AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
• Posts: 5761
January 11th, 2014 at 11:44:11 PM permalink
Ok, so, say I find a progressive VP game. I can look at the base paytable, and go to the Wizard's site, and figure out what the base pay is. Then I can look at the probabilities of hitting the progressive hand(s) (also conveniently on the Wizard's pay charts) and figure out how much the additional money in the meter is worth (as a percent of total bet) and see if it adds up to at least 100%.

Everything up to this point is easy. I can do it in my head.

The problem is, if the base pay table of the game is bad (and the one that I'm looking at is), the game will only be playable when the progressive amount(s) is/are really high. This will mean that I won't be following the "basic" strategy any more, but, instead, making strategy variation(s) which will make those progressive payout(s) more likely. Doing this obviously adds to my EV (if it didn't, I wouldn't be making the strategy variations).

But, this means that my initial calculation of my EV is incorrect. It's an under-estimate, since it would be the EV if I was playing the "basic" strategy, with no variations. So, my question is... how much do these strategy variations generally raise your EV, and is it enough to be worth including in my calculations? One could argue that underestimating my EV might be a good thing, since it will be balanced out by any playing errors that I may make. And, if the extra EV from strategy variations was small, this would probably true. But, will the extra EV still be small if the meters are very high? For example, if you have a royal paying 3x its normal amount... would the strategy variations be worth enough that you would be underestimating your EV by too much if you didn't take them into account?

Also... is there a shortcut to figuring this out? I could definitely write a program to do a complete combinatorial analysis of the game with a specific paytable, and see what the EV is, but that is more work than I'm really willing to do.
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
• Posts: 6272
January 12th, 2014 at 12:15:40 AM permalink
They raise them enough in most cases where you would want to use the strategy changes.

If you have a smartphone, look at the progressive meter(s), go to the bathroom, use http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/calculator/ and you should be good to go! I said bathroom since it's technically illegal to do in most states.
larwiz1
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
• Posts: 58
January 12th, 2014 at 7:38:14 AM permalink
The wizard's calculator is a great thing to use if you don't have the software to look at the strategy changes.

As you progress the royal up, if you do not make the strategy changes, then your average incident of royal will remain in the 40K hands range for JOB. With the strategy changes you can drop the incidence of Royal down into the 33k or lower. An 8/5 JOB game with a 3X royal has an average incidence of royal in the 31K range.

There is so much available on the web for calculators now days that I am not sure it would be helpful to read a book by Kneeland "The Secret World of Video Poker Progressives", but it could be entertaining. I bought last year and enjoyed it.
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 14484
January 12th, 2014 at 10:21:05 AM permalink
I generally do not play slots. And I consider Video Poker a sub-set of slot machines, one with varying knowledge requirements and strategy employment options.

I know many casinos have these STARTS AT (some number) MUST HIT BY (some far higher number) Presently at ............. . I think these all related to Progressives so there is a bonus number that has a "must hit by" cap to it.

Are these progressive Video Poker slots or just ordinary progressive slots.?
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
• Posts: 5761
January 12th, 2014 at 10:33:49 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

They raise them enough in most cases where you would want to use the strategy changes.

If you have a smartphone, look at the progressive meter(s), go to the bathroom, use http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/calculator/ and you should be good to go! I said bathroom since it's technically illegal to do in most states.

Hmm... the calculator seems to have some issues.

For example, if I analyze 8/5 DDB with no increase for progressives, it gives a probability of 0.000025 for a royal (which matches the stand-alone charts that the wizard has). But if I raise the royal to 2000 units (from 800) it gives the probability for a royal as 0.000032, even for the 2nd table (which is supposed to be the table for basic strategy only; no exceptions).

This doesn't make sense. If you don't make any strategy exceptions, the probability of a royal shouldn't change.
larwiz1
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
• Posts: 58
January 12th, 2014 at 10:59:51 AM permalink
The basic strategy that is generated is the basic strategy for the game with a 10000 royal. It is not the normal 8/5 DDB basic strategy. The exceptions at the bottom are for this basic strategy. Note that the incidence of royal changed to 31661 playing this basic strategy.

I am not sure this is what you are hunting for. Here is a website that might have some relevance on playing a wrong strategy to a progressive. http://www.videopokerhelp.net/progressive_strat.htm
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
• Posts: 8277
January 12th, 2014 at 11:32:29 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

I generally do not play slots. And I consider Video Poker a sub-set of slot machines, one with varying knowledge requirements and strategy employment options.

I know many casinos have these STARTS AT (some number) MUST HIT BY (some far higher number) Presently at ............. . I think these all related to Progressives so there is a bonus number that has a "must hit by" cap to it.

Are these progressive Video Poker slots or just ordinary progressive slots.?

Can't be sure, but usually slots and never video Poker which I know. Usually they're guaranteed pieces of crap mainly because the meters are so slow almost to the point of not moving at all. People play them all day and they seem to only go up about \$5. If it wasn't for this, I would think they were all right.
I am a robot.
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 14484
January 12th, 2014 at 11:49:55 AM permalink
I will admit that these "Can hit anytime but must hit by SoManyDollars" signs do distract me and lure me to having improper thoughts such as playing slot machines, particuarly when its gets relatively "close".
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
• Posts: 5761
January 12th, 2014 at 12:50:19 PM permalink
I think Mission analyzed these "must hit by" slots in another thread. But this has nothing to do with progressive VP, so maybe the discussion should be split off? Equating slots to VP is like equating casino war to blackjack; they are not at all similar, despite using similar equipment.
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 19805
January 12th, 2014 at 12:56:57 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Ok, so, say I find a progressive VP game. I can look at the base paytable, and go to the Wizard's site, and figure out what the base pay is. Then I can look at the probabilities of hitting the progressive hand(s) (also conveniently on the Wizard's pay charts) and figure out how much the additional money in the meter is worth (as a percent of total bet) and see if it adds up to at least 100%.

Everything up to this point is easy. I can do it in my head.

The problem is, if the base pay table of the game is bad (and the one that I'm looking at is), the game will only be playable when the progressive amount(s) is/are really high. This will mean that I won't be following the "basic" strategy any more, but, instead, making strategy variation(s) which will make those progressive payout(s) more likely. Doing this obviously adds to my EV (if it didn't, I wouldn't be making the strategy variations).

But, this means that my initial calculation of my EV is incorrect. It's an under-estimate, since it would be the EV if I was playing the "basic" strategy, with no variations. So, my question is... how much do these strategy variations generally raise your EV, and is it enough to be worth including in my calculations? One could argue that underestimating my EV might be a good thing, since it will be balanced out by any playing errors that I may make. And, if the extra EV from strategy variations was small, this would probably true. But, will the extra EV still be small if the meters are very high? For example, if you have a royal paying 3x its normal amount... would the strategy variations be worth enough that you would be underestimating your EV by too much if you didn't take them into account?

Also... is there a shortcut to figuring this out? I could definitely write a program to do a complete combinatorial analysis of the game with a specific paytable, and see what the EV is, but that is more work than I'm really willing to do.

Depending on what you are playing You should not worry about this as much as some think. I'm not saying you should go all willy-nilly and careless.(you don't seem to be that kind of person, since you took the time to ask) Proceed with cation, but proceed. If the percentage is good enough the mistakes you would be probably making would not tun your play into a negative EV proposition, unless you were being totally foolish.

Since you seem to be referring to A RF progressive.
The changes will be somewhat obvious. And this should not effect the calculations to horribly. If you are working with a thin edge then I have nothing for you on that other then don't play thin edges.

As far as the calculations go on the game and meter amounts, why not get a simple program on your phone, head to the bathroom and run it?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪