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FTB
FTB
Joined: Jan 5, 2019
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November 26th, 2020 at 4:45:54 PM permalink
"What makes baccarat dangerous for casinos is that, due to the large amounts of money bet and the thin house edge, players have the potential to win serious money at the casino's expense. ... So if a guy is betting $10,000 a hand, he could conceivably win $1 million from [them]."

I taught myself, so to speak, how to play chess and later, poker. This entertaining thread might lead me to actually delve into baccarat one of these days.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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November 26th, 2020 at 5:53:51 PM permalink
I'm wondering if I'm less likely to get barred from the casino for playing Spanish 21 instead of regular blackjack, because nobody counts cards with all the 10's missing.
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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November 26th, 2020 at 6:25:34 PM permalink
ChumpChange: I've been banned for winning too much too consistently at blackjack, but no one has ever molested me for winning at baccarat.

FTB: While in general I would refrain from advocating gambling, this is after all a gambling site so I assume that most everyone here...already gambles. I will say that in Baccarat there are times when streaks / recurring patterns occur such that if you have any sense at all, you will win easily, and oftentimes, very big.

For example the last shoe I played on the last day of this most recent Vegas trip: after about ten hands it became apparent that banker was running ONCE only. In other words, that EVERY time bank hit, the next hand would be player. I detected the pattern very early on and started chanting it, "Bank runs only one, and then player!" It was incredible how consistently this happened. Every time bank ran one, I'd plop what felt like a pretty big bet on bank...and win. I mean it didn't matter how low bank drew initially or how high player drew (even to natural 8), bank would still win...every time on every such hand that presented itself, ALL THE WAY TO THE END OF THE SHOE without fail, without exception. I wish I had taken a picture of that shoe, but I was so excited and animated by the end as my stack of purple chips kept rising, that I forgot to do it before the dealer cleared the board. I even tore up my paper score card before I thought to take a picture of it.

Now, if youíre a ploppie who just bets the bank and thinks that the prior history of the shoe has no effect on its future, then you might as well not play this game. But for me, once I realized that pattern, on that last shoe of my trip, every time the bank won, Iíd plop a couple grand on player, and get paid, and this was after I had pussy footed around too many times and bet only around 800 on each such hand.

Now, given that pattern, why didnít I just empty the tray? The dealer kept saying Ė ďbet ten thousandĒ (the limit was twenty) and the pit boss, ďAll In player!Ē Well, this sort of thing is easier said than done. As the recurring pattern keeps presenting itself, you start thinking, well sh*t, maybe THIS is the hand where the pattern will break, so I better not go hog wild and risk a lot more chips than I have been winning per hand so far on this anticipated event. But in that shoe, the pattern NEVER broke Ė and I ended up winning $18,000., with ease, that session.

If I'd really pressed it, the way I used to play many years ago, I would have easily taken $200,000. on that shoe. All it really takes is winning at table limit on ONE hand of a pattern, discernible sequence, or run, then, you're ready to place table limit on the next hand because at worst, you'll wind up back at even (minus at worst commission if the two bets are on bank hands). Win TWO table limit hands on a pattern or sequence won, and now you have nothing to lose...at worst, you end up one table limit ahead even if you lose the third. Or, and this is a much safer way to go, if you're pressing your bet into an anticipated pattern, eventually you Will reach table limit anyway as long as the pattern keeps up, and win the next table limit hand, and...you're gone. And so on. It's in these types of scenarios that the big players empty the tray.

It's really not much different from day trading on a stock that is running. You might just sit there and watch it, let it get away, thinking no way this thing is going to keep moving up - and let's face it - there is NO guarantee it will, but...jump on board, forty points later, and you're GONE, the sky's the limit, as it ends up running a hundred and forty points that day. So who wins a hundred plus points one day at the stock market? The same sort of lucky bastards who are fearless and ride the baccarat streaks to their conclusion. Now, these days, I don't particularly LOOK to hit home runs...not in the stock market, not at the Baccarat tables, slow and steady (such as $74K over close to seven weeks in Vegas) is good enough for me...I'm more there to have fun (and winning is fun, losing is not) than to make a killing...but...I know a run when I see it, and I won't miss too many opportunities, even if I will tend these days to be conservative and underbet.
Last edited by: MDawg on Nov 26, 2020
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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November 26th, 2020 at 6:40:41 PM permalink
My local casino only has $25-$2,000 or $50-$3,000 baccarat tables. I'd have to drive to the Canadian border to find $15K limit baccarat tables, but I hear they limit blackjack maximums to the $300-$500 range.

As for craps, I've got to deal with $5-$500, $5/$10-$1000, or $10/$15-$2000 tables.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Nov 26, 2020
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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November 26th, 2020 at 7:19:28 PM permalink
Spreading $25-$1000 vs. spreading $100-$1000
https://www.reddit.com/r/blackjack/comments/jz4cna/spreading_251000_vs_spreading_1001000/
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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November 26th, 2020 at 7:33:57 PM permalink
How about a food based panoply of MDawg's latest Vegas trip? I took pictures of by no means all of our meals, but here are some:




























This was my staple breakfast most mornings, eggs over medium, chicken sausage, pancakes:









Truffle fries were a regular thing too:


Massive veal chop:

















Chicken noodle soup, another near daily staple:

Fruit, fruit, fruit EVERY day:

This is a croissant french toast dish, had that regularly too:












Salads daily of course:


















































I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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November 26th, 2020 at 7:48:03 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Spreading $25-$1000 vs. spreading $100-$1000
https://www.reddit.com/r/blackjack/comments/jz4cna/spreading_251000_vs_spreading_1001000/



My general spread is $100. to $10,000. and that includes at blackjack, although typically I'll cap it at $5000. with blackjack.

Currently at Venetian anyone off the street may bet $35,000. at Baccarat. How's that for serious action? I had one hand this trip where I placed $10,000. on bank (not my largest bet this trip, I had a few that were a bit larger). I drew a nine, and was getting ready to collect when she turned over a nine on player. Tie.

I debated for what seemed like a long time, pulled my bet, and called for a free hand. Bank opened a nine - again, but before I could kick myself for missing the opportunity, player opened the same nine too.

I stood up, paced a while, came back, and plopped the two chips $10,000. again, on bank. I drew a nine but this time - player opened a one.

SLAM! the winning cards on the table, leap up hands in the air triumphantly, and everyone around who had been watching smiles. But try to tell me that was easy - to hang tough through a tie and a free hand that ties, all with nines. But, if I had free handed that third hand I'd have a hard time wiping the memory of that missed win from my mind. Win more than a few hands like that, and it's hard for anyone to convince you that you can't win at Baccarat.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.
coachbelly
coachbelly
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
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November 26th, 2020 at 8:16:03 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

How about a food based panoply of MDawg's latest Vegas trip?



How was the octopus?

I have north-Mediterranean ancestors, always looking for good pulpo.

Quote: MDawg

kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
JohnzimboOnceDear
November 26th, 2020 at 8:26:12 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Cross-forum quoting, personal insult. Three-day suspension.



I was not aware of the no mentioning other forums rule. I guess that is on me, so I accept that. However, I reject that "fiction" is a personal insult. I did not say liar. MDawg used that word not me. I am saying I don't believe his claims and story as stated. And I don't believe them because they defy the mathematics. That opinion is my right and is not an insult.


Mike I don't know what is going on here that you won't call this guy out. His claims as stated defy the math, just as much as seeing 18 yo's in a row, just as much as Rob Singer's claims of winning millions using progressive wagering to overcome -EV, just as much as the frequent people that show up here touting martingale. You call all these people out because their claims defy the math involved. Yet with MDawg you say nothing. Mike you are the gambling math expert. Your reputation is all about the math. What you don't say matters just as much as what you do say in this kind of situation.

I accept that MDawg is a high roller and bets a lot and loses a lot and that because he loses more than he wins the casinos comp him generously. But the idea that he wins nearly every session and every day as he claims is bogus. Most of us here, including you Mike, know how the casino industry works. The simply are not comping a guy high end suites for 5-6 weeks at a time, that shows wins on every trip. Ridiculous! Now if you need to suspend or ban me, because I don't believe these claims AS STATED, that defy math, you do what you need to do.
coachbelly
coachbelly
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
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November 26th, 2020 at 8:30:26 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

I did not say liar.



You've never called MD a liar?

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