bake your noodle later is if you'd of still broken it had I not said anything..."

Quote: Romes

If the play is "indefinite" then yes, I would continue to play. I was just asking in case it was a shorter play, like a day or a week. Because then you could calculate a finite EV +- 3SD and if you're far out to the right then there's no point in centering yourself. See my blackjack example above, but the difference is here you ARE going to keep playing after hitting some mark.

I understand your point. The problem is for someone like me is that I am always going to be playing some sort of game with about the same win rate so why stop. Also, your right that the numbers will even out down the road but on this exact play it is virtually impossible for them to get this money back. We are talking about single line Full Pay Job with an extra promo on top of it to help out the variance. Progressive Royal as well. I could run 4 or 5 royal cycles behind but I honestly have never ran that bad in 20 years of VP. Your talking 150 to 200 thousand hands without a Royal. I have heard of people running this bad but it is usually on one specific machine and they even admit that they have hit other royals outside of that specific play. My point is ... it is really hard to run that bad at Full Pay JoB. Impossible... no but highly unlikely.

You keep knocking my hand per hour though which is funny. If you seen how fast my fingers move and how fast these machines fly you might reconsider the snub. Also when I hit a quad I move to the next machine and keep playing waiting for my signatures. Sometimes I have 3 machines waiting.

Ha, I wasn't the one earlier knocking your hands per hour. I did the "1,000 hands" for their amusement. I'm fairly confident I can also play correctly at about 1100 hands per hour, but my partner doesn't like it when we go that fast because he's convinced at that speed we must be making mistakes. So we usually play, and estimate, about 900 hands per hour.

Quote: Romes

Ha, I wasn't the one earlier knocking your hands per hour. I did the "1,000 hands" for their amusement. I'm fairly confident I can also play correctly at about 1100 hands per hour, but my partner doesn't like it when we go that fast because he's convinced at that speed we must be making mistakes. So we usually play, and estimate, about 900 hands per hour.

Thats fair. I don't have a problem doing 1100 hands for the first hour with no mistakes on these machines but your right ... I might average closer to 900-1000 and now that I am getting older it is getting harder but I still find myself zoning in and I know for a fact these type of machines can pull 1200 an hour. My biggest problem is sometimes I get a little too fast and hit deal/draw too fast and blast through a hand. Id say that has happened to me twice on this play in the last 21 hrs throwing one pair away once and two pair away another time. I hate that sh**t and I have to slow myself down when I do make mistakes. So the lesson is that it is better to play slower and not make mistakes but I'm a little OCD so what can I say.

I debated if I was going to come in here and brag a bit. I decided why not lol. This promo turned out to be really good in April and not so bad in May and now it is still ok to play but I'm a bit burned out on it. I was wrong that the Bingo Card was going to be moved to 1250 total. Instead it was only 1000 total so they have 3 cards paying 250/250/500. The thing that I didn't tell everyone was that they have 3 machines of 10/7 Double Bonus at decent speed.

So I went in on April 1st and the bar was packed and I didn't want to deal with the noise and smoke. I decided to play some other game that is quarters and full pay on the floor. I start hearing all the jazz on the loud speaker about all the new promos going on and I hear if you crack 2 quarter royals in 24 hrs we will give you a 3k bonus! Oh really I thought! That sounds really good. I am thinking maybe I will go to the bar and fight the smoke after all. Well I just can't seem to get up from my machine and after about 4 hrs of play I am up 300 and somehow I crack a Royal!

I am sure you all remember Flush Attack... well this is Royal Flush Attack now! My light is on for 24 hrs on the first day right after someone just hit back to back royals for the extra 3k. Actually it is a local player who enjoys playing 8/5 DD for some reason. Oh well at least he got a nice bonus before he will end up losing it all playing bad video poker. So the bar has died down a bit and I decide to play the lighting machines on JoB instead of the Full Pay DB. I play for a good 11 hrs before I decide to go sleep it up and come back in 5 hours or so. As planned I took a nap and came back with 7 hrs to spare. I hear that some guy played for 23.5 hrs before hitting his second royal getting the extra 3k bonus so that is number 2 only two days into the promo. I think this can not last long lol! Not long after that I smack my second Royal with about 6 hours to spare and collect my 3k bonus!

I know that I am not going to play much anymore and I wanted to go downtown to check on a Dollar Reel Progressive I have been tracking. Sure enough about 30mins in I crack that for 4300 for a profit of 4050 but I did lose 1200 a few days before on that game so not exactly that much profit as stated. Running good today!! I call my best or only friend in the world and tell him about the Royal Promo and we head back and play some more. So he cracks a Royal beside me and I am happy for him but now he is locked in and after some time I go home and go to bed and hope for a picture on my phone before I wake up. I don't get the picture and I sleep a good 9 hours or so. After my shower I have a text message waiting and sure enough it is his second for the 3k bonus!! How long can this promo last... I wonder?

I screw up and tell some guy I know at the Horseshoe and sure enough I start to see some of the same old faces at the bar playing a few days later. As if this isn't a long story already but I am going to keep it short now. I am sure all of you know John Ho but anyway he cracks 9 Royals for the month with 3 bonuses... My buddy cracks 7 Royals with 2 Bonuses... I crack 10 Royals with 3 Bonuses... Although 1 Half Dollar Royal that I missed the bonus on and 1 Dollar Royal which was on the last day and I was too tired to go for the extra 5k Bonus on that one. Not to mention many other players cracking Royals all month long so yes they decided to stick with the Promo and not close it down. I'd say they gave about 75k away in Bonus Money.

The next month which was May, they cut the Bonus down and I played Halfs for the most part taking advantage of the drawing tickets. I made only 1 Royal and No Bonus but still made some profit for the month go figure. Of course I did not hammer it like in April. Now they have gone back to the old standby and the Promo is still decent but nothing like in April but hey you still got the 4 of a kind Cycle Bonus which was what this Post was all about in the first place.

The best part is that since the start of the new year I am ahead over 30k, playing mostly quarters, just from this one place alone not counting all the other plays I am trying to maintain.

So the point is that whoever suggested that I stop this promo because I was up a couple of Royals from the Jump was playing a little scared :) !

Quote: monet0412

I debated if I was going to come in here and brag a bit. I decided why not lol. This promo turned out to be really good in April and not so bad in May and now it is still ok to play but I'm a bit burned out on it. I was wrong that the Bingo Card was going to be moved to 1250 total. Instead it was only 1000 total so they have 3 cards paying 250/250/500. The thing that I didn't tell everyone was that they have 3 machines of 10/7 Double Bonus at decent speed.

So I went in on April 1st and the bar was packed and I didn't want to deal with the noise and smoke. I decided to play some other game that is quarters and full pay on the floor. I start hearing all the jazz on the loud speaker about all the new promos going on and I hear if you crack 2 quarter royals in 24 hrs we will give you a 3k bonus! Oh really I thought! That sounds really good. I am thinking maybe I will go to the bar and fight the smoke after all. Well I just can't seem to get up from my machine and after about 4 hrs of play I am up 300 and somehow I crack a Royal!

I am sure you all remember Flush Attack... well this is Royal Flush Attack now! My light is on for 24 hrs on the first day right after someone just hit back to back royals for the extra 3k. Actually it is a local player who enjoys playing 8/5 DD for some reason. Oh well at least he got a nice bonus before he will end up losing it all playing bad video poker. So the bar has died down a bit and I decide to play the lighting machines on JoB instead of the Full Pay DB. I play for a good 11 hrs before I decide to go sleep it up and come back in 5 hours or so. As planned I took a nap and came back with 7 hrs to spare. I hear that some guy played for 24.5 hrs before hitting his second royal getting the extra 3k bonus so that is number 2 only two days into the promo. I think this can not last long lol! Not long after that I smack my second Royal with about 6 hours to spare and collect my 3k bonus!

I know that I am not going to play much anymore and I wanted to go downtown to check on a Dollar Reel Progressive I have been tracking. Sure enough about 30mins in I crack that for 4300 for a profit of 4050 but I did lose 1200 a few days before on that game so not exactly that much profit as stated. Running good today!! I call my best or only friend in the world and tell him about the Royal Promo and we head back and play some more. So he cracks a Royal beside me and I am happy for him but now he is locked in and after some time I go home and go to bed and hope for a picture on my phone before I wake up. I don't get the picture and I sleep a good 9 hours or so. After my shower I have a text message waiting and sure enough it is his second for the 3k bonus!! How long can this promo last... I wonder?

I screw up and tell some guy I know at the Horseshoe and sure enough I start to see some of the same old faces at the bar playing a few days later. As if this isn't a long story already but I am going to keep it short now. I am sure all of you know John Ho but anyway he cracks 9 Royals for the month with 3 bonuses... My buddy cracks 7 Royals with 2 Bonuses... I crack 10 Royals with 3 Bonuses... Although 1 Half Dollar Royal that I missed the bonus on and 1 Dollar Royal which was on the last day and I was too tired to go for the extra 5k Bonus on that one. Not to mention many other players cracking Royals all month long so yes they decided to stick with the Promo and not close it down. I'd say they gave about 75k away in Bonus Money.

The next month which was May, they cut the Bonus down and I played Halfs for the most part taking advantage of the drawing tickets. I made only 1 Royal and No Bonus but still made some profit for the month go figure. Of course I did not hammer it like in April. Now they have gone back to the old standby and the Promo is still decent but nothing like in April but hey you still got the 4 of a kind Cycle Bonus which was what this Post was all about in the first place.

The best part is that since the start of the new year I am ahead over 30k, playing mostly quarters, just from this one place alone not counting all the other plays I am trying to maintain.

So the point is that whoever suggested that I stop this promo because I was up a couple of Royals from the Jump was playing a little scared :) !

Great job (dont tell Blackhole because according to him it's impossible)

Going back to your original post and my response to that and so on, I kinda have an issue. IIRC we looked at this promo(probably in May and it didn't seem all that appealing mainly because you have only 24 hours and that hurts your EV) I'm fairly certain I know the location, unless 2 places were doing something similar.

My issue is... when I was surprised A BAR had a 9/6 progressive(or whatever) and I raised an eyebrow. Well it makes sense now because I don't consider this place A BAR It's a casino. That's why I was skeptical at first.

Oh God John Ho.... Luckily the loud band drowned him out(actually you can hear him shouting undesirable impossible to understanding nonsense across the the entire casino, band or not.)

Not hard to find now. Everyone knew about it after April and some knew about it right before April and most didn't want to sit around and play all day and night for a 3k bonus which I understand. My point is that I have been playing over there for years on end when it was good and not so good but the Bingo Card Promo has been on for over a year now and that was the real point to the OP. I just happened to fall into a better Promo in April and May which is always nice :) ! However I did have to put in over 200 hours for the month of April to hit 10 royals.

Quote: monet0412

Not hard to find now. Everyone knew about it after April and some new about it right before April and most didn't want to sit around and play all day and night for a 3k bonus which I understand. My point is that I have been playing over there for years on end when it was good and not so good but the Bingo Card Promo has been on for over a year now and that was the real point to the OP. I just happened to fall into a better Promo in April and May which is always nice :) ! However I did have to put in over 200 hours for the month of April to hit 10 royals.

Sorry i accidently hit post before i finished(still getting used to this touch pad) you will have to go back and read the rest.

I was trying to be a little deceiving not saying a Casino in my OP so I just said Bar so that you and the rest of the Sharpies would take some time to figure it out... You understand :)

Quote: monet0412

Not hard to find now. Everyone knew about it after April and some new about it right before April and most didn't want to sit around and play all day and night for a 3k bonus which I understand. My point is that I have been playing over there for years on end when it was good and not so good but the Bingo Card Promo has been on for over a year now and that was the real point to the OP. I just happened to fall into a better Promo in April and May which is always nice :) ! However I did have to put in over 200 hours for the month of April to hit 10 royals.

Well someone didn't scout/ask questions properly (YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE) and get the proper information you could have 3 bingo cards going? IE If you hit aces once you could get another card going if you hit aces again? That makes a difference. Not that I would play it but that's important information.

They still have FPDW?

I almost ran the gamut on all 13 different quads yesterday. The ones I didn't get were 8's, J's, and Q's. Four of them were dealt quads, 7's, K's, 5's and deuces shown below. The first of the day was AWAK, on JoB naturally. The most of any rank was 2's three times (shown below).

This makes me think of my last few months of VP since I have been making Deuces at will. The best I ever did on one day in the last few months on trying to make a Bingo card is the same as you with 10 in one session. My usual is around 8 quads in one session and usually 2 the next and close the 13 out with the last two on the third session. Sometimes worse and sometimes better but this is my norm. For a few weeks I was dry on making 4 aces but recently that has changed and it seems that I can make 2 sets per day at will on games that pay more for aces of course. I know the dry spell is coming soon though!

Quote: monet0412

I was trying to be a little deceiving not saying a Casino in my OP so I just said Bar so that you and the rest of the Sharpies would take some time to figure it out... You understand :)

Yes I do, however I take back my apology for thinking you misread the paytable and possibly delusional :-). I just couldn't fathom a bar having a 9/6 progressive for a long time that got up regularly along with a bingo card.

I do appropriate you offering to tell me where it was even though It turns out I was already aware.

Sounds like with everything included it was a good little play without much risk.

You got a 3k bonus on > .25 < for the 2nd Royal???? (obviously it's not a $1500 bonus because of the 24 hour limitation. However that's a first I have seen a 3k bonus on the 2nd .25 RF



It's almost impossible to know the exact hourly unless you can play 24/7. I hate the hit a 2nd RF in 24 h promo. I would either not hit one, or hit one after 10 hours of play and no sleep. Now run home to sleep but can't sleep, I'd just lay awake, get back and have to jam away.

Apology... no Apology... Who cares lol! Well, I wasn't really trying to figure out the exact hourly. I just figured full pay game with Large Bingo Card equals Win! What I figured was how many hours per week could I put in. Of course I would put in more hours if I hit a royal and worry about sleep later. Instead of trying to figure out how much it was worth I just figured how many hands would I put in on the month and I figured with the amount I was going to play I would hit 9 Royals and 3 Bonuses. This is based on hitting a Royal every 30k Hands. I would be happy with 6 and 2 but as it turned out I hit 10 and 3 but the 10th was a Dollar Royal and I got plenty of crap since I only put in 5 hours to try to hit a 4k Royal with a 5k Bonus on top. Oddly enough I did hit another Royal in the 24 hours but it was at another Casino only on Halfs for 10mins of play for 3400 which was a nice consolation prize!

On a side note I have only hit one Royal for the Month of June and that was one on a 10 play Quarter machine last night on the last hand. I decided to cash out and leave with my 155 dollar win and 3000 in points.

I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong. Good job and congrats on everything working out well.

Quote: PokerGrinder

I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong. Good job and congrats on everything working out well.

so 4 or 5 times a day:)

Quote: AxelWolf

so 4 or 5 times a day:)

Way low, that's just before breakfast.