Nareed
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
• Posts: 11413
May 20th, 2014 at 8:26:52 AM permalink
I was playing Deuces Wild with Dream Card online (for free) when I noticed something puzzling:

On having a pair, say of threes and a dream card, the machine made it a deuce. With higher pairs, the amchine opted for a natural three fo a kind. Like this

3h, 3c, 6d, 8c, Dream Card deuce

vs

9h, 9c, 3d, Js, Dream card 9s

This was ina five play game

Is there any difference in possible outcomes?

Not knowing the math, and being rather terrible at math anyway, it seems to me the two types are equivalent.
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TerribleTom
Joined: Feb 18, 2014
• Posts: 319
May 20th, 2014 at 10:19:08 AM permalink
Seems like the natural 3oak would give you the best chance at a 4/5oak, with 2 remaining natural cards (or does the dream card conversion eliminate on of them?) plus four available deuces.

I am very curious to hear a more detailed explanation.
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
• Posts: 5761
May 20th, 2014 at 10:26:35 AM permalink
Quote: TerribleTom

Seems like the natural 3oak would give you the best chance at a 4/5oak, with 2 remaining natural cards (or does the dream card conversion eliminate on of them?) plus four available deuces.

I am very curious to hear a more detailed explanation.

What?? No, the chances are the same. There is no difference between drawing a wild card and drawing a matching card when you are holding 3OAK. Either way, you have 5 outs (either 4 deuces and 1 natural card, or 3 deuces and 2 natural cards).

If the correct hold is 3OAK, it doesn't matter if it gives you a wild or a natural, so long as all full houses pay the same and a natural 4OAK pays the same as a wild one.
TerribleTom
Joined: Feb 18, 2014
• Posts: 319
May 20th, 2014 at 10:40:42 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

What?? No, the chances are the same. There is no difference between drawing a wild card and drawing a matching card when you are holding 3OAK. Either way, you have 5 outs (either 4 deuces and 1 natural card, or 3 deuces and 2 natural cards).

If the correct hold is 3OAK, it doesn't matter if it gives you a wild or a natural, so long as all full houses pay the same and a natural 4OAK pays the same as a wild one.

Does the dream card, when converted to a natural, leave you with two natural cards + 4 deuces still in the deck (that is, 6 cards that would make 4/5oak) or does the conversion effectively remove the third natural from the deck, leaving you with 5 cards that could make 4/5oak?

My question is about the behavior of the dream card.
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
• Posts: 5761
May 20th, 2014 at 10:44:35 AM permalink
Quote: TerribleTom

Does the dream card, when converted to a natural, leave you with two natural cards + 4 deuces still in the deck (that is, 6 cards that would make 4/5oak) or does the conversion effectively remove the third natural from the deck, leaving you with 5 cards that could make 4/5oak?

My question is about the behavior of the dream card.

The dream card removes the card from the deck. You can't get the same card twice in the same hand.

But, the answer would be the same either way -- you would always have the same number of outs, whether it gave you a wild or a natural.
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012