Perfect Charlie side bet
April 19th, 2012 at 7:26:36 AM
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Earlier this week, I was visiting a casino in Arizona and I saw the "Perfect Charlie" side bet on all of their six-deck games. This has to be one of the most ill conceived side bets I have ever seen. I did not see a single person make this wager during my visit.
The hit frequency is (72/312)*(48/311)*(24/310) = 0.002757, or 1-in-362.65. The top prize has probability (24/312)*(6/311)*(6/310)*(6/309)*(6/308) = 0.0000000108650, or 1-in-92,038,521. This wager would not be legal in NV, where the top prize must be 1-in-17,000,000 or less.
Who would play such a bet?
The paper was purposely meant to look old, like a miner might pull out of his pocket, though I am responsible for the crease.
The hit frequency is (72/312)*(48/311)*(24/310) = 0.002757, or 1-in-362.65. The top prize has probability (24/312)*(6/311)*(6/310)*(6/309)*(6/308) = 0.0000000108650, or 1-in-92,038,521. This wager would not be legal in NV, where the top prize must be 1-in-17,000,000 or less.
Who would play such a bet?
The paper was purposely meant to look old, like a miner might pull out of his pocket, though I am responsible for the crease.
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April 19th, 2012 at 8:40:12 AM
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Yes, exactly, the Fort McDowell casino off of101N, on the East side of Phoenix.
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April 19th, 2012 at 9:56:55 AM
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I so often say, "When a casino offers a bet for less than the table minimum, ask yourself, 'Why?'"
Of course, when I say that, I'm usually referring to the bets that are $1.
This thing costs only 50¢ ??? That alone probably raises enough red flags that it's no wonder nobody played it.
Of course, when I say that, I'm usually referring to the bets that are $1.
This thing costs only 50¢ ??? That alone probably raises enough red flags that it's no wonder nobody played it.
"Ouch" is putting it mildly!Quote: Wizard39% house edge (ouch!).
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 19th, 2012 at 10:00:43 AM
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There is also a 25 cent option:Quote: DJTeddyBearThis thing costs only 50¢ ??? That alone probably raises enough red flags that it's no wonder nobody played it.
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April 19th, 2012 at 10:06:24 AM
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Quote: teliot
The hit frequency is (72/312)*(48/311)*(24/310) = 0.002757, or 1-in-362.65. The top prize has probability (24/312)*(6/311)*(6/310)*(6/309)*(6/308) = 0.0000000108650, or 1-in-92,038,521. This wager would not be legal in NV, where the top prize must be 1-in-17,000,000 or less.
In Arizona, the top award on an electronic gaming device (aka slot machine) is also 1:17M. I didn't realize there was any standard for live games. In any case, thanks for the warning. I have yet to ever play a side bet since I know even the good ones have a horrible edge.
I heart Crystal Math.
April 19th, 2012 at 10:08:41 AM
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OMG!Quote: teliotThere is also a 25 cent option:
You've proved my point even more!
LOL
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 19th, 2012 at 10:08:43 AM
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I did the math for a bingo game and was dinged by GLI for exceeding 1-in-17M. In my defense, the company that hired me set the specifications.Quote: CrystalMathIn Arizona, the top award on an electronic gaming device (aka slot machine) is also 1:17M. I didn't realize there was any standard for live games.
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April 19th, 2012 at 10:14:21 AM
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Quote: teliotI designed a bingo game and was dinged by GLI for exceeding 1-in-17M. In my defense, the company that hired me set the specifications.
Thanks for the heads up. I design every slot with 1:17M in mind even though many jurisdictions are 1:25M; it just makes for easy transfers in the future. If I ever design live games, I guess I'll stick to the same standard.
I heart Crystal Math.
April 19th, 2012 at 10:19:57 AM
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Quote: only1choiceLink not working.
Sorry, try it now.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 19th, 2012 at 10:52:46 AM
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Wow. I didn't even know there WAS such a limit. Of course, had I exceeded it, I'm sure someone here, or the Wiz, would have pointed it out.Quote: teliotI did the math for a bingo game and was dinged by GLI for exceeding 1-in-17M.
For the record, I'm well below that limit. The odds on the top jackpot prize on my Poker For Roulette side bet, for a Five of a Kind or any Five Greens, is 1 in 1,165,223.1.
Last edited by: DJTeddyBear on Mar 21, 2021
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 19th, 2012 at 12:07:04 PM
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Quote: teliotThis wager would not be legal in NV, where the top prize must be 1-in-17,000,000 or less.
I have never heard this before now, and I can't find it in the Nevada Gaming Regulations (although my copy was retrieved about a year ago), although I did find a regulation saying that if the probability of hitting the jackpot on a slot machine is 1/100,000,000 or smaller, the odds must be displayed on the machine somewhere.
Is it in the NGR? (Or perhaps you meant NJ instead of NV?)
April 19th, 2012 at 12:23:32 PM
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Nevada Gaming wouldn't approve it as it stands as the house edge is higher than 24%.
April 19th, 2012 at 12:35:42 PM
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I believe the statutory limit is 25%.Quote: SwitchNevada Gaming wouldn't approve it as it stands as the house edge is higher than 24%.
Lucky Ladies is 24.71 on the 6-deck game and 24.94% on the 2-deck game. A few years back, some casinos were offering the 6-deck pay table for Lucky Ladies on their double-deck games (edge = 30.05%) and were given a cease-and-desist by the State of NV.
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April 19th, 2012 at 12:47:15 PM
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Quote: SwitchNevada Gaming wouldn't approve it as it stands as the house edge is higher than 24%.
That is true. What I find strange is they are enforcing that on the hold percentage for field trial games. One game failed because it held over 25%. That, I think, is ridiculous. I'm not sure if that is official policy, or the agent didn't understand the difference between house edge and hold percentage.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 19th, 2012 at 12:52:07 PM
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I double checked the value of 1-in-17M. I am not sure where that comes from, but I am sure that I have run into 1-in-17M many times. NRS seems to allow unlimited odds, it just requires notification if the results are in excess of 1-in-100M.
Now that I think about it, when GLI dinged the bingo math I did, it was for exceeding 1-in-50M (it was about 1-in-100B).
Now that I think about it, when GLI dinged the bingo math I did, it was for exceeding 1-in-50M (it was about 1-in-100B).
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April 19th, 2012 at 1:06:26 PM
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"B" ?Quote: teliotNow that I think about it, when GLI dinged the bingo math I did, it was for exceeding 1-in-50M (it was about 1-in-100B).
Is that correct?
I could see making an argument for 1 in 100M, but 1 in 100B? Holy crap!
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 19th, 2012 at 1:12:19 PM
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Quote: teliotI double checked the value of 1-in-17M. I am not sure where that comes from, but I am sure that I have run into 1-in-17M many times. NRS seems to allow unlimited odds, it just requires notification if the results are in excess of 1-in-100M.
Would that be a mere indication that the odds are in excess of one in one hundred million, or do exact odds need to be posted?
I'd be interested to see if people would play a game offering odds of one in one trillion (how? simple: choose a number between 1 and 1,000,000,000,000; if it matches the number dran randomly by the game, you win). Of course you'd have to offer a huge jackpot.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
April 19th, 2012 at 1:22:33 PM
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Yes, 1-in-100B. Essentially, they wanted a jackpot to be paid for a bingo card that got blacked out completely with 25 balls, 5 chosen for each letter. I talked them down a bit from that design, but it was still immensely unlikely.Quote: DJTeddyBearI could see making an argument for 1 in 100M, but 1 in 100B? Holy crap!
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April 19th, 2012 at 1:43:54 PM
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The fact is that most jurisdictions require 1:17M or 1:25M. GlI requires 1:50M, but very few jurisdictions follow GLI-11. I just didn't know that these would apply to live games.
As for the 25% max hold, I'm guessing that doesn't apply to live keno.
As for the 25% max hold, I'm guessing that doesn't apply to live keno.
I heart Crystal Math.
