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darkoz
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Mission146
July 15th, 2021 at 10:51:28 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This topic of front loading got me to thinking.

My formula on the target point to play a must-hit-by progressive is based on when does a single bet become positive EV.

However, after fiddling with some numbers, if we assume the player is going to play until a must-hit-by is hit, then I show there is positive EV in playing below that point. It's better to not play hope other players pump up the jackpot and leave, but if you're swinging through a casino and won't return for a while, then, yes, I show the breakeven target point is about twice as far from the must-hit-by point as the point if going by a positive EV on the next bet.

I think I'll working on the target point for such a patient player.



I believe it worse than that.

Between must Hits hitting early and competitive teams sitting early I would say there is no break even point that would ever be reached

That is, if you just wait until the MH is breakeven you will find the seat already occupied until it hits and you wasted your time waiting.

And other times the machines hit Early.

Must Hit break even points to BEGIN PLAY are basically useless in the real world.

So when is proper time to start playing under real world conditions?
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Mission146
Mission146
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July 15th, 2021 at 11:15:57 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This topic of front loading got me to thinking.

My formula on the target point to play a must-hit-by progressive is based on when does a single bet become positive EV.

However, after fiddling with some numbers, if we assume the player is going to play until a must-hit-by is hit, then I show there is positive EV in playing below that point. It's better to not play hope other players pump up the jackpot and leave, but if you're swinging through a casino and won't return for a while, then, yes, I show the breakeven target point is about twice as far from the must-hit-by point as the point if going by a positive EV on the next bet.

I think I'll working on the target point for such a patient player.



There are so many more factors involved than that it's difficult to even know where to start.

For the purposes of this post, I am only talking about the machine taken in isolation, so no players card implications, mail or anything like that to further muddy the waters.

If there's an overall House Edge for the machine that a person can assume, that's all well and good, but that doesn't mean that is the only thing that a player should go by for the following reasons:

1.) The first thing that a player wants to look at when deciding whether or not to play is not only the expected hit point, but also the expected drop on the reels (base game) when trying to reach that expected hit point. The jackpot seed values as a percentage, if they are known, should be added to the house edge of the machine in question to tell the player what is likely to happen on the reels, and therefore, the expected, "Drop."

If a player does not do that, then the player is effectively double-counting the seed value of the progressive that he intends on taking down in the first place. He's also counting the seed value of a progressive (if not playing for the Major) that he will probably not hit.

2.) If the player is targeting a Minor, then if the player cannot be expected to hit the Major during this time, the player should consider the percentage meter contribution to the Major as good as gone. Even if it's not to be considered as gone, then any percentage contribution to the Major will at least be percentage that the player is not getting on the base game in the course of his play.

You could consider less than 100% of that meter contribution as good as gone by calculating it against the probability that you will hit the Major during this time, but that seems silly. These things are way too volatile to bend over backwards trying to get to 100.5%, or whatever and you will likely have better EV opportunities (if not single opportunities, then in the aggregate) elsewhere on the floor with far less risk in the amount of time playing this will take.

However, all of this can sometimes be partially offset when a player is targeting a Major (or some jackpot higher than some other). For example, there might be situations where a player targeting a Major who pushes it to the expected point that it should hit MUST hit the Minor if that happens, even though the Minor might not be +EV by itself at that point. In certain instances, a Minor (or lower value jackpot for machines with more than two) might even necessarily hit multiple times if the player hits the Major at the expected point, so that should be considered when deciding whether or not to take a play.

My general assumption is always just that I am going to drop 20% on the reels in the course of my play. That being the case, I tend not to find many plays that I consider, "Good," but that's fine, I don't really want them anyway.***

***Also, you will have plays where you DO drop more than 20% on the reels, even playing really conservative bet amounts.
Last edited by: Mission146 on Jul 15, 2021
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
sabre
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Mission146AxelWolf
July 15th, 2021 at 11:16:56 AM permalink
If you wait until every single bet is +EV you'll basically never play any must hits. Once they're in that range it's rare for anyone playing them, AP or not, to give up the machine before hitting it.

Everyone I know who plays must hits takes into account the aggregate expected return of the entire play.

The question I have is if a market has a minimum slot return of say 85%, does that factor in the reset points and meter rise of the progressives? If it doesn't, then in a lot of cases you are subtracting a substantial amount, as much as 5% on some machines to account for the progressives. So if you're calculating a worst case scenario return for a slot when you don't have the PAR sheet or marketing material revealing the RTP, that number is going to be below the minimum return required.

I'm also going to say that many markets are now saturated with homeless looking degens who stalk machines waiting for them to enter positive territory. They'll often sit right behind a machine chainsmoking and making things uncomfortable for the person playing them. Casino personnel are aware of the issue and in my opinion must hits are becoming like UX, where if you're checking/stalking them regularly you risk getting noticed and having your player's card shut off, if you aren't outright banned.

People have the data they need to calculate their own entry points for various games. They can put in the effort and do the legwork on their own if they're interested. Spoon feeding target numbers to the masses is just going to exacerbate the existing issue and drive casinos to stop offering these games.

I guess I'm selfishly stating that I think the existing information you provide is sufficient.

I'm curious to hear the opinion of others.
Mission146
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July 15th, 2021 at 11:27:04 AM permalink
Quote: sabre

If you wait until every single bet is +EV you'll basically never play any must hits. Once they're in that range it's rare for anyone playing them, AP or not, to give up the machine before hitting it.

Everyone I know who plays must hits takes into account the aggregate expected return of the entire play.



I agree. You pretty much have to if you want to have any plays on these, which is fine, because I don't want to have any plays on these that aren't phenomenal in value.

Quote:

The question I have is if a market has a minimum slot return of say 85%, does that factor in the reset points and meter rise of the progressives? If it doesn't, then in a lot of cases you are subtracting a substantial amount, as much as 5% on some machines to account for the progressives. So if you're calculating a worst case scenario return for a slot when you don't have the PAR sheet or marketing material revealing the RTP, that number is going to be below the minimum return required.

I'm also going to say that many markets are now saturated with homeless looking degens who stalk machines waiting for them to enter positive territory. They'll often sit right behind a machine chainsmoking and making things uncomfortable for the person playing them. Casino personnel are aware of the issue and in my opinion must hits are becoming like UX, where if you're checking/stalking them regularly you risk getting noticed and having your player's card shut off, if you aren't outright banned.

People have the data they need to calculate their own entry points for various games. They can put in the effort and do the legwork on their own if they're interested. Spoon feeding target numbers to the masses is just going to exacerbate the existing issue and drive casinos to stop offering these games.

I guess I'm selfishly stating that I think the existing information you provide is sufficient.

I'm curious to hear the opinion of others.



I believe that the minimum jurisdictional returns refer to the total return of the machine, so the seed value of the jackpots as well as progressive meter contribution would all be a part of the overall return of the machine. For me, I just assume that my drop on the reels is going to be about 20%, but I agree, it's possible (though probably not very likely) that it might be even worse than that. Either way, meter moves and seed values generally account for about 3-5%, all told.

The next paragraph about, "Homeless looking degens," probably depends mostly on the casino and the market. I would say that it also depends on how a person operates, such that I don't go, "Sitting behind," anyone and waiting for them. The worst I will ever do is walk in that general area every few minutes (or after going and looking at something else) and even then, that's only if I know they are sitting on a favorable situation (and I am also not talking about MHs). If someone wants to sit six feet away and bore holes into the player with their eyes so they can jump on the second the player gets up, then they can have the machine as far as I am concerned. They must need the EV more than I do.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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July 15th, 2021 at 11:33:37 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz



I believe it worse than that.

Between must Hits hitting early and competitive teams sitting early I would say there is no break even point that would ever be reached

That is, if you just wait until the MH is breakeven you will find the seat already occupied until it hits and you wasted your time waiting.

And other times the machines hit Early.

Must Hit break even points to BEGIN PLAY are basically useless in the real world.

So when is proper time to start playing under real world conditions?



If that's the case, then you'd have to calculate the value of the entire proposition. Obviously, you have discussed what you do, so there are all sorts of variables involved with that.

If a casino treated Video Poker and slots the same way...you know what I mean...then I guess the question would just be whether your EV on the must-hit is better than it would be on the Video Poker factoring in the return on the VP games. Depending on bet amounts, the MH might even be faster for coin-in if you're comfortable with the Variance, which is what I assume many of these, "Teams sitting early," are doing that for.

"Hey, I can generate slot coin-in at about 97%," that sort of thing.

If it hits early, then it hits early. If it hits early, then there was simply never a (known) play in the first place, so what difference does that make?

I guess the proper time to play depends on what you are playing it for. If you're just looking at the machine without other considerations, (and most of the people playing these are NOT just looking at it without other considerations) it's either +EV or it's not.
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Wizard
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Mission146
July 15th, 2021 at 11:35:40 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

So when is proper time to start playing under real world conditions?



Okay, here is my formula for the patient player. This formula is for the lowest jackpot you should play at, with 0 net long-term EV.

j = target jackpot
r = rate of meter rise
m = must-hit-by value
f = value of all fixed wins and slot points

j = m * (1-f-r)/(1-f+r)

To arrive at f, subtract from the return:

1. meter rise
2. value of jackpot reseed, which is 2*r*n/(m-n), where n = jackpot reseed amount.
Last edited by: Wizard on Jul 15, 2021
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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