ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 30th, 2022 at 7:51:47 PM permalink
First off, I know that "all card games out of a shoe" are generally countable, but I am looking to see if it potentially "worth doing" for the pay-tables below:

Note 1: All bets on offer in the pay tables are: "x to 1".
Note 2: Assume that the shoe is played until there is somewhere between 1/2 a deck and 1 deck of cards left.
Note 3: Shoe starts with 8-decks (don't know if this info helps or not).
Note 4: I am writing the side bets in the same order as in the link here and the odds for the game I found are different when you see " *** " next to the odds below.

----
Tiger Pair

Twin Tiger Pair: 100
Double Tiger Pair: 25 ***
Single Tiger Pair: 4
All other outcomes: -1

----
Small Tiger

Same as the table in "note 4 link", above

----
Big Tiger

Banker win with three-card total of six: 55 ***
All other outcomes: -1

----
Tiger

Banker win with three-card total of six: 22 ***
Banker win with two-card total of six: 12
All other outcomes: -1

----
Tiger Tie

6-6 tie: 45 ***
All other outcomes: -1

----
"Eyeballing Guess" : IMO, at these odds, the "Tiger Tie" and "Big Tiger" are probably the most likely to have a player edge (if there is a player edge in counting any of these bets).
teliot
teliot
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April 30th, 2022 at 7:59:38 PM permalink
.....
End of the world website: www.climatecasino.net
teliot
teliot
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ksdjdj
April 30th, 2022 at 8:01:14 PM permalink
These bets were created by Andrew Macdonald at Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. I believe they are now at a few other properties throughout Asia. They are not countable in any meaningful way. A couple of them have a huge house edge. Andrew was the smartest guy in the entire Sands operation while he worked for them.
End of the world website: www.climatecasino.net
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 30th, 2022 at 8:13:27 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

These bets were created by Andrew Macdonald at Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. I believe they are now at a few other properties throughout Asia. They are not countable in any meaningful way. A couple of them have a huge house edge. Andrew was the smartest guy in the entire Sands operation while he worked for them.
link to original post


I don't disagree with any of what was written above, but it may still be worth looking into because:

1) Tiger Tie at the "new odds" of 45/1 has about an 11.5% house edge (instead of the roughly 30.7% house edge, at the "old/original odds" of 35/1)

2) Big Tiger at the "new odds" of 55/1 has about a 6.9% house edge (instead of the roughly 15.3% house edge, at the "old/original odds" of 50/1)

---
IMO, they are the two that are the "most likely to be countable^^^ " (but I won't be able to work this out / prove or disprove it myself).

^^^: It still doesn't mean they can necessarily be counted in any "meaningful way"
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 30th, 2022 at 8:41:00 PM permalink
Update (to do with the Tiger Tie @ 45/1):

After "playing around" with the baccarat calculator here I noticed the following:

If you have 53 cards left, and all suits are "evenly spread ^^^ ", except there are five 6s left, then the EV goes to about -3%

If you have 54 cards left, and all suits are "evenly spread ^^^ ", except there are six 6s left, then the EV goes to about +8.2%

^^^: By this I mean, of the remaining suits there are: four of each for Ace to 9 (excluding the 6s) and sixteen "10-value cards" in total

----
I think it is definitely "countable ", but I just want to see if it there are "enough hands per shoe x average EV", to see if is worth looking at further, or not.
teliot
teliot
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ksdjdj
April 30th, 2022 at 8:48:44 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Update (to do with the Tiger Tie @ 45/1):

After "playing around" with the baccarat calculator here I noticed the following:

If you have 53 cards left, and all suits are "evenly spread ^^^ ", except there are five 6s left, then the EV goes to about -3%

If you have 54 cards left, and all suits are "evenly spread ^^^ ", except there are six 6s left, then the EV goes to about +8.2%

^^^: By this I mean, of the remaining suits there are: four of each for Ace to 9 (excluding the 6s) and sixteen "10-value cards" in total

----
I think it is definitely "countable ", but I just want to see if it there are "enough hands per shoe x average EV", to see if is worth looking at further, or not.
link to original post

let me put it to you in more plain language ... I have done the card counting analysis on all of these bets ... They are worthless. If you are in that part of the world, learn how to count the pairs bet.
End of the world website: www.climatecasino.net
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 30th, 2022 at 9:11:56 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

(snip)
let me put it to you in more plain language ... I have done the card counting analysis on all of these bets ... They are worthless. If you are in that part of the world, learn how to count the pairs bet.
link to original post


I have read a lot of your articles in the past and found them all very interesting at the time.
But Australia is now a restricted country with 888, so I haven't accessed them for a while ( I think the last time was around 2017 or 2018).

I vaguely remember something like "weights and measures" being used for the pairs bet, is that correct?
Also, I can't remember if 11/1 for pairs is worth doing or not, when there are between 26 and 52 cards left.

Lastly, I was going to PM you this, but you must have that feature disabled (that is why I wrote it here instead).

Thanks for your help.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 30th, 2022 at 9:22:41 PM permalink
I put a strike through "all of my previous post", because I managed to access your site by using the "wayback machine".

Thanks again.
ssho88
ssho88
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ksdjdjteliot
April 30th, 2022 at 10:46:04 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

First off, I know that "all card games out of a shoe" are generally countable, but I am looking to see if it potentially "worth doing" for the pay-tables below:

Note 1: All bets on offer in the pay tables are: "x to 1".
Note 2: Assume that the shoe is played until there is somewhere between 1/2 a deck and 1 deck of cards left.
Note 3: Shoe starts with 8-decks (don't know if this info helps or not).
Note 4: I am writing the side bets in the same order as in the link here and the odds for the game I found are different when you see " *** " next to the odds below.

----
Tiger Pair

Twin Tiger Pair: 100
Double Tiger Pair: 25 ***
Single Tiger Pair: 4
All other outcomes: -1

----
Small Tiger

Same as the table in "note 4 link", above

----
Big Tiger

Banker win with three-card total of six: 55 ***
All other outcomes: -1

----
Tiger

Banker win with three-card total of six: 22 ***
Banker win with two-card total of six: 12
All other outcomes: -1

----
Tiger Tie

6-6 tie: 45 ***
All other outcomes: -1

----
"Eyeballing Guess" : IMO, at these odds, the "Tiger Tie" and "Big Tiger" are probably the most likely to have a player edge (if there is a player edge in counting any of these bets).
link to original post



PAIR is hard to beat with card counting unless dealt until last 14 cards or less. You must use other "creative technique" to beat pair side bet !
Last edited by: ssho88 on May 1, 2022
teliot
teliot
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ksdjdj
May 1st, 2022 at 4:51:27 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I put a strike through "all of my previous post", because I managed to access your site by using the "wayback machine".

Thanks again.
link to original post

My book is available in Australia at Amazon.au for under 25 AD.

BTW -- I did not publish my work on the Tiger since it was done after my retirement.
End of the world website: www.climatecasino.net

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