Poll

No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
5 votes (26.31%)
8 votes (42.1%)
2 votes (10.52%)
3 votes (15.78%)
1 vote (5.26%)
2 votes (10.52%)
9 votes (47.36%)
2 votes (10.52%)

19 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
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March 29th, 2024 at 2:10:23 PM permalink
I went to the Downtown Grand yesterday for their 3:00 Thursday blackjack tournament. While there, I noticed a set of 12 side bets in roulette called the Birthday Bets. There is one bet for each of the 12 rows. Each pays 6 to 1 if the next spin wins and 50 to 1 if the next two spins win.

For all the complete rules and analysis, please see my page on the Birthday Bets

The question for the poll is would you bet the Birthday Bets?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ChumpChange
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March 29th, 2024 at 2:54:40 PM permalink
I think I'd rather bet $10 on a single street then press it to $40 on the next spin in hopes of collecting $440 + $70 = $510 total. Looks about the same though. I get to keep the $70 on the 1st spin wins even though the 2nd spin loses 11 out of 12 times, which is different than the Birthday Bet. This is good if you have a strong hunch a street will repeat or you know where to place your 2nd bet.
ChallengedMilly
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March 29th, 2024 at 3:13:00 PM permalink
Yeah I'd probably keep a bet on one or two of them for a session if I was into playing roulette. Back-to-back number hits do happen frequent enough in any average session that you could definitely high roll into hitting your win goal and walking away.
dcjohn
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March 29th, 2024 at 4:13:24 PM permalink
I don't play -EV games so my opinion might not count.

It seems like a flat out fraud. Much like the Big 6 & Big 8 in craps, there is another way to get the same (better) bet and odds with another slightly less convenient bet, as you show with the parlay option in your analysis.

Though I have a question.

You explain in your parlay analysis that the house edge on the parlay is 7.34% rather than the 5.26% that applies to every individual bet in roulette (to my knowledge). The parlay is composed only of a sequence of standard roulette bets with standard payouts. I understand that the resolution of the parlay in an uneven number of average spins affects the effective house edge. But so long as you only make standard roulette bets with standard payouts (and bets that never oppose each other simultaneously), isn't the long term house edge always 5.26%? Meaning the parlay is just another entertaining way to play that doesn't raise or lower your EV?

Whereas the "birthday bet" with a house edge of more than double is actually a way to bleed more money faster and should be regarded as a sucker bet, if even allowed. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not aware of any individual double-0 roulette bet with a house edge of more or less than 5.26%. (Haven't played roulette in decades). I understand that fact to be a mainstay of the game and a reason to regard it as a less "unfair" game in a sense, not because 5% is such a great edge to give up, but because there is no inherent deception in the game to lure you to play higher house edge bets, like for example center bets in craps, surrender in bj, etc. So under the assumption that I'm not too out of touch, that birthday bet seems especially egregious to me.
Wizard
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dcjohn
March 29th, 2024 at 5:26:41 PM permalink
Quote: dcjohn

Though I have a question.

You explain in your parlay analysis that the house edge on the parlay is 7.34% rather than the 5.26% that applies to every individual bet in roulette (to my knowledge). The parlay is composed only of a sequence of standard roulette bets with standard payouts. I understand that the resolution of the parlay in an uneven number of average spins affects the effective house edge. But so long as you only make standard roulette bets with standard payouts (and bets that never oppose each other simultaneously), isn't the long term house edge always 5.26%? Meaning the parlay is just another entertaining way to play that doesn't raise or lower your EV?
link to original post



As I try to explain in my page, the house edge seems higher, but it's because the player is betting more. The house edge is still 5.26% based on all money bet in the parlay, but 7.34% based on just the original bet.

Ultimately, I'm trying to show a better way to achieve what the Birthday Bets are trying to do with a parlay.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
MrCasinoGames
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March 31st, 2024 at 11:57:46 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I went to the Downtown Grand yesterday for their 3:00 Thursday blackjack tournament. While there, I noticed a set of 12 side bets in roulette called the Birthday Bets. There is one bet for each of the 12 rows. Each pays 6 to 1 if the next spin wins and 50 to 1 if the next two spins win.

For all the complete rules and analysis, please see my page on the Birthday Bets

The question for the poll is would you bet the Birthday Bets?
link to original post


FYI, A similar Roulette Side-bet was Invented-by Stephen Au-Yeung (aka Chi Fat Au-Yeung) in 2014 (10-Years Ago).
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ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 31st, 2024 at 1:47:26 PM permalink
Just trying to do the math for those who don't have the layout.
A $10 single street bet pays 12 for 1 on a win or $120, $50 is removed to pay the player and $70 is rebet. That $70 wins at 12 for 1 for $840 and $500 is returned to the player and $340 is rebet. The $340 wins at 12 for 1 and pays $4,080.

For a $10 double street bet, on a win it pays 6 for 1 and $30 is returned to the player & $30 is rebet. $30 wins $180 at 6 for 1 and $80 is returned to the player and $100 is rebet. $100 wins and pays $600. (This may not add up to the 2:1. 11:1 & 78:1 payouts listed on the brochure. I came up with totals of 2:1, 10:1 & 70:1)
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Mar 31, 2024
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 31st, 2024 at 2:42:20 PM permalink
Edit
Quote: ChumpChange

I think I'd rather bet $10 on a single street then press it to $40 on the next spin in hopes of collecting $480 + $70 = $550 total. Looks about the same though. I get to keep the $70 on the 1st spin wins even though the 2nd spin loses 11 out of 12 times, which is different than the Birthday Bet. This is good if you have a strong hunch a street will repeat or you know where to place your 2nd bet.
link to original post

MrCasinoGames
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April 11th, 2024 at 12:59:18 AM permalink
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