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FastEddie
FastEddie
Joined: Aug 29, 2021
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September 8th, 2021 at 7:14:57 PM permalink
Just wondering what anybody thinks of fixed odds betting at race tracks. Many are saying it will save horse racing. I do know I once bet a trotter at 10 To 1 a minute to post. Went off 5 to 1 with one last flash to come Paid $4.40.
extreme example but often even waiting till last minute. 2 to 1 shot will pay $3.60 or less
monmouth was supposed to have fixed odds when legislation passed but it never happened
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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September 8th, 2021 at 9:00:01 PM permalink
One good reason to gamble is value

You can play craps all weekend at $25 plus 3/4/5 odds and have an average loss of only $50. This comes with a a standard deviation of $3000, which is what makes it fun

Where else can you get a weekend of entertainment for $50 (drinks included, and possibly meals too)
Itís all about making that GTA
Mission146
Mission146 
Joined: May 15, 2012
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September 8th, 2021 at 9:12:07 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

One good reason to gamble is value

You can play craps all weekend at $25 plus 3/4/5 odds and have an average loss of only $50. This comes with a a standard deviation of $3000, which is what makes it fun

Where else can you get a weekend of entertainment for $50 (drinks included, and possibly meals too)

  • link to original post



    If Iím on the right side of the bell curve, nowhere.

    If Iím 0.2 SD or more on the left side of the bell curve, just about anywhere.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    Ace2
    Ace2
    Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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    September 8th, 2021 at 9:24:07 PM permalink
    Quote: Mission146

    Quote: Ace2

    One good reason to gamble is value

    You can play craps all weekend at $25 plus 3/4/5 odds and have an average loss of only $50. This comes with a a standard deviation of $3000, which is what makes it fun

    Where else can you get a weekend of entertainment for $50 (drinks included, and possibly meals too)

  • link to original post



    If Iím on the right side of the bell curve, nowhere.

    If Iím 0.2 SD or more on the left side of the bell curve, just about anywhere.
  • link to original post

    Canít look at it that way. The variance will net out and a weekend will cost you $50 on average. If it cost exactly $50 every weekend then it wouldnít be any fun
    Itís all about making that GTA
    lilredrooster
    lilredrooster
    Joined: May 8, 2015
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    September 9th, 2021 at 2:00:11 AM permalink
    Quote: FastEddie

    Just wondering what anybody thinks of fixed odds betting at race tracks. Many are saying it will save horse racing. I do know I once bet a trotter at 10 To 1 a minute to post. Went off 5 to 1 with one last flash to come Paid $4.40.
    extreme example but often even waiting till last minute. 2 to 1 shot will pay $3.60 or less
    monmouth was supposed to have fixed odds when legislation passed but it never happened


    Like I said in another thread I love a good con. Like racrtracks never giving a bettor and even break. Charging for parking and admission. Every food item and cigarettes overpriced.




    I don't believe tracks will ever offer fixed odds - that would force the track itself to gamble - the sharps would crush the line they made - that was tried once by LV books - they quickly abandoned it after getting beat

    even with the pandemic the racing handle for 2020 was 10.930 billion - 10.597 billion of it was bet off track - thoroughbreds only
    with a handle like that racing will not disappear any time soon although it may continue to consolidate
    many more harness tracks are closing than thoroughbred tracks

    the vast majority of bettors are not paying anything for parking, admission or food. they're even getting the past performances for free - if they just make one $2 bet on the card - as indicated above more than 95% of betting now is done online or at simulcast facilities - no need to get beat by the track on these things anymore - if you want to watch live racing for the fun of it during the TC series or the Breeders Cup then yes, you will still get beat by the track on their charges


    a great many racing bettors gripe about late money causing payouts to be much lower than what is shown on the last flash of the tote - this usually only happens on the fave - although there are exceptions as you indicated

    also, it happens much less often at the largest tracks where the win pool is huge and only a gigantic bet can push the odds down by a lot



    there is a very simple solution to this - don't bet faves
    then if you win your payout will usually be equal to or greater than what was last shown on the tote
    faves are often a bad bet anyway
    overall, faves fail to win about 67% of the time






    http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=8




    .
    Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 9, 2021
    "𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
    FastEddie
    FastEddie
    Joined: Aug 29, 2021
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    September 9th, 2021 at 7:47:40 AM permalink
    Somehow England and Australia have had fixeds odds betting. And in the vase of England since like the 12th of never
    Betfair was to handle the fixed odds betting at Monmouth. I am not a chalk bettor. But logical horses are often overvalued due to two factors. The obvious one is hort fields. The other is all the exotic money. Once upon a time the only exotic bet was the daily double. My dad got several speeding tickets racing to bet the first race
    Now so much is bet on exotics by previous long shot players that previously helped raise the price on logical horse. I would so like to see fixed odds here. Nit just to bet against a wrong line but also for dutching opportunities between fixed odds and parimutuel. Yes favorites do lose 67 percent of time but all other lose more often . even money wins more often than 2 to 1. 2 to 1 wins more often than 3 to 1 etc. While I am ranting i remember bettors complaing about take out at 15 percent. Now majority of handle is exotics at 23 to 30 percent
    Mission146
    Mission146 
    Joined: May 15, 2012
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    September 9th, 2021 at 8:44:56 AM permalink
    Quote: Ace2

    Canít look at it that way. The variance will net out and a weekend will cost you $50 on average. If it cost exactly $50 every weekend then it wouldnít be any fun

  • link to original post



    Wouldn't it? $50 for a weekend of drinking seems like a Hell of a deal.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    billryan
    billryan
    Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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    September 9th, 2021 at 8:51:40 AM permalink
    Something seems a bit off. Blackjack and craps have fairly similar payouts and the rule of thumb for BJ seems to be to expect to lose one bet per hour. If betting $25 a hand, you can expect to lose 16 bets in 16 hours.
    Are you suggesting a craps player will average losing one bet per day?
    You also didn't include tipping. Between drinks, meals, chambermaid, ect, ect, you can double your $50 figure.
    billryan
    billryan
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    September 9th, 2021 at 8:53:06 AM permalink
    Quote: FastEddie

    Somehow England and Australia have had fixeds odds betting. And in the vase of England since like the 12th of never
    Betfair was to handle the fixed odds betting at Monmouth. I am not a chalk bettor. But logical horses are often overvalued due to two factors. The obvious one is hort fields. The other is all the exotic money. Once upon a time the only exotic bet was the daily double. My dad got several speeding tickets racing to bet the first race
    Now so much is bet on exotics by previous long shot players that previously helped raise the price on logical horse. I would so like to see fixed odds here. Nit just to bet against a wrong line but also for dutching opportunities between fixed odds and parimutuel. Yes favorites do lose 67 percent of time but all other lose more often . even money wins more often than 2 to 1. 2 to 1 wins more often than 3 to 1 etc. While I am ranting i remember bettors complaing about take out at 15 percent. Now majority of handle is exotics at 23 to 30 percent

  • link to original post




    Don't people pay to be bookies in those places, so people aren't betting against other players, they are betting against the house?
    lilredrooster
    lilredrooster
    Joined: May 8, 2015
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    September 9th, 2021 at 8:56:35 AM permalink
    Quote: FastEddie

    Yes favorites do lose 67 percent of time 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐧. even money wins more often than 2 to 1. 2 to 1 wins more often than 3 to 1 etc. While I am ranting i remember bettors complaing about take out at 15 percent. Now majority of handle is exotics at 23 to 30 percent




    Fast Eddie:

    yes, you are right about what you are saying
    it's a very tough game to beat

    just a couple of points - "𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐧" - right - except you're not going to bet "all others" - the goal should be to be very selective

    I think there are a few "freaks" (very few) who make a lot of bets and do well

    but for the rest of us the only hope is to be very, very selective and make few bets, but bets in which we have strong opinions

    anybody who logs on and bets the whole card (and there are a ton who do that) are for the most part dreaming that they're going to be long run winners
    that is IMO very close to impossible - although I think there are some computer geeks - syndicates - who are somehow doing it - not my thing and I'm no expert on that - I only know it's being done

    Andrew Beyer found very selective betting too boring - so he made smallish action bets while waiting for his opportunity for what he thought was worth a whale bet

    the way I understand Betfair is that the fixed odds are offered and taken by other bettors - Betfair takes a cut - Betfair can't lose - they're not offering any bets - they're just allowing others to offer them

    I would expect as gambling expands Betfair will become legal in other states - it's now I believe legal in N.J.

    but, if Betfair takes a big chunk out of the parimutuel handle - well, that could cause racing to disappear - real fast


    .
    "𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe

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