Poll

4 votes (57.14%)
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1 vote (14.28%)
3 votes (42.85%)
2 votes (28.57%)
4 votes (57.14%)
2 votes (28.57%)
2 votes (28.57%)
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7 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
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June 7th, 2023 at 3:37:17 PM permalink
The Lucky 6 is a side bet that wins on a winning banker total of 6. It can be found on commission free baccarat tables that pay 1 to 2 on such a hand. Following the 23/12 pay table, the house edge is 11.7%.

I got to wondering if the Lucky 6 is countable. I have already written about the countability of the Panda 8 and our own teliot has done the same for the Dragon 7.

The start to any card counting vulnerability study is to look at the effect of each type of card removed. Here that is for the Lucky 6.

Card Removed Effect x3274 Rounded
0 -0.000611 -1.999652 -2
1 -0.000329 -1.075759 -1
2 -0.000323 -1.056097 -1
3 -0.001131 -3.701455 -4
4 -0.000393 -1.286914 -1
5 -0.000278 -0.910899 -1
6 -0.005386 -17.632244 -18
7 0.003907 12.792298 13
8 0.003537 11.578561 12
9 0.002838 9.291114 9


Note that it's very bad to remove a 6 and good to remove a 7 to 9.

The rounded column shows the value I ascribe to the removal of each card.

To cut to the chase, under typical Vegas rules on burn cards and the cut cards (resulting in an average of 80.1 hands per shoe), I get the following:

Bet with a true count of +48 or better.

Probability of betting = 4.13%
Average advantage, given bet made = 7.00%.
Average units won per shoe = 0.23
Average units won per hand = 0.0029

Bottom line is this wouldn't be worth the time of any advantage player, except maybe if he were using a computer. In which case, he should use a program to do a perfect combinatorial analysis of every bet available, given the exact count of every known card left in the shoe.

The question for the poll is what do you think of this?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
GenoDRPh
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June 9th, 2023 at 10:59:42 AM permalink
Wiz,

In card games that are countable, are there situations where a count that is in the player's favor for one particular bet also make another bet disadvantageous? I'm not referring to opposite bets, like Player versus Banker, but seemingly independent bets. As well, are thee any countable bets where the count favors more than one bet and players should bet both where rules allow? Or are all countable bets independent of each other?
DogHand
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June 11th, 2023 at 8:28:01 PM permalink
Wiz,

What are the "typical Vegas rules on burn cards and the cut cards (resulting in an average of 80.1 hands per shoe)"?

Dog Hand
Wizard
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June 15th, 2023 at 5:10:23 PM permalink
Here is another easier count system for the Lucky 6.

6 = -3
7 = +1
8 = +1
9 = +1

Bet at a true count of +7 or higher.

Probability positive count = 3.1% 0.030882
Average advantage per hand = 0.2% 0.001936
Average advantage per bet = 6.3% 0.062698
Hands per shoe = 80.1
Average win per shoe = 0.155049
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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June 15th, 2023 at 5:11:30 PM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh

In card games that are countable, are there situations where a count that is in the player's favor for one particular bet also make another bet disadvantageous? I'm not referring to opposite bets, like Player versus Banker, but seemingly independent bets. As well, are thee any countable bets where the count favors more than one bet and players should bet both where rules allow? Or are all countable bets independent of each other?
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Somebody asked this on my live stream today (perhaps you). As I said on the show, I have a count strategy, which makes use of a single count, for betting on both the Player and Banker in baccarat.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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June 15th, 2023 at 5:14:10 PM permalink
Quote: DogHand

Wiz,

What are the "typical Vegas rules on burn cards and the cut cards (resulting in an average of 80.1 hands per shoe)"?

Dog Hand
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At the start of a new shoe, the dealer will turn over one card. This will determine how many cards the dealer will burn, according to the baccarat value, except a 10 or face card will result in 10 cards burned.

The cut card will be placed 16 cards from the bottom of the shoe. When the cut card appears, the dealer will finish that hand, play one more hand, and then start a new shoe. If the cut card comes out instead of the first card, the dealer will finish that hand, and then start a new shoe.

Source: https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/#rules
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Twonukes
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September 15th, 2023 at 11:42:36 PM permalink
I scouted for this game in Asia but I cannot find less than half a deck cut off pen. Do you know how having half a deck or a a deck cut off in pen effects the probability of betting, average advantage per bet made, and average units won per shoe?
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