deuces $1 9500 progressive value

I'll try to post a pic of the pay schedule, but I'm wondering if this horrible schedule is+ev at 9500 for a royal.
Here's the pay schedule:

Royal 9500
deuces 1000
wild rf 100
5oak 60
sf 50
4oak 20
Full house 20
flush 15
str8 10
trips 5

I tried using the calculator but it kept giving errors.

Dumping those numbers into WinPoker gives me 100.3574% with variance of 105.73541.

Edit: Been running this through AutoPlay to get an idea of actual play... 540k hands..
For the majority of the time, it was hanging out significantly negative. Current return is 101.23%.

1m hands in, and it's giving actual results of 101.09%.
6m hands, 101.08%, and my tablet feels like it could cook an egg now.

Wow. Had a feeling it was plus ev though not a lot. Your numbers prove it out. Thanks!

Quote: Venthus

Dumping those numbers into WinPoker gives me 100.3574% with variance of 105.73541.

Edit: Been running this through AutoPlay to get an idea of actual play... 540k hands..
For the majority of the time, it was hanging out significantly negative. Current return is 101.23%.

1m hands in, and it's giving actual results of 101.09%.
6m hands, 101.08%, and my tablet feels like it could cook an egg now.

how many extra Royals does it have?

Well, I already dumped the previously mentioned session but re-ran it to see how it'd go. Right now, it's at 6.4m hands with:
Royal: 180
4Deuces: 1204
Royal w/D: 11784
5OAK: 19039
SF: 35043

Results are still slightly over expectation at 100.70%, but far closer than before. Also spent over 4m hands at under 100%.

Quote: Bigfshead

wild rf 100
5oak 60
sf 50

For deuces wild you can deduct that if they chop off pays like those I quoted you it's gonna be a pretty subpar game (95-96%). NSUD pays 125 for a WR, 80 for 5OAK, and 50 for a SF. My quick rule of thumb when doing royal calculations is to -1% or so if a paying hand is chopped in some way, of course you will be way off in guestimating your actual return but it's pretty handy if you have no basis to figure a progressive.

Another thing to consider is the drop, which is the % you will lose until you hit the royal, where the EV is. A 9/5 JoB machine (98.45%) with a double royal (2% or so) will be worth 100.45%, but you will run at 96.45% IF you hit everything else as much as you are supposed to in a royal cycle. This means on dollars playing 800 hands/hr at $4k coin in you will expect to lose $142/hr (3.55% x 4000), but this implies you hit a fraction of a straight flush since they are long hand cycles.

Once you learn the paytables for many variants you can eyeball a progressive to see if it's a good play, but personally I wouldn't touch anything less then 3% (learned this from Axel, as well as personal experience) since I do not want to rely on a royal to realize a return. I prefer to break even in between royal cycles, even better if the return is tied up in 4oaks, or lower pays with lower cycles.

Of course I realize you might not be in Vegas and don't get to sit back and wait for a progressive to go up. If you enjoy a +EV game, then by all means go for it. The mailers could probably factor into the return as well. Mailers and points = stability because it's money that you receive no matter how good or bad you run, unless the casino sends better mailers for losers.

Another thing to add, I played FPDW and came to the conclusion that getting paid more on a lower paying hand is MUCH better then having all the return tied up in a 4000+ hand cycle. This is why I hate games like DB or DDB. FPDW pays you 5 coins per bet on 4OAK, much better then the 4 you usually get. The flush and full house get chopped off (10 from 15, and 15 from 20 respectively) but I like it that way and will take the exchange.

Djatc, thanks for your post. This royal was at santa fe station on the last Sunday of regular season football, at the sports book bar. I don't recall if they had any point multiplier going.

I totally agree on the fpdw 4oak and such. I pretty much just play full pay machines. But I did take a tiny stab at this progressive. Cashed out 50 winners. Didn't like the ugly swing.

I've seen progressives ($1) over 10k, but the base game is 96%. This means even with a 3% increase built in (2% per $4000 rule, + 1% for $2000) the game was a LOSER.