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Canyonero
Canyonero
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October 30th, 2015 at 5:18:49 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Well, thank you for the very detailed reply. This makes me look somewhat the fool for spending days writing a program to analyze American Poker assuming each card has the same probability.

Do you happen to know how the Novomatic game actually does work?

Funny how video poker is so popular in the US but has not gained any traction in any other country that I'm aware of. Perhaps Canada, but what are you going to do when you sleep next to a giant?



I have no insider information whatsoever as to the workings of these machines. But there are certain things that can be extrapolated from the regulations:

The RNG probabilitites must change according to the previous outcomes: The more you win, the less likely you are to win any more, same for losses.

In extreme cases this means:
If a total loss of 60 has occured within, for example, 40 minutes of play, you cannot lose for the next 15 minutes before the break.
Opposite goes for a 400 win within less than an hour - it is impossible to win any more.

So these machines actually can be "hot" and "cold" and can be vultured.

If you are due for a win, the machine will do all it can to make it happen. E.g. you are dealt trips, throw all five cards away and (often, not always!) miraculously draw a full house. I have personally observed this with several different types of hands.

Each individual game is taxed at 19%. Your bet (which constitutes a purchase) is taxed, not the money you take out! That means you already lose 19% the moment you press that button.

Putting all of the regulations together, the return of these machines must be somewhere between 40% and 60%.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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October 30th, 2015 at 9:26:30 PM permalink
Quote: Canyonero


If you are due for a win, the machine will do all it can to make it happen. E.g. you are dealt trips, throw all five cards away and (often, not always!) miraculously draw a full house. I have personally observed this with several different types of hands.



I was just going to make that statement. If it's not random and it has to pay out or not lose more than a certain amount, there would be times where you could be dealt a straight (or some other winner) and it wouldn't matter if you discarded all the cards, you'd win on the draw no matter what.

That is not a game I'd ever want to play.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
boymimbo
boymimbo
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October 30th, 2015 at 10:14:08 PM permalink
I can't read German, but slot machines are officially called "Amusement machines with prizes"
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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October 30th, 2015 at 11:51:54 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Funny how video poker is so popular in the US but has not gained any traction in any other country that I'm aware of. Perhaps Canada, but what are you going to do when you sleep next to a giant?

Poker is traditionally an American game, though. Maybe if you did some sort of paytable-based Video Skat or Video Tarot game you could attract European players. (Who's up for a bit of game design?)
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 31st, 2015 at 5:04:44 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

I was just going to make that statement. If it's not random and it has to pay out or not lose more than a certain amount, there would be times where you could be dealt a straight (or some other winner) and it wouldn't matter if you discarded all the cards, you'd win on the draw no matter what.

That is not a game I'd ever want to play.


ZCore13

from the description I just read this is a game you should want to play if you wanted an advantage. It sounds very interesting in the fact that you could gain an advantage dependent on how the last person faired.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 31st, 2015 at 6:54:09 AM permalink
Canyonero, if you're ever in Vegas, I owe you a beer, preferably at the Hofbrau Haus. I greatly appreciate your contribution to this thread.

For anyone interested, I made this video of me playing one of these games in a small slots-only casino.



The reason you hear so much clanking is I previously clicked the "cash out" button, but didn't know what it was because it was in German, so it was spitting out coins slowly and loudly into the hopper. I had to put in more money to keep playing.

Quote:

Putting all of the regulations together, the return of these machines must be somewhere between 40% and 60%.



My experience playing these games for a total of about half an hour is that they are quite tight, but not that bad. I would have roughly put the return at 75% based on my small sampling. I never got anything above a full house.

Regarding video poker outside the states, I'm sure no casino is eager for players to fall in love with them, as they do here. Reeled slots are much more profitable per machine.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Canyonero
Canyonero
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October 31st, 2015 at 2:48:43 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Canyonero, if you're ever in Vegas, I owe you a beer, preferably at the Hofbrau Haus. I greatly appreciate your contribution to this thread.



I will gladly take you up on that offer! And I have even more to add:

I found one of those machines in a casino (that is exempt from loss and win limits) today to find out if there was any indication that the machines worked differently in there. I did find an American Poker II *deluxe*, a little different (in looks only I assume) from the one the Wizard played

My opinion is: It is the same garbage. The machine looked and felt exactly the same and it is hard for me to imagine they would change the inner workings for the casino environment. (Except for a little higher RTP maybe.) Also, look at the little sentence in the light blue area.




It reads: "The probabilites of the cards are adjusted in favor of higher winnings and the second deal requires an additional bet."

What that is supposed to mean, though, is anyone's guess. But I am sure it does not mean "higher winnings". On another page it said that the probability of the Joker appearing was "reduced".

I played some other machines today as well (for research :)), icncluding another "poker" machine from a different manufacturer that followed the same rules. Man, German machines are no fun at all.
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 31st, 2015 at 3:30:27 PM permalink
Thanks for the additional research and translating that fine print. I also found and played American Poker at a conventional casino, the Spielbank at Potsdamer Platz. Same &#*@ as at the rinky-dink slot parlor near the Berlin zoo.

As our resident expert on Germany, I'd welcome your comments on some non-gambling spots I visited in Germany as described at DT.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 19th, 2018 at 12:42:50 AM permalink
Originally played Magic Poker (Wazdan) and the dealt jokers rate seemed a bit low, so with American Poker (also Wazdan) being faster to play I decided to count the joker's being dealt for it,

results are below

--------------------------------
Game: American Poker (American Gold Poker)
No. of Joker's in deck: 1
Joker's dealt on 1st five card draw (initial hand) : 27
Initial hands played: 900

--------------------------------
Update (about 80 minutes later)

(a) Is 900 initial hands a big enough sample size to determine if the joker's are 'fairly shuffled' ?

(b) What would the expected probability of hitting a Joker be (from a single game), if dealt from a 'fairly shuffled deck' ?

(c) Based on the answer to (b), what is the probability of 'hitting 27 (or fewer) joker's out of 900 ?

(d) If the answer to question (a) is 'yes', within how many standard deviations would the 27 out 900 result be, if:

(d) (i) the chance of hitting a joker on the initial deal was 40% of the answer derived from question (b) ?

(d) (ii) the chance of hitting a joker on the initial deal was 1/3 of the answer derived from question (b) ?

(d) (iii) the chance of hitting a joker on the initial deal was 2/7 of the answer derived from question (b) ?

(e) If the other 52 cards were 'shuffled fairly'. what would the chance of hitting a joker on the initial deal be to obtain an RTP of "...over 95%^^^..." (as claimed by the casino's website) ?

^^^: even though the website says "...over 95%...", work it out for a theoretical RTP of 95%, if that makes it easier

all these questions are too hard for me to work out the answer to, so thanks for your time in advance
-------------------------------

Interesting side note: I haven't tested Wazdan's American Poker for 'weird deals' yet', but their Magic Poker game definitely shuffles discarded cards back into the deck for the 2nd and 3rd draws (so that will reduce the RTP as well), see example below:

example: received 10-D (ten of diamonds), J-H, Q-H, K-H and 10-H on the first deal, kept the 4 to a royal flush and discarded 10 of diamonds, then on the second draw received the 10 Diamonds

Standard video poker 'burns' the discarded cards for the 2nd draw of the hand, right?


PS just realized the previous reply to this post was in 2015, sorry for starting it up again, : )
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 19, 2018

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