Confusion on House Advantage for Wild Deuces
Quote: bubI was playing Deuces Wild and I had the "cheat" sheet with me from wizardofodds that gives the strategy in order to have a .76% player advantage over the house (100.76% player advantage). I followed the criteria religiously but still lost the $20 I started after 90 minutes, and I am confused as to why because I was under the impression that I would not lose most bets due the advantage being in my favor. Is this for more of a long term number or have I misinterpreted (which is totally possible) the optimal strategy implications? Any advice is appreciated.
Whether you have the edge has nothing to do with whether you win or lose most bets. Video poker has big swings, since so much of the payback is in big hands like royals.
Seriously? Use some logic here. If it was that easy there would be a mile long waiting list to get on the machines. You could play for months and months and still lose.Quote: bubI was playing Deuces Wild and I had the "cheat" sheet with me from wizardofodds that gives the strategy in order to have a .76% player advantage over the house (100.76% player advantage). I followed the criteria religiously but still lost the $20 I started after 90 minutes, and I am confused as to why because I was under the impression that I would not lose most bets due the advantage being in my favor. Is this for more of a long term number or have I misinterpreted (which is totally possible) the optimal strategy implications? Any advice is appreciated.
Quote: bubI was playing Deuces Wild and I had the "cheat" sheet with me from wizardofodds that gives the strategy in order to have a .76% player advantage over the house (100.76% player advantage). I followed the criteria religiously but still lost the $20 I started after 90 minutes, and I am confused as to why because I was under the impression that I would not lose most bets due the advantage being in my favor. Is this for more of a long term number or have I misinterpreted (which is totally possible) the optimal strategy implications? Any advice is appreciated.
If you look at his chart he shows you how the 100.76 comes to be. You will notice that the royal is worth something like 2.x% (I think)
so if you did not get a royal then you played at 98.X%
Look at it from the other direction. If you put in $20 but hit a royal you would be at $1000. Obviously $20 to $1000 is not a payback of 100.76 either.
Quote: bubI cannot find this information on his website, but is he calculating a certain amount of hands to achieve this 100.76 figure? Since I played for 90 minutes (and more than 90 hands), I did not hit anything above a four of a kind due to the low probabilities of the higher return combinations.
No, the figure is not derived through simulation of a lot of hands. It is the actual expectation.
The more hands you play, the more likely it becomes that your actual results are close to the expectation (when expressed as a percentage).
A few hundred hands is a very small sample, your results could be anywhere from way below expectation to way above expectation. On any given hand you could get a royal; that would add $1000 to your total return (you are playing quarters, right?) Until you are at the point where what $1000 would barely move your percent return, it's not reasonable to think that your return would be close to expectation -- while a single hand can still make it swing around, it hasn't stabilized yet.
Quote: AxiomOfChoice
A few hundred hands is a very small sample, your results could be anywhere from way below expectation to way above expectation. On any given hand you could get a royal; that would add $1000 to your total return (you are playing quarters, right?) Until you are at the point where what $1000 would barely move your percent return, it's not reasonable to think that your return would be close to expectation -- while a single hand can still make it swing around, it hasn't stabilized yet.
If he played on quarters for 90 minutes with $20 and getting nothing better than 4 of a kind, I need to know his secret...lol
Quote: tringlomaneIf he played on quarters for 90 minutes with $20 and getting nothing better than 4 of a kind, I need to know his secret...lol
Well he was checking a strategy chart for each hand. It would probably take you 5-10 minutes to play that many hands.
Slow play for cheap drinks!
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWell he was checking a strategy chart for each hand. It would probably take you 5-10 minutes to play that many hands.
Slow play for cheap drinks!
Yeah, it would probably take me about 10 min. for 90 hands, or more time. I tend to not play very fast unless I need to, even on slightly +EV games. I thought about him checking most hands when I typed up my response, but it sounds better if he would have some secret. ;)
Unless you were doing some other things while playing VP, like other things,Quote: bubSince I played for 90 minutes (and more than 90 hands), I did not hit anything above a four of a kind due to the low probabilities of the higher return combinations.
I would guess you played way more than 90 hands.
maybe not.
I play an easy 4 hands per minute
and about 360 hands per 90 minutes. (better)
from that here is a table of percentages and bankrolls.
Your chance of ruin even with $40 and trying to survive playing 360 hands is the odds on favorite.
| bankroll $ | 20 | 30 | 40 | 200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| play | 21.89 | 34.17 | 46.6 | 100 |
| ruin | 78.11 | 65.83 | 53.4 | 0 |
| profit | 18.56 | 25.24 | 29.58 | 34.56 |
| loss | 81.15 | 74.27 | 69.77 | 64.61 |
| even | 0.29 | 0.49 | 0.65 | 0.83 |
even with a $200 bankroll and playing for 360 hands,
you still have less than a 35% chance of showing a profit after that many hands played.
You have about a 55% chance of losing each hand you play.
You are not a favorite to win any one hand
So you are playing a VP game as an underdog
and of course,
All Dogs Go to Heaven
Sally
Video Poker for Winners
4 hands a min? that would be horribly slow.Quote: mustangsallyUnless you were doing some other things while playing VP, like other things,
I would guess you played way more than 90 hands.
maybe not.
I play an easy 4 hands per minute
and about 360 per hour.
from that here is a table of percentages and bankrolls.
Your chance of ruin even with $40 and trying to survive playing 360 hands is the odds on favorite.
bankroll $ 20 30 40 200 play 21.89 34.17 46.6 100 ruin 78.11 65.83 53.4 0 profit 18.56 25.24 29.58 34.56 loss 81.15 74.27 69.77 64.61 even 0.29 0.49 0.65 0.83
even with a $200 bankroll and playing for 360 hands,
you still have less than a 35% chance of showing a profit after that many hands played.
You have about a 55% chance of losing each hand you play.
You are not a favorite to win any one hand
So you are playing a VP game as an underdog
and of course,
All Dogs Go to Heaven
Sally
Video Poker for Winners
Quote: AxelWolf4 hands a min? that would be horribly slow.
OP printed out the wizard's strategy and brought it to the casino. If he is double checking a lot, it could happen. And 360/hr is 6 hands a min, sally. ;)
Quote: bubLol yea I have a whole packet printed out from Wizard of Odds with each video poker game on it to where I check for each hand. Casino does not care one bit...cause im still losing ;)
Practicing at home using this may be faster though.
https://wizardofodds.com/play/video-poker/
The default deuces wild game is "full pay", and you can set it to warn you if you are making an incorrect play.
Never say they don't care, this is the the wrong attitude to have. They don't care, until they do. Its best not to be blatant about it. Winning or losing is not the only factor.Quote: bubLol yea I have a whole packet printed out from Wizard of Odds with each video poker game on it to where I check for each hand. Casino does not care one bit...cause im still losing ;)
