hook3670
hook3670
Joined: May 17, 2011
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April 18th, 2014 at 1:02:46 PM permalink
I don't know if this is possible, but can a percentage return be calculated on VP if you don't factor in the royal happening. The reason I ask is I go to a casino maybe six times a year and like to play VP. One of the reasons is that it is usually a low house edge game. However, a lot of that reduced edge factors on hitting a royal, which happens once every 40,000 hands give or take. I won't play 40,000 hands maybe over two years if then. Now I know with variance I could hit two in a row tomorrow, but I was wondering for someone who might only play 5,000 hands in a year and thus theoretically probably wont hit a royal what the odds would be.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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April 18th, 2014 at 1:14:03 PM permalink
Quote: hook3670

I don't know if this is possible, but can a percentage return be calculated on VP if you don't factor in the royal happening. The reason I ask is I go to a casino maybe six times a year and like to play VP. One of the reasons is that it is usually a low house edge game. However, a lot of that reduced edge factors on hitting a royal, which happens once every 40,000 hands give or take. I won't play 40,000 hands maybe over two years if then. Now I know with variance I could hit two in a row tomorrow, but I was wondering for someone who might only play 5,000 hands in a year and thus theoretically probably wont hit a royal what the odds would be.



Of course it's possible -- just subtract the return for the royal. I do this all the time. In most games the royal frequency is between 40,000 and 45,000 hands and it pays 800 bets (4000 coins) so it's worth 1.7% to 2% of the return.

If you look up the strategy for the game that you are playing on wizard of odds, it will give the return for each hand type, so you can just subtract it from the total to get this number.

But, don't misinterpret this number -- your EV per hand is the same regardless of how many hands you play. Also, 5000 hands per year is really low if you go 6 times per year -- do you not play for very long?
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
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April 18th, 2014 at 1:17:22 PM permalink
Quote: hook3670

I don't know if this is possible, but can a percentage return be calculated on VP if you don't factor in the royal happening. The reason I ask is I go to a casino maybe six times a year and like to play VP. One of the reasons is that it is usually a low house edge game. However, a lot of that reduced edge factors on hitting a royal, which happens once every 40,000 hands give or take. I won't play 40,000 hands maybe over two years if then. Now I know with variance I could hit two in a row tomorrow, but I was wondering for someone who might only play 5,000 hands in a year and thus theoretically probably wont hit a royal what the odds would be.



Yes, it's not that hard to do if you know the royal odds with optimum strategy. Take 9/6 Jacks, for instance. The royal frequency for a 4000 (800 for 1)coin royal is 40,391. Divide 800 by 40,391 to get 1.9804%. Then subtract 1.9804% from the payback of 99.5439% to get 97.5635%. So your expected loss rate would be 2.4364% without the royal.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
hook3670
hook3670
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April 18th, 2014 at 1:48:30 PM permalink
I play a decent amount, but I also mix in table games along with dinner, shows, etc... It might be a bit more now that I think about but 40,000 hands in two years is what I would play at best maybe closer to 2-3 years. So even if I wont play say 40,000 hands in a year would I still consider the 9/6 JOB game to return 99.54%?
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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April 18th, 2014 at 2:05:44 PM permalink
Quote: hook3670

I play a decent amount, but I also mix in table games along with dinner, shows, etc... It might be a bit more now that I think about but 40,000 hands in two years is what I would play at best maybe closer to 2-3 years. So even if I wont play say 40,000 hands in a year would I still consider the 9/6 JOB game to return 99.54%?



Yes. The percent return is the same regardless of how many hands you play.

You are talking about variance, I think. It's worth paying attention to, but don't misinterpret it.

I generally refer to the amount that you are describing as what I can "expect to lose between royals". But even "expect" is used in the mathematical sense, which is a little different from the plain English sense.

What game do you play? In a game like JoB, the royal is really the main thing that affects your variance (4OAK is important for individual sessions, but tends to get smoothed out over several thousand hands). But, if you are playing something like DDB or TDB, those big 4OAK+kicker hands are important -- even more so than the royals!

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