CynicalRealist
Joined: Apr 28, 2013
• Posts: 2
April 28th, 2013 at 8:09:36 PM permalink
I was having an issue trying to figure out the EV of a game that was introduced last year in the local casino on the Game Kings.

Essentially a Double Double Bonus payback schedule with 9/5 on Full House/Flush. The extra payout hands are a "Royal" Straight in all Red or all Black pays 40 coins per coin played.

So a Ac Ks Qs Jc Ts would qualify, as would a Ah Kh Qd Jd Td.

Given the current software for VP I couldn't figure how to build that payout in. I could break down individual holds, and figure out some different holds that would be affected.

Any idea on the EV for this game? I assume it's under 99% but don't know. Have not seen it listed on Wizard of Odds website.

Double Double Bonus Red & Black

RF 800
SFL 50
4K Aces 160 / 400 (w kicker 2-4)
4K 2-4's 80 / 160 (w kicker A-4)
4K 5-K's 50
Royal Straight all Red or all Black 40
FH 9
FL 5
Str 4
3K 3
2P 1
JB 1
JB
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 2089
April 28th, 2013 at 8:27:25 PM permalink
I calculate a return of 98.5708% and a variance of 41.823717.

I'm afraid you're on your own for the strategy, except for the obvious: with a dealt red or black "Royal Straight" that has 4 to a royal, holding all 5 cards is better than trying for the royal. I don't know if you would hold something like KQJ10 instead of KQJ or KQJ instead of KQ.
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
• Posts: 6263
April 28th, 2013 at 8:46:25 PM permalink
I can almost guarantee it's under 99% by guesstimation.

Unfortunately, to be totally accurate, you have to be able to modify video poker calculator code for this (calling JB). But with some rough assumptions we can get close to the right answer.

If 20% of all straights are AKQJT (educated guess), then the return of the game would roughly be 98.17% +/- 0.1% I would think.

The probability of a colored AKQJT is 2^5/4^5 = 0.03125.

This leads to an average AKQJT return of:
(40)(0.03125) + 4(0.96875) = 5.125

If 20% of all straights are AKQJT, this leads to a straight return of:
(0.2)(5.125) + (0.8)(4) = 4.225

Throwing this number into one of JB's awesome calculators leads to a return of 98.17%, a 0.30% improvement of the 9/5 DDB game. This is in line with return increases for many games with "twists".
JB
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 2089
April 28th, 2013 at 9:00:19 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

to be totally accurate, you have to be able to modify video poker calculator code for this (calling JB)

Sorry, I was busy traveling through time. I'll get to it half an hour ago. :)
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
• Posts: 6263
April 28th, 2013 at 9:04:55 PM permalink
Damn my estimate was quite off. 4 to a colored AKQJT is definitely better than 2 to a Royal obv and that will come up a reasonable amount of the time. 4 to a colored AKQJT is also better than 3 to a Royal since you can think of this draw as an open-ended 4 to a Straight Flush draw that pays 40 instead of the usual 50.

Quote: JB

Sorry, I was busy traveling through time. I'll get to it half an hour ago. :)

Yeah I am apparently quite slow...lol

Also a nice twist on the game to bring its paytable in line with the other big 9/6 full-pay games: JoB and Bonus Poker Deluxe. Hopefully offering 9/6 is an option.
JB
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 2089
April 28th, 2013 at 9:34:05 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Also a nice twist on the game to bring its paytable in line with the other big 9/6 full-pay games: JoB and Bonus Poker Deluxe. Hopefully offering 9/6 is an option.

It probably is. The 9/6 paytable returns 99.666%.

Double Double Bonus Plus is also a nice twist on DDB, with the extra payline being for Four 5s through Ks with an Ace. It doesn't return as much as Red & Black but the strategy is much closer to regular DDB.

I just added DDB Plus and DDB Red & Black to the video poker calculator. The R&B game takes longer to analyze because the suits matter more.
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
• Posts: 6263
April 28th, 2013 at 9:59:10 PM permalink
Thanks JB!!

And looking at your detailed breakdown of the hand paybacks, I am getting a better idea why my estimate is wrong. Because we are holding 3 high cards with a Red/Black straight possibility over an Ace, and 2 to a Royal I think. Even things like Red/Black AQT might beat Ace only and possibly AQ suited. Also probably holding Red/Black Ace Face over an Ace only as well. I'm obviously just guessing though. This game will definitely be tougher than regular DDB and DDB Plus.
Wizard

Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 22030
April 8th, 2016 at 4:48:11 PM permalink

Sorry to wake up an old thread but I saw this game on Tuesday at the Hard Rock. Never even heard of it before so I'm pleased to see JB already analyzed it.

Over at the Hard Rock they have the 7/5 pay table.

Please check out my new page on Red Black Double Double Bonus Poker. As always, I welcome all comments, questions, and especially corrections.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
• Posts: 11933
April 8th, 2016 at 5:02:23 PM permalink
In your tables, you have "4 5-K" where the colored straights shoulder be.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Wizard

Joined: Oct 14, 2009