Dice Fever video poker
What I'm not sure of, now that I get home and think about the game, is whether the player gets a second roll of the dice if he holds all five cards. This would clearly depress the odds and change the strategy. For now, in the interests of laziness, I'm assuming the player does get a second throw of the dice if he holds all five cards. I also ignored the rule about a maximum of 100 free games, which would have a very negligible effect. Frankly, I've always wondered why they throw that rule in there anyway.
Based on some quick math on 9-5 Jacks or Better (return of 0.984498), I get a six-coin return of 0.987874. The return on the sixth coin only is 1.004753.
Some miscellaneous figures:
Probability bonus 0.012631
Expected final free games 5.337075
Re-triggers 0.067415
Average base bonus = 15.763021 (before considering that some wins pay 5x)
5x on re-trigger = 0.132740
5x pm dealt royal = 0.012977
Total average bonus = 15.908737
Bonus return 0.200951
The questions for the forum are:
1. Do you know if the player gets a re-throw of the dice if he holds all five cards on the deal?
2. What do you get for the return of 9-5 Jacks with six coins bet?
3. There is a similar game called Atomic Fever. I'll write about that later, but for now, does anyone know the probability of an atom being highlighted?
Somebody is sure to ask if the dice are fair. Let me preempt that discussion that debate, hopefully, by saying there is a Nevada Gaming regulation, which I'm sure ME can quote, that says that video representations of cards and dice must be fair and according to the natural odds in a live game.
Quote: WizardWhat I'm not sure of, now that I get home and think about the game, is whether the player gets a second roll of the dice if he holds all five cards.
I would assume so. A 0-card draw is still a draw (you hit the "draw"). And, for the dealt-top-line, you get the 2nd roll (although it doesn't show it).
Quote:I also ignored the rule about a maximum of 100 free games, which would have a very negligible effect. Frankly, I've always wondered why they throw that rule in there anyway.
Isn't there some rule that every game must have a maximum payout? (Or, isn't it a consequence of some other rule that the casino must have cash on hand to pay off a bet?)
Anyway, this sounds like fun. I'd play it if the pay table was decent.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIsn't there some rule that every game must have a maximum payout? (Or, isn't it a consequence of some other rule that the casino must have cash on hand to pay off a bet?)
There is a rule that the probability of the maximum win is at least p. I'm always forgetting what p is, but something like one in 200 million. ME probably knows.
I've never heard a regulation in Nevada on a maximum win, although other smaller markets often have such a requirement.
When it comes to bonuses, I think the regulation on the probability of the maximum win is per individual event, not the sum of the whole bonus. In the case of a max bonus win, it would be 100 free games with a dealt royal on each one, plus lots of Yahtzees along the way to get to 100 free games. The probability of that would be on the magnitude of like winning the Powerball lottery several times in a row, at least.
| Initial Dice Held | Combinations | Deal Probability | Probability Yahtzee on Draw | Total Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 720 | 0.092593 | 0.000772 | 0.000071 |
| 2 | 5400 | 0.694444 | 0.004630 | 0.003215 |
| 3 | 1500 | 0.192901 | 0.027778 | 0.005358 |
| 4 | 150 | 0.019290 | 0.166667 | 0.003215 |
| 5 | 6 | 0.000772 | 1.000000 | 0.000772 |
| Total | 7776 | 1.000000 | 0.012631 |
Quote: WizardThere is a rule that the probability of the maximum win is at least p. I'm always forgetting what p is, but something like one in 200 million. ME probably knows.
I've never heard a regulation in Nevada on a maximum win, although other smaller markets often have such a requirement.
When it comes to bonuses, I think the regulation on the probability of the maximum win is per individual event, not the sum of the whole bonus. In the case of a max bonus win, it would be 100 free games with a dealt royal on each one, plus lots of Yahtzees along the way to get to 100 free games. The probability of that would be on the magnitude of like winning the Powerball lottery several times in a row, at least.
Well, if there wasn't a max, what happens if I'm in some small bar and I hit my one-in-a-lot shot and win more money than they have?
I'm not saying that there is a constant max win (eg, no wins over $1,000,000,000, or anything like that) but I'm saying that if the establishment has to be able to pay my for any win I get, then it follows that there has to be a max win in that establishment.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWell, if there wasn't a max, what happens if I'm in some small bar and I hit my one-in-a-lot shot and win more money than they have?
I'm not saying that there is a constant max win (eg, no wins over $1,000,000,000, or anything like that) but I'm saying that if the establishment has to be able to pay my for any win I get, then it follows that there has to be a max win in that establishment.
I don't know all the details, but these bars have some kind of profit sharing arrangement with a much larger slot route company that provides the slots. For example, at the bar I was at today I think was connected to Terrible's. I'm not sure how they split up the revenue, but would expect that the bar can't get more than so deep in the hole.
Quote: WizardThere is a rule that the probability of the maximum win is at least p. I'm always forgetting what p is, but something like one in 200 million. ME probably knows.
Also, from a previous thread, I think that ME said that that only applied to advertised wins. Eg, if it said "win up to a billion dollars!" then you had to have a 1 in whatever chance of winning that prize.
In this case the max win is 100 free games, all dealt royal flushes (paid 5x4000 = 20,000 coins for a total of 2,000,000 coins) + a royal on your main game = 2,004,000 coins won).
Obviously the odds of that are lower than one in 200 million (or whatever) but the law prevents them from advertising "win up to 2,004,000 coins!!!" on the machine.
At least, that's my understanding of what I remember ME saying. There are many opportunities for me to be wrong here :)
Quote: WizardI don't know all the details, but these bars have some kind of profit sharing arrangement with a much larger slot route company that provides the slots. For example, at the bar I was at today I think was connected to Terrible's. I'm not sure how they split up the revenue, but would expect that the bar can't get more than so deep in the hole.
In any case, the money supply is only so large, so there still needs to be a max win :)
Quote:Nevada Gaming Commission and State Gaming Control Board Regulation 14.040(2)(b):
For gaming devices that are representative of live gambling games, the mathematical probability of a symbol or other element appearing in a game outcome must be equal to the mathematical probability of that symbol or element occurring in the live gambling game.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIn any case, the money supply is only so large, so there still needs to be a max win :)
I've designed lots of slots for Internet casinos and never put a cap on max bonus spins. I often get asked about this hypothetical infinite re-spin winner who ends up winning an infinite amount of money.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIsn't there some rule that every game must have a maximum payout?
The only Nevada rule I can think of is, if the odds are 100,000,000-1 or greater, then the odds must be displayed on the machine.
Quote: ThatDonGuyUntil ME shows up, here's what you're looking for:
Quote:Nevada Gaming Commission and State Gaming Control Board Regulation 14.040(2)(b):
For gaming devices that are representative of live gambling games, the mathematical probability of a symbol or other element appearing in a game outcome must be equal to the mathematical probability of that symbol or element occurring in the live gambling game.
No, I think we are talking about something else.
That law is saying that the odds of the next card being the jack of spades has to be 1 / (however many cards are left).
We are talking about whether they are allowed to offer a game with a billion dollar prize that you have a 1 in a trillion chance of winning.
Quote: WizardThere is a rule that the probability of the maximum win is at least p. I'm always forgetting what p is, but something like one in 200 million. ME probably knows.
I've never heard a regulation in Nevada on a maximum win, although other smaller markets often have such a requirement.
When it comes to bonuses, I think the regulation on the probability of the maximum win is per individual event, not the sum of the whole bonus. In the case of a max bonus win, it would be 100 free games with a dealt royal on each one, plus lots of Yahtzees along the way to get to 100 free games. The probability of that would be on the magnitude of like winning the Powerball lottery several times in a row, at least.
Yeah, that is the impression I have always had. If it's not, then Ultimate X would be illegal in nearly every state. "p" for most states is 1 in 50 million. Nevada "p" can be anything, but any "p" less than 1 in 100 million, "p" must be written on the game's payglass.
For the max possible win on an Ultimate X round is roughly:
Dealt full house followed by a dealt royal flush is 3744*4/2598960^2 ~ 1 in 451 million.
"Roughly" because things like 2 pair/trips can be converted to full houses on every line too, but that's a lot more tedious math.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceQuote: ThatDonGuyUntil ME shows up, here's what you're looking for:
Quote:Nevada Gaming Commission and State Gaming Control Board Regulation 14.040(2)(b):
For gaming devices that are representative of live gambling games, the mathematical probability of a symbol or other element appearing in a game outcome must be equal to the mathematical probability of that symbol or element occurring in the live gambling game.
No, I think we are talking about something else.
That law is saying that the odds of the next card being the jack of spades has to be 1 / (however many cards are left).
We are talking about whether they are allowed to offer a game with a billion dollar prize that you have a 1 in a trillion chance of winning.
I was responding to this, from the first post in the thread:
Quote: WizardSomebody is sure to ask if the dice are fair. Let me preempt that discussion that debate, hopefully, by saying there is a Nevada Gaming regulation, which I'm sure ME can quote, that says that video representations of cards and dice must be fair and according to the natural odds in a live game.
I can't find any reference to a maximum payout in the Nevada gaming regulations. The closest I found was that if a payout is in excess of $5,000,000, it must be paid out in no more than 20 annual installments "or in such manner as approved by the commission upon application by the licensee." There are rules (Regulation 5.115(3)) concerning requiring a bond or some form of trust with a bank that would guarantee the full payout and (5.115(9)) how much the casino has to have on hand; unless it can get a waiver on the 20-year rule, it looks like it has to have 5% of the prize amount on hand pretty much at all times, which means that if somebody hits it and the prize is offered again, the casino needs 5% for the winner's next payment plus 5% for a future winner's first payment (that's a total of $100 million for a billion dollar prize) on hand.
Quote: ThatDonGuyI was responding to this, from the first post in the thread
Sorry, my mistake.
Quote:I can't find any reference to a maximum payout in the Nevada gaming regulations. The closest I found was that if a payout is in excess of $5,000,000, it must be paid out in no more than 20 annual installments "or in such manner as approved by the commission upon application by the licensee." There are rules (Regulation 5.115(3)) concerning requiring a bond or some form of trust with a bank that would guarantee the full payout and (5.115(9)) how much the casino has to have on hand; unless it can get a waiver on the 20-year rule, it looks like it has to have 5% of the prize amount on hand pretty much at all times, which means that if somebody hits it and the prize is offered again, the casino needs 5% for the winner's next payment plus 5% for a future winner's first payment (that's a total of $100 million for a billion dollar prize) on hand.
Again. I wasn't claiming that there was a fixed maximum. But, if there is a rule that they must have 5% of the cash on hand, then that would seem to imply that they can't offer a prize of more than 20x their cash on hand (which implies that the game must have a max win, although that max could be different at each casino)
The rule for the bond would form a similar implication.
In other words, I'm saying that the rule is implicit, not explicit.
Quote: WizardI don't know all the details, but these bars have some kind of profit sharing arrangement with a much larger slot route company that provides the slots. For example, at the bar I was at today I think was connected to Terrible's. I'm not sure how they split up the revenue, but would expect that the bar can't get more than so deep in the hole.
I am very familiar with the route slot business in Nevada. Most bars do not own their own machines, they sign a contract with a route operator that provides the machines. Typical splits are 75/25, 80/20, 85/15 and 90/10 where the bar owner gets the majority of the win. Generally if a patron hits a big jackpot the slot route company pays it and then prorates the amount over the next n weeks to the bar owner by taking a portion of their split until it is repaid.
Quote: tringlomaneYeah, that is the impression I have always had. If it's not, then Ultimate X would be illegal in nearly every state. "p" for most states is 1 in 50 million. Nevada "p" can be anything, but any "p" less than 1 in 100 million, "p" must be written on the game's payglass.
For the max possible win on an Ultimate X round is roughly:
Dealt full house followed by a dealt royal flush is 3744*4/2598960^2 ~ 1 in 451 million.
"Roughly" because things like 2 pair/trips can be converted to full houses on every line too, but that's a lot more tedious math.
In Ultimate X the top awards is calculated by the odds of hitting the top paytable award (Royal Flush) by the odds of hitting the max multiplier (12x or 13x). Each hand is factored separately so the top award odds isn't getting a dealt Royal with all 13x's.
Quote: DRichIn Ultimate X the top awards is calculated by the odds of hitting the top paytable award (Royal Flush) by the odds of hitting the max multiplier (12x or 13x). Each hand is factored separately so the top award odds isn't getting a dealt Royal with all 13x's.
Right, which makes it legal in most casino states that definitely aren't named West Virginia (sorry Mission). :( Hitting a royal with a full house beforehand (12X) for just any one hand is closer to 1 in 4.5 million. I'd happily take just that hit. :D
Quote: WizardI've designed lots of slots for Internet casinos and never put a cap on max bonus spins. I often get asked about this hypothetical infinite re-spin winner who ends up winning an infinite amount of money.
Obviously, the game makers and casinos would want to ensure that all reg's are being followed. However, it seems to me that when you get some sales guy from IGT pitching a game to some casino exec's, and a question like the one above comes up, it would result in the game programmers shaking their heads while they code some fail safe into the bonus to appease those who are not-so-great-at-math...
