100% Rebate VP Strategy - I don't get it
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https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/loss-rebate/
But I simply do not understand. Maybe someone can help me and find the "knot" in my brain.
Let's assume 100$ Loss rebate, you are allowed to play any video poker machine.
What I thought I learned about these promotions is:
- define your winning goal
- goal reached, stop playing
- 100$ lost stop playing
- try to reach your goal in a minimum hands played.
Am I basically correct on this?
So I would go and find a 20$ VP machine (20x5=100). I will not find such a machine, so I play 10$ VP (50$ per hand).
Again: Correct?
In the Wizard's example I would play 25-15-9 Deuces Wild (just because i know DW best).
So where do I find my optimal strategy in Wizard's tables?
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/deuces-wild/full-pay/optimal/
Quote: terapinedBelow link to the Wiz's 2 wild optimal strategy.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/deuces-wild/full-pay/optimal/
I was not precise. This is the strategy I learned. I was talking about the optimal strategy to exploit the 100% Rebate.
Quote: wernerwI was not precise. This is the strategy I learned. I was talking about the optimal strategy to exploit the 100% Rebate.
I was at treasure island outside Biloxi a couple years ago.
They had a 100.00 loss rebate program. Lose 100 in 24 hrs, come back next day and will be comped 100 play dollars.
Played a ton of video poker losing the 100.
Came back next day and they loaded 100 play dollars on my players card.
Played the play 100 down to 0 on video poker and had about 68 real bucks on the machine. cashed out and hit the buffer.
In the end I lost 32 dollars but it was a great deal because I got to play a ton of video poker trying to hit a royal.
Optimal strategy is to hope you don't lose. Hopefully you are a winner and don't qualify for the rebate.
If you do qualify for the rebate, depends on what games they allow you to play on the rebated money.
The tables that are on there are based on your bankroll, such as a bankroll for 25 units, 50 units or 100 units. There is no chart on there for 2 units, which is what $100 is if you are making a bet of $50. I think the Optimal Strategy for that would probably be to stop at any profit whatsoever.
If you change your units to $1.25 (5 Credits at $0.25) then you will have 80 units and maybe take the mean of the 50 unit and 100 unit charts, close enough. It will start to make sense, then.
Quote: tournamentkingAll a loss-rebate means is that with X amount, you get two chances at making a profit. I personally do not believe vp players have the ability, by & large, to up and quit at any win or even loss goal. Those poker machines do bring the most discipline-hardened gamblers to their knees. Slots have an advantage in that dept. They are easy to leave for the day because they are so very boring to play.
If you change every occurrence of, 'Video poker,' or, 'Poker,' with the word, 'Slots,' above, then I'd agree wholeheartedly.
It's subjective, of course, so neither of us is necessarily right. However, most of my advantage plays are on Penny slots, which are all about positive reinforcement with respect to small wins. The only thing Video Poker has reinforced, for me, is getting my face beaten in almost every time I have ever played it...and yes...I know Optimal JoB and DW strategy!
Slot play is not very glamorous or fun and you lose 8 out of every ten times you play. But the planning and overcoming the struggle with playing them is what interests me. Plus the jackpots are up there when they hit. But everyone has their own tastes. I just think the poker machines are overly addictive if you allow yourself to get drawn into them.
Quote: tournamentkingThat's why I only play vp for fun. I can't imagine many players win on a consistent basis on that game. One of the two people I actually had thought was a winning player was B. Dancer, until he started imploding with his columns about why he split from his wife, then ripping off cheap breakfasts from a fleabag motel.
Slot play is not very glamorous or fun and you lose 8 out of every ten times you play. But the planning and overcoming the struggle with playing them is what interests me. Plus the jackpots are up there when they hit. But everyone has their own tastes. I just think the poker machines are overly addictive if you allow yourself to get drawn into them.
It isn't an easy living, but it can be done with VP. As for Dancer, I don't care for his ditching of his wife because she couldn't handle casino smoke anymore. A terribly lame excuse to end a marriage, but it is his living I guess...
The more you say, the more I realized you have NO clue about real advantage play. Your statements are at best dangerous to new players. In reality I should promote this type of talk However I have simpathy for people who avoid Video poker for slots unless the EV is higher or they have a specific reason to do so such as VP not included or a banking situation. I admit slots can be fun entertainment in smalk doses.Quote: tournamentkingThere's a fascination with playing videopoker in these loss rebates, and it's always a complicated scenario. So why bother, and why not go at the slots instead. All a loss-rebate means is that with X amount, you get two chances at making a profit. I personally do not believe vp players have the ability, by & large, to up and quit at any win or even loss goal. Those poker machines do bring the most discipline-hardened gamblers to their knees. Slots have an advantage in that dept. They are easy to leave for the day because they are so very boring to play.
Quote: AxelWolfThe more you say, the more I realized you have NO clue about real advantage play. Your statements are at best dangerous to new players. In reality I should promote this type of talk However I have simpathy for people who avoid Video poker for slots unless the EV is higher or they have a specific reason to do so such as VP not included or a banking situation. I admit slots can be fun entertainment in smalk doses.
I am an advantage SLOTS player, which means you have no idea how I do what I do, and what I mean by it. So instead of making a statement about me like above, the astute reader would have ASKED in order to learn.
Slots ap is not like vp ap. Those people (and I disagree that vp ap's make any sustainable living at all from that game) talk a big game and constantly quote statistics from books and theories galore. But where is the proof, other than the most famous vp player ever showing us that he not only can't afford good digs or a cheap restaurant when on the road, but that thing with his ex where he chose vp over a spouse's helping hand tells a tale of him having a great big problem.
A slots ap does not calculate edge because there either never is one, or the hold % is unknown so it's a moot point. What a slots ap does is study, patrol, study, lurk, take good notes, and just hang around a developing good play until you get some sort of read on the performance. One thing we do get is far greater comp value, even though it can't be calculated in until after the play is over, win or lose.
Quote: tournamentkingA slots ap does not calculate edge because there either never is one, or the hold % is unknown so it's a moot point. What a slots ap does is study, patrol, study, lurk, take good notes, and just hang around a developing good play until you get some sort of read on the performance. One thing we do get is far greater comp value, even though it can't be calculated in until after the play is over, win or lose.
Best tell MickeyCrimm that... pretty sure he has worked out the Advantage % on some of his plays.
Quote: Mission146Wernerw,
The tables that are on there are based on your bankroll, such as a bankroll for 25 units, 50 units or 100 units. There is no chart on there for 2 units, which is what $100 is if you are making a bet of $50. I think the Optimal Strategy for that would probably be to stop at any profit whatsoever.
If you change your units to $1.25 (5 Credits at $0.25) then you will have 80 units and maybe take the mean of the 50 unit and 100 unit charts, close enough. It will start to make sense, then.
OK, I get it.
But then my question is still:
For a 100$ Loss Rebate, isn't it optimal strategy to play the 10$ VP machines? Or is it better to play it on 25c or even 5c machines?
And as you say, setting the win goal very low, especially if you can come back the next day and try again?
Quote: wernerwOK, I get it.
But then my question is still:
For a 100$ Loss Rebate, isn't it optimal strategy to play the 10$ VP machines? Or is it better to play it on 25c or even 5c machines?
And as you say, setting the win goal very low, especially if you can come back the next day and try again?
It's simply a question of Variance, so you want to maximize the Variance if you are playing a negative expectation game. However, the rebate makes it positive expectation, so you might not want that Variance. You will notice that, the fewer the credits you are playing, the greater the Optimal Win Goal in relation to the number of credits that you risk losing. For instance, on 9/6 JoB, your Optimal win goal is 6.8 times on a 25 Credit bankroll. Now, if you want to increase a two unit bankroll by 6.8 or more times, then you'd need to hit a FH (or better) on 9/6 JoB. The probability of you hitting that before losing your two-unit bankroll will be extremely low.
In this sense, you still have the advantage with the loss rebate, it's just a question of whether or not you are at all likely to actually realize that advantage.
It's up to you whether you want to approach it with 80 units ($0.25 machine) or 400 units ($0.05 machine, one hand, $0.25 bet). Check out the charts and go with whatever you deem to have the best probability of happening. Perhaps wanting to play longer is a consideration. If you are a professional advantage player, then you'd probably want to get after it with a larger unit size to maximize profit per hour. However, as relates the Optimal Win Goal, you'll see that the probability of success for each stop point increases as the credits increase, so if probability of success is a big consideration, there's that.
If you want to go back the next day and try for the big win, that's fine, of course. I believe most people try to grind as much of that Free Play Rebate as possible into actual return by playing something with a small Max bet, $0.05 VP, something like that. You want to reduce Variance in order to grind back as much of your money as possible, unless your only real interest is a big win.
Essentially, based on ER of the game and getting back $100 if you lose...Say you are grinding that back at a theoretical ER of 99%, basically, you are hoping to get back $99 and to have lost a theoretical $1.00 for getting to take a $100 shot.
Quote: thecesspitBest tell MickeyCrimm that... pretty sure he has worked out the Advantage % on some of his plays.
That's if you believe what the casino claims its hold is. Some players use posted averages for the location. None of that, in my opinion, is optimal enough to be able to make a serious, informed decision. Other's opinions vary. But when you think about the precise calculations required in order for the vp players to go after a certain play, being just slightly off can and does make a difference. You see teams all the time at the larger progressive slots. They lose a lot more often than they win, whereas the vp teams do just the opposite. In my case, I actually look for and want to see the teams swarm down on progressive slots. The work is tedious and sometimes sleep-depriving when it happens, but the info gleaned from sitting on the sidelines is very valuable. To me, this method is far more informative for what I'm trying to accomplish.
In fact I did ask this already two times in a different thread perhaps you missed it, I even asked again for you to respond to my statement.Quote: tournamentkingI am an advantage SLOTS player, which means you have no idea how I do what I do, and what I mean by it. So instead of making a statement about me like above, the astute reader would have ASKED in order to learn.
Quote: AxelWolfTking, I would love to know the name of some of the slots that you have APed. I just get this feeling( mainly from your comments on Slot tournaments)to put it nice, that what your doing and people like Mickey are doing are quite different.
You said "I am an advantage SLOTS player" then in the second paragraph you say, "A slots ap does not calculate edge because there either never is one, or the hold % is unknown so it's a moot point." Case closedQuote: AxelWolfI guess I will just say it. Something doesn't ring true about you. I may be a bit delirious perhaps my blood sugar is low, time for some frosted flakes.
Your slot play, I'm not buying it. I would gladly be proven wrong, Perhaps you can elaborate on your advantage slot play I'm very interested, I'm sure your a gr8 slot player. I'll leave it at that for now, I don't to be a pesky varmint to you.
To be clear I really don't think You are one of my long lost friends, You just remind me of them, is all.
I have never read an AP book in my life, nor do I own one, excluding Texas hold'em. If I had Mickey Crimm's Writing talant I could very well write one. I wont go in to a lot of details I'm not into educating people like you. I spent a lot of effort in the 90's trying to keep information away from the internet, I feel conflicted talking about AP at all, even tho I have had a quite colorful history.Quote: tournamentkingtalk a big game and constantly quote statistics from books and theories galore.
If you make it worth my effort, lets say for a large wager, I can gladly show you proof with one or more thing such as photos, tax forms, accounting, casino statements, mathematically and via a real money demonstration. I will put my money where my mouth is, Will you? some gr8players talk talk talk talk. Yet never show their faces.Quote: tournamentkingBut where is the proof
Not proof, but a good indication of APs making more money on VP over slots. Is... they rarely toss people out of casinos for playing Slots only. VP players constantly get 86ed out of casinos for AP. AAMOF, My first email address before casinos were using them for promos, was something like got86ed@aol.com.
You can disagree all you want, however you would be wrong again. Since this is Long over and I have talked about it before, I will give you an example. for nearly a decade casinos throughout NV and other places had A game called Flush Attack. The game was worth 133% during if played correctly. Lot's of smart players Were able to make MORE then $30 an HR With as little risk as possible $700 bankroll was over kill . 100K years were not unheard of, several things like this followed. I started with less then $300 moved on to other AP things and have never worked a real job again.Quote: tournamentking(and I disagree that VP ap's make any sustainable living at all from that game)
Let me be sure you understand this, I have nothing against Slot AP, I'm the first to jump on someone who claims slots can't be beaten. There are a few occasions I have in different threads. I have had many low risk high EV SLOT advantage plays,Keno plays, roulette, craps, etc. Hell.... I had a few plays on Sigma Derby. Main point **I just don't think you have any clue what your talking about, when it comes to Slots.** In between your comment and this post, I played a NON VP AP with very low risk and high return. I would be willing to send the information to a administrator, to confirm what I'm saying is true. Put something on the line.
To most of what you said in your comment to me, this link sums up my feelings to a T.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfYJsQAhl0
I love the person who wrote this line, best thing I have ever heard. My next tag line
Why the rant from me? I can only equate it to how someone feels after them bashing your favorite sports team or your hometown, while they are giving miss information, and have never been there.
Quote: tournamentkingThat's if you believe what the casino claims its hold is.
Some players use posted averages for the location. None of that, in my opinion, is optimal enough to be able to make a serious, informed decision. Other's opinions vary. But when you think about the precise calculations required in order for the vp players to go after a certain play, being just slightly off can and does make a differenceQuote: AxelWolf* On VP It Is Often Calculated With A Computer So believing has nothing to do with it
. You see teams all the time at the larger progressive slots. They lose a lot more often than they win, whereas the vp teams do just the opposite.[Quote: AxelWolf* Your much more likely to be off when calculating slots, Since you are almost always estimating everything unless you have par sheets even then you have to know what particular setting that machine is set at. VP is easy to get an exact calculation. Its like your ass-backwards on everything you say
In my case, I actually look for and want to seeQuote: AxelWolf] *So your saying VP players play low prog's and win big? you seem to be contradicting yourself
the teams swarm down on progressive slots. The work is tedious and sometimes sleep-depriving when it happens, but the info gleaned from sitting on the sidelines is very valuable.Quote: AxelWolfthis should say, you look for what you want to see
To me, this method is far more informative for what I'm trying to accomplish.Quote: AxelWolfand what information might that be?
Quote: AxelWolfI think the only thing you are accomplishing is sitting on the sidelines with sleep deprivation
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
If there's proof that anyone wins, statements, tax records, oaths etc. aren't going to cut it. They would help, but proof they are not. Anything can be manipulated, altered, etc. Maybe that's why no ap or any other gambler has ever just come out and proven they've won anything. Bet or no bet.
I'm not into that anyway. Forums are for opinions and we've both had ours. In the meantime, you saw where I posted I had a BIG bet on the Pats last week when they were down 24-0. Then I said I put $800 on the Lions on Thanksgiving. Well, I put a dime on the Chiefs this week and I urge you to do the same. Inever bet more than one game a day because of the amount of time I put into the study. Just as in being a slots ap, which I am, it is not the math that delivers or dictates.
Quote: tournamentkingWell, I put a dime on the Chiefs this week and I urge you to do the same. Inever bet more than one game a day because of the amount of time I put into the study.
That's interesting you picked KC.
We have a football season long contest going on here and the most lopsided pick this week against the spread is Denver 20 picks vs KC 2 picks.
Looking forward to the game.
Good luck tournamentking.
