drmario
Joined: Nov 21, 2011
• Posts: 30
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June 15th, 2022 at 6:32:35 PM permalink
Raise 4?
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 3755
June 15th, 2022 at 7:11:30 PM permalink

I meant to label the strategy decisions this way:

For basic strategy, I am currently getting:

Raise 2: AQ2 or higher

Raise 1: K97 Or Higher

Fold: K-9-6 or lower

I still have a bug relating to when the sabotage cards are paired and match a dealer card. When I fix it, my recommended strategy may change a skootch.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
• Posts: 2628
June 15th, 2022 at 11:20:01 PM permalink
I agree that it would be in the area of AQx.
Again ignoring the Player's cards, which would have a slightly impact on the boundary as it would reduce the chances of the Dealer getting A-high, I get the boundary is AQ5. Chances of AQ6+ = 49.82% AQ4- = 49.93%.

Added: I'm guessing when the Player's cards are considered it will be similar to other poker games. In those cases when you have a card, that reduces the chances of the Dealer getting one, while if you don't then the chances for the Dealer is better. Thus I can imagine the same logic might apply here; so you raise any AQx (as you have one of the Queens) and only call with AJx (as the Dealer has more chance to beat you with an AQ).
Last edited by: charliepatrick on Jun 16, 2022
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 3755
June 16th, 2022 at 1:13:37 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

I agree that it would be in the area of AQx.
Again ignoring the Player's cards, which would have a slightly impact on the boundary as it would reduce the chances of the Dealer getting A-high, I get the boundary is AQ5. Chances of AQ6+ = 49.82% AQ4- = 49.93%.

Added: I'm guessing when the Player's cards are considered it will be similar to other poker games. In those cases when you have a card, that reduces the chances of the Dealer getting one, while if you don't then the chances for the Dealer is better. Thus I can imagine the same logic might apply here; so you raise any AQx (as you have one of the Queens) and only call with AJx (as the Dealer has more chance to beat you with an AQ).

I have a composition dependent spreadsheet. The removal of the Ace in AQx will increase the EV of AQ2 by more than 4 percentage points (i.e., the win percentage of AQ2 goes up by about 0.7%). Because you are reducing the probability of dealer's AKx and AQx hands that you will lose to.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 3755
June 16th, 2022 at 1:13:40 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

I agree that it would be in the area of AQx.
Again ignoring the Player's cards, which would have a slightly impact on the boundary as it would reduce the chances of the Dealer getting A-high, I get the boundary is AQ5. Chances of AQ6+ = 49.82% AQ4- = 49.93%.

Added: I'm guessing when the Player's cards are considered it will be similar to other poker games. In those cases when you have a card, that reduces the chances of the Dealer getting one, while if you don't then the chances for the Dealer is better. Thus I can imagine the same logic might apply here; so you raise any AQx (as you have one of the Queens) and only call with AJx (as the Dealer has more chance to beat you with an AQ).

I have a composition dependent spreadsheet. The removal of the Ace in AQx will increase the EV of AQ2 by more than 4 percentage points (i.e., the win percentage of AQ2 goes up by about 0.7%). Because you are reducing the probability of dealer's AKx and AQx hands that you will lose to.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 3755
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June 16th, 2022 at 8:49:44 PM permalink
Found the glitch in my spreadsheet, and it should be accurate now.

Three Card Sabotage Basic Strategy
Raise-2 on AJT or Higher.
Raise-1 on K94 to AJ9
Fold on K93 or lower.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Jun 16, 2022
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
camapl
Joined: Jun 22, 2010
• Posts: 362
June 17th, 2022 at 1:11:12 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Found the glitch in my spreadsheet, and it should be accurate now.

Three Card Sabotage Basic Strategy
Raise-2 on AJT or Higher.
Raise-1 on K94 to AJ9
Fold on K93 or lower.

That’s awesome that you’ve worked out the strategy! Any chance that the house edge is an “easy calculation” from here? Just curious…
* Actual results may vary.
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 3755
June 17th, 2022 at 7:43:03 PM permalink
Quote: camapl

That’s awesome that you’ve worked out the strategy! Any chance that the house edge is an “easy calculation” from here? Just curious…

First we don't yet know what the bonus payouts are for the high hands.
Second, there are two ways to calculate the house edge, both of which will be much easier now that we have defined the strategy rules:

- a loop code that runs through every combination of player, dealer and sabotage cards. (This is a 9 card game, which is not too bad although the UTH game that Teliot was evaluating in another thread was also 9 cards and that looping code run was stated to take about 4 days.)
- a simulation, just run 100M or 1B hands and accumulate statistics.

There are multiple members who could do either or both but they need to have an interest. The sabotage cards are a novel innovation (which I kinda like) but it does make algorithms for automated hand evaluation a bit more difficult because the dealer's hand can range from 0 to 4 cards.

We'll see if anyone steps up.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
• Posts: 2628
June 18th, 2022 at 2:20:18 AM permalink
^ I agree it's a lot of work although in this case, unlike UTH, there's only one decision point for the Player.

But then I'd go onto looping all 52/51/50/49 remaining cards, ignoring any scenarios with ones already held by the player... (while this is longer than working out the types of hands the dealer can make, it's less error prone). I think at the knockout stage one may be able to work out the chances of matching cards rather than looping, but again it might be easier just to loop.

(If I wasn't busy working on a Blackjack project I might have looked into this in more detail!)
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 3755
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June 18th, 2022 at 5:47:11 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

^ I agree it's a lot of work although in this case, unlike UTH, there's only one decision point for the Player.

But then I'd go onto looping all 52/51/50/49 remaining cards, ignoring any scenarios with ones already held by the player... (while this is longer than working out the types of hands the dealer can make, it's less error prone). I think at the knockout stage one may be able to work out the chances of matching cards rather than looping, but again it might be easier just to loop.

(If I wasn't busy working on a Blackjack project I might have looked into this in more detail!)