Can roulette be beat by volatility extraction?
March 4th, 2026 at 7:54:04 PM
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I need to be clear here…
I do not mean in an EV sense, I do not expect the wheel to change. EV is based on total wagered…kinda a shit metric and stupid premise in general. More important for the casino’s bottom line than mine.
But, after tons of monte carlos, 100k round sims etc
it does appear that certain strategies are stable enough to bounce up and down enough times
that you can extract more than your initial starting balance on average.
Roulette can’t be beaten in a static odds sense, but I am quite confident various bet types and progressions can create enough fluctuations that they total FAR GREATER than your starting balance.
and any gambler probably knows this or has witnessed this sort of thing. You have $100 and play and get the notification on ur phone “you have wagered $603 in the past 30min”
meanwhile ur balance is $45 lol
lets use $200 bankroll, 3 streets as an example
$1 a pop. Double every 4 losses, reset on win.
• 4 losses → $12
• 8 losses → $36
• 12 losses → $84
• 16 losses → $180
• 17th loss → +$24 = $204
You bust on the 17th straight loss.
Bust Probability
q^{17} = 0.7632^{17}
≈ 0.98%
you have a 99+% chance at profiting any given cycle… as it gets deeper the profit increases.
avg cycle profit ~ $15
regardless… on average how many cycles could you do this til bust?
well… the MEDIAN is 78, the mean is ~ 113
so lets super lowball here…
if you withdraw $15 each successfully completed cycle
and survive 30 cycles
is that more than $200..??
sounds closer to $450
and so lets look at that, what’s the chance of hitting just 30 cycles before bust?
is exceptionally below the avg expectation but It makes an important point.
~ 76%
TLDR you can more than double your money at a rate of 70+%
but the vacuum math nerds (likely casino hired) look at everything per spin and talk static odds instead of probability windows.
they lie to your face claiming “the game can’t be beat”
actually it definitely can
what you ACTUALLY mean is…
…you cannot alter the static odds per spin.
yeah uhh.. everyone already knew that
shocker!
even if my math isn’t perfect, I know for a fact this along with many other strategies, create enough fluctuations in the bankroll… that you can extract 2x your starting balance
more times than not
P({survive } { cycles}) = q^n
• Survive 10 cycles: 0.9912^{10} \approx 0.914 → 91.4%
• Survive 20 cycles: 0.9912^{20} \approx 0.835 → 83.5%
• Survive 30 cycles: 0.9912^{30} \approx 0.768 → 76.8%
• Survive 50 cycles: 0.9912^{50} \approx 0.642 → 64.2%
• Survive 100 cycles: 0.9912^{100} \approx 0.412 → 41.2%
• Survive 200 cycles: 0.9912^{200} \approx 0.170 → 17.0%
even just 20 cycles gets u over $200 profit.
please someone tell me im wrong.
I do not mean in an EV sense, I do not expect the wheel to change. EV is based on total wagered…kinda a shit metric and stupid premise in general. More important for the casino’s bottom line than mine.
But, after tons of monte carlos, 100k round sims etc
it does appear that certain strategies are stable enough to bounce up and down enough times
that you can extract more than your initial starting balance on average.
Roulette can’t be beaten in a static odds sense, but I am quite confident various bet types and progressions can create enough fluctuations that they total FAR GREATER than your starting balance.
and any gambler probably knows this or has witnessed this sort of thing. You have $100 and play and get the notification on ur phone “you have wagered $603 in the past 30min”
meanwhile ur balance is $45 lol
lets use $200 bankroll, 3 streets as an example
$1 a pop. Double every 4 losses, reset on win.
• 4 losses → $12
• 8 losses → $36
• 12 losses → $84
• 16 losses → $180
• 17th loss → +$24 = $204
You bust on the 17th straight loss.
Bust Probability
q^{17} = 0.7632^{17}
≈ 0.98%
you have a 99+% chance at profiting any given cycle… as it gets deeper the profit increases.
avg cycle profit ~ $15
regardless… on average how many cycles could you do this til bust?
well… the MEDIAN is 78, the mean is ~ 113
so lets super lowball here…
if you withdraw $15 each successfully completed cycle
and survive 30 cycles
is that more than $200..??
sounds closer to $450
and so lets look at that, what’s the chance of hitting just 30 cycles before bust?
is exceptionally below the avg expectation but It makes an important point.
~ 76%
TLDR you can more than double your money at a rate of 70+%
but the vacuum math nerds (likely casino hired) look at everything per spin and talk static odds instead of probability windows.
they lie to your face claiming “the game can’t be beat”
actually it definitely can
what you ACTUALLY mean is…
…you cannot alter the static odds per spin.
yeah uhh.. everyone already knew that
shocker!
even if my math isn’t perfect, I know for a fact this along with many other strategies, create enough fluctuations in the bankroll… that you can extract 2x your starting balance
more times than not
P({survive } { cycles}) = q^n
• Survive 10 cycles: 0.9912^{10} \approx 0.914 → 91.4%
• Survive 20 cycles: 0.9912^{20} \approx 0.835 → 83.5%
• Survive 30 cycles: 0.9912^{30} \approx 0.768 → 76.8%
• Survive 50 cycles: 0.9912^{50} \approx 0.642 → 64.2%
• Survive 100 cycles: 0.9912^{100} \approx 0.412 → 41.2%
• Survive 200 cycles: 0.9912^{200} \approx 0.170 → 17.0%
even just 20 cycles gets u over $200 profit.
please someone tell me im wrong.
March 4th, 2026 at 8:14:51 PM
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@wizard hook me up on that “nobody can beat roulette” money 😂
actually im willing to believe it was a farce proposition and yall expect people to beat the wheel itself which everyone knows isnt possible
actually im willing to believe it was a farce proposition and yall expect people to beat the wheel itself which everyone knows isnt possible
March 4th, 2026 at 11:19:44 PM
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Quote: cheddachaser$1 a pop. Double every 4 losses, reset on win.
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Thread moved to Betting Systems.
Quote:please someone tell me im wrong.
All betting systems are equally worthless.
May the cards fall in your favor.
March 4th, 2026 at 11:25:38 PM
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Quote: Dieter...
All betting systems are equally worthless.
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If no progression can work at all, neither can card counting.
Prove me wrong!
March 4th, 2026 at 11:35:42 PM
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Quote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: Dieter...
All betting systems are equally worthless.
link to original post
If no progression can work at all, neither can card counting.
Prove me wrong!
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Monkey,
The wheel gets shuffled every hand.
May the cards fall in your favor.
March 4th, 2026 at 11:45:53 PM
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Quote: DieterQuote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: Dieter...
All betting systems are equally worthless.
link to original post
If no progression can work at all, neither can card counting.
Prove me wrong!
link to original post
Monkey,
The wheel gets shuffled every hand.
link to original post
Aw shucks, I can't come up with some pedantic possibility where a progression might give you something on a wheel too.
I'm at a loss for words!
