Keep it Straight -- Second Chance
December 9th, 2021 at 7:52:43 AM
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This game is a winner! Fast-paced and fun! We had a blast playing this game at the Flamingo. Hopefully Caesars will expand this to their other properties so the lines to play won’t be so long. And people won’t get up from the table so there was a bit of crowd.
It’s kinda like a community party game. Exciting, and easy to learn. Flamingo hit a home run on this one. Well done!
It’s kinda like a community party game. Exciting, and easy to learn. Flamingo hit a home run on this one. Well done!
January 16th, 2022 at 11:58:44 PM
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Quote: BigDaddy316This game is a winner! Fast-paced and fun! We had a blast playing this game at the Flamingo. Hopefully Caesars will expand this to their other properties so the lines to play won’t be so long. And people won’t get up from the table so there was a bit of crowd.
It’s kinda like a community party game. Exciting, and easy to learn. Flamingo hit a home run on this one. Well done!
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Are you friends with the creator or what? A friend and I didn't experience anything like this when we played this week. We found the game slow and clunky. The card that explained the game described it as exhilarating which we kept making fun of. The table was empty when we approached but after a while a couple joined in to play. The pit and dealers are still new with the game which may have resulted in it playing even slower. The dealer made a number of mistakes. Once a player made a 4x bet and won but the dealer told him he made a mistake, bet too much and made him take some of his bet back. I questioned it, the pit came over and fixed the dealer's error. Following the hand the dealer questioned what a player could bet and the pit clearly said they could bet 2x or 4x and that was it. The actual rules state 2x to 4x.
Anyway, it wasn't a great experience. I may give it one more try. I won't be back in Vegas for several months, if it's still there then I will. Hopefully it will be a smoother experience after that amount of time.
January 17th, 2022 at 8:44:32 AM
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If the dealer can make errors one way, then he can make them the other way. Probably something that I would want to observe just to see if any player-benefit errors are common and then try to estimate whether or not that might yield a player advantage based on frequency of errors.
Depending on the game and how much the error in question swings EV, just a dealer committing an error once in a while can sometimes yield a substantial player advantage.
Depending on the game and how much the error in question swings EV, just a dealer committing an error once in a while can sometimes yield a substantial player advantage.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
January 17th, 2022 at 1:35:46 PM
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Quote: Mission146If the dealer can make errors one way, then he can make them the other way. Probably something that I would want to observe just to see if any player-benefit errors are common and then try to estimate whether or not that might yield a player advantage based on frequency of errors.
Depending on the game and how much the error in question swings EV, just a dealer committing an error once in a while can sometimes yield a substantial player advantage.
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I'd say based on the dealer I played with, the player had an advantage provided the players were on their toes and stopped her from making mistakes to their detriment. When the dealer didn't qualify she was paying the play instead of the ante. A significant advantage. There was even discussion over which was correct, she read the information card, and still settled on paying the play being correct. It involved other people being paid so I didn't say a thing in those instances. Even with that it still just wasn't very fun. I also don't like that when dealt correctly only the ante pays when the dealer doesn't qualify. Paying the play and pushing the ante is much better.
March 26th, 2022 at 9:02:47 PM
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Late to the party, but had a chance to play this earlier this week. Thought it was an enjoyable game but would probably change two things:
1. as others have said, you need to pay the play (2-4x raise) rather than the ante when the dealer doesn't qualify, players hated this when they didn't get the raise payout when the play bet pushed with big straights.
2. the second chance side bet really doesn't look like a progressive on the layout, it plays like one with a low hit rate and players made a lot of bets on it and it never hit in the time I spent, but needs more of an indicator of this rather than the dealer just telling players "it never hits". It also took a while to figure out why the dealer was dealing an extra packet of cards and burning some of them.
1. as others have said, you need to pay the play (2-4x raise) rather than the ante when the dealer doesn't qualify, players hated this when they didn't get the raise payout when the play bet pushed with big straights.
2. the second chance side bet really doesn't look like a progressive on the layout, it plays like one with a low hit rate and players made a lot of bets on it and it never hit in the time I spent, but needs more of an indicator of this rather than the dealer just telling players "it never hits". It also took a while to figure out why the dealer was dealing an extra packet of cards and burning some of them.
May 28th, 2022 at 3:10:41 PM
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Also got to play the game this past week at the Flamingo. It was ok, but like most, the problem is the dealer qualifying is less than 50% in my experience (not sure what the actual % of qualifying should be, but we played for about two hours two separate times and found the under 50% number both times). I too agree there needs to be some kind of adjustment of this game for there to be a way to win when the dealer doesnt open or at least pay the ante x2 when a player has a 4 card or higher as there were far too many times the player had a 4 card or higher straight and ended up losing money when playing the minimum. Also on the second chance bet, maybe a push when a 3 card flush is hit. It is kind of a slower play, so if you are having fun with friends, I can see it being popular, but some of the betting and odds need some adjusting.
Also of note, there are only five player spots available on the game. Not sure why that is when the game could add a sixth player spot with the cards needed (7x7+3)
Also of note, there are only five player spots available on the game. Not sure why that is when the game could add a sixth player spot with the cards needed (7x7+3)
May 29th, 2022 at 12:50:21 PM
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Quote: mtcards
Also of note, there are only five player spots available on the game. Not sure why that is when the game could add a sixth player spot with the cards needed (7x7+3)
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With six player spots (filled), you have literally dealt out every card in the 52 card deck. onto the table. I think that most game security experts are uncomfortable with that. They might prefer that the dealer burn the top card, for example.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
June 1st, 2022 at 6:36:52 PM
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I can see that being an issue with collusion, but since the dealers 7 cards and the 3 card second chance arent revealed until after any bet decisions are made, unless the collusion is pretty solid, I dont see how that would change the results much, but it is something to consider
June 2nd, 2022 at 2:22:56 PM
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I was able to write a composition-dependent hand evaluator for Keep It Straight -Second Chance (KISSC). LOL, I'll call this game KISSC from now on. I will post lots of results. The Wizard's strategy of
Fold with 32A or lower
Raise-2 with 432-JT9
Raise-4 with QJT or higher
appears to be basically correct, according to my calculations. However there are exceptions to this strategy. The EV of hands is VERY sensitive to the kickers that you have in your hand, where kickers are defined as the cards that are NOT used to make your straight.
Almost all close decisions involve how to play 3-card straights so we will focus on 3-card straights.
Here are the probabilities I calculate for a 52card deck.
The probabilities are different for each three card straight. Think of it this as: a hand that is rated as a 987 straight must have a 9-8-7 and no 10s and no 6s, because those cards would make it a straight longer than 3 cards.. It also must not have another three card straight that is higher than 987, nor any 4 card straight. Notice that the frequency of an AKQ straight is quite high, over 4.5%. It has a high probability primarily because there is only one rank -a Jack - that cannot be a kicker -and because whenever the other 4 kickers form a different 3-card straight, the AKQ is always the higher of the two 3-card straights.
In this table, DNQ means Does Not Qualify; it means that the longest straight in your hand is 2 cards or less. The fresh deck (52 cards) value of DNQ is about 45.37% and that is how often you will be dealt a straight no longer then 2 cards. You should fold - except for some extremely rare hands.
You see, the cards in your hand will change the dealer's probability of DNQ. And, when the dealer's DNQ probability exceeds 0.5, the correct play is to Raise-2.
The hands with no 3-card or longer straight that are the most profitable to Raise 2 with are
Yep, Tens and Fives: quads of one and Trips of the other.
With these hands, I calculate that the dealer's DNQ is 0.502753439 and the Players EV with Raise-2 = -0.9889862, which is about 1.1 percentage points better than FOLD = -1.0. Of course, these are extremely improbable hands, you could play your whole life and never be dealt either of these 2 hands. But there are other more probable hands that are variations off these hands that are also correct to Raise-2, albeit with less of an EV advantage.
I've also found some other exceptions, some of them non-negligible, in how to play the three-card straight hands. I'll be posting on all of this in the next few days.
Fold with 32A or lower
Raise-2 with 432-JT9
Raise-4 with QJT or higher
appears to be basically correct, according to my calculations. However there are exceptions to this strategy. The EV of hands is VERY sensitive to the kickers that you have in your hand, where kickers are defined as the cards that are NOT used to make your straight.
Almost all close decisions involve how to play 3-card straights so we will focus on 3-card straights.
Here are the probabilities I calculate for a 52card deck.
| Straight | Probability |
|---|---|
| AKQ | 0.04537253 |
| KQJ | 0.029787832 |
| QJT | 0.029787832 |
| JT9 | 0.029910298 |
| T98 | 0.029144888 |
| 987 | 0.028501944 |
| 876 | 0.027981465 |
| 765 | 0.027216055 |
| 654 | 0.026052633 |
| 543 | 0.025747426 |
| 432 | 0.025348456 |
| 32A | 0.036195268 |
| DNQ | 0.453718486 |
The probabilities are different for each three card straight. Think of it this as: a hand that is rated as a 987 straight must have a 9-8-7 and no 10s and no 6s, because those cards would make it a straight longer than 3 cards.. It also must not have another three card straight that is higher than 987, nor any 4 card straight. Notice that the frequency of an AKQ straight is quite high, over 4.5%. It has a high probability primarily because there is only one rank -a Jack - that cannot be a kicker -and because whenever the other 4 kickers form a different 3-card straight, the AKQ is always the higher of the two 3-card straights.
In this table, DNQ means Does Not Qualify; it means that the longest straight in your hand is 2 cards or less. The fresh deck (52 cards) value of DNQ is about 45.37% and that is how often you will be dealt a straight no longer then 2 cards. You should fold - except for some extremely rare hands.
You see, the cards in your hand will change the dealer's probability of DNQ. And, when the dealer's DNQ probability exceeds 0.5, the correct play is to Raise-2.
The hands with no 3-card or longer straight that are the most profitable to Raise 2 with are
10-10-10-10-5-5-5
10-10-10-5-5-5-5
10-10-10-5-5-5-5
Yep, Tens and Fives: quads of one and Trips of the other.
With these hands, I calculate that the dealer's DNQ is 0.502753439 and the Players EV with Raise-2 = -0.9889862, which is about 1.1 percentage points better than FOLD = -1.0. Of course, these are extremely improbable hands, you could play your whole life and never be dealt either of these 2 hands. But there are other more probable hands that are variations off these hands that are also correct to Raise-2, albeit with less of an EV advantage.
I've also found some other exceptions, some of them non-negligible, in how to play the three-card straight hands. I'll be posting on all of this in the next few days.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Jun 2, 2022
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
June 3rd, 2022 at 11:55:41 AM
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Okay let's look at some Fold/Raise-2 decisions for three-card straights in KISSC.
First, when you have a 32A straight. The Wizards strategy is fold. I found no exceptions to this strategy. You should always fold, based on the info in your 7-card hand.
The strongest 32A hand I found was: 32A-8888. The eights do a great job of blocking higher 3 card straights as well as straights that are 4-7 in length. Still, the EV I calculate for 32A-8888 is EV = -1.025, which is worse than Folding with an EV of -1.0. So always fold.
432 Straight: Raise-2 or Fold
The WOO strategy is to always Raise-2 on this straight. However, for the extreme case of 432-3222 I calculate a Raise-2 EV= -1.335372134, which is worse than folding by more than 33 percentage points!
To illustrate what is going on with the Raise/Fold decision, I calculated this Effect of Removal chart for removal of single cards from the deck when holding a 432 straight hand.
The ranks of the removed card are on the x axis, where 1=Ace, 11=Jack, 12=Queen and 13=King. The y axis is in EV, and yes, the presence of a 2 in your four kickers does lower the EV of a 32A hand by more than 8 percent! The 2 blocks the 32A and 432 straights; i.e., it lowers the probability of the dealer getting a 32A straight in his hand which is the only dealer straight hand that you can win against. It also lowers the probability of the dealer tieing you with a 432.
A 3 amongst your kicker cards reduces the probability of the dealer having a 32A, a 432 and a 543 straight. It's not as disastrous as a 2 but it is bad news. Equally bad news is an Ace in your kicker cards, it blocks the 32A straight that your hand can beat as well as an AKQ straight.
The cards that significantly improve your chances of winning are 6 through 12. A 9 in your kickers blocks the following 3-card straights in the dealer's hand: JT9, T98 and 987 -all straights that you will lose against. A 9 is also efficient at blocking 4-card and longer straights, all of which you will lose against.
So, here's the strategy I recommend when dealt a hand whose best straight is a 432:
Strategy for 432 Straight
Raise-2, except fold when
1. One or more of your four kickers is a 2. (This will occur about 21% of the time.)
2. Your four kickers contain two or more 3s or two or more Aces.
3. Your four kickers contain A3, AK, A4, K3 or 43.
Here is a table of some EV calculations for 432 straights that illustrate the effect of certain cards in the kickers.
The last four rows in the table show that my proposed strategy does not always work when there are 88 pairs or 888 trips in the kickers. Mid-rank cards such as 7,8, or 9 are very effective at blocking straights, and a pair or trips of these cards are very efficient at blocking straights because multiple cards of the same rank do not interfere with each other when blocking straights. By this I mean that an 888 will reduce the probability of dealer straights more efficiently than a 789.
So, the strategy I propose for the 432 Fold/Raise-2 decision could be improved by adding exceptions to the exceptions so as to account for this circumstance, but at the expense of complicating the strategy.
First, when you have a 32A straight. The Wizards strategy is fold. I found no exceptions to this strategy. You should always fold, based on the info in your 7-card hand.
The strongest 32A hand I found was: 32A-8888. The eights do a great job of blocking higher 3 card straights as well as straights that are 4-7 in length. Still, the EV I calculate for 32A-8888 is EV = -1.025, which is worse than Folding with an EV of -1.0. So always fold.
432 Straight: Raise-2 or Fold
The WOO strategy is to always Raise-2 on this straight. However, for the extreme case of 432-3222 I calculate a Raise-2 EV= -1.335372134, which is worse than folding by more than 33 percentage points!
To illustrate what is going on with the Raise/Fold decision, I calculated this Effect of Removal chart for removal of single cards from the deck when holding a 432 straight hand.
The ranks of the removed card are on the x axis, where 1=Ace, 11=Jack, 12=Queen and 13=King. The y axis is in EV, and yes, the presence of a 2 in your four kickers does lower the EV of a 32A hand by more than 8 percent! The 2 blocks the 32A and 432 straights; i.e., it lowers the probability of the dealer getting a 32A straight in his hand which is the only dealer straight hand that you can win against. It also lowers the probability of the dealer tieing you with a 432.
A 3 amongst your kicker cards reduces the probability of the dealer having a 32A, a 432 and a 543 straight. It's not as disastrous as a 2 but it is bad news. Equally bad news is an Ace in your kicker cards, it blocks the 32A straight that your hand can beat as well as an AKQ straight.
The cards that significantly improve your chances of winning are 6 through 12. A 9 in your kickers blocks the following 3-card straights in the dealer's hand: JT9, T98 and 987 -all straights that you will lose against. A 9 is also efficient at blocking 4-card and longer straights, all of which you will lose against.
So, here's the strategy I recommend when dealt a hand whose best straight is a 432:
Strategy for 432 Straight
Raise-2, except fold when
1. One or more of your four kickers is a 2. (This will occur about 21% of the time.)
2. Your four kickers contain two or more 3s or two or more Aces.
3. Your four kickers contain A3, AK, A4, K3 or 43.
Here is a table of some EV calculations for 432 straights that illustrate the effect of certain cards in the kickers.
| Straight | EV |
|---|---|
| 432-3322 | -1.290633108 |
| 432-3222 | -1.335372134 |
| 432-3328 | -1.224327022 |
| 432-33J8 | -1.108998797 |
| 432-3KJ8 | -1.021663756 |
| 432-2KJ8 | -1.061822928 |
| 432-2J86 | -1.04164982 |
| 432-2J84 | -1.039098653 |
| 432-3J84 | -1.010855402 |
| 432-3AJ8 | -1.062290429 |
| 432-3J86 | -0.996363676 |
| 432-3KJ7 | -1.023037765 |
| 432-33J6 | -1.05452062 |
| 432-AAJ7 | -1.0277659 |
| 432-AKT6 | -1.027806359 |
| 432-AT64 | -1.008769312 |
| 432-2888 | -0.988887016 |
| 432-2J88 | -1.012819874 |
| 432-2Q88 | -0.998284715 |
| 432-3K88 | -0.972368764 |
The last four rows in the table show that my proposed strategy does not always work when there are 88 pairs or 888 trips in the kickers. Mid-rank cards such as 7,8, or 9 are very effective at blocking straights, and a pair or trips of these cards are very efficient at blocking straights because multiple cards of the same rank do not interfere with each other when blocking straights. By this I mean that an 888 will reduce the probability of dealer straights more efficiently than a 789.
So, the strategy I propose for the 432 Fold/Raise-2 decision could be improved by adding exceptions to the exceptions so as to account for this circumstance, but at the expense of complicating the strategy.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Jun 3, 2022
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
