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Wizard
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Wizard
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November 17th, 2021 at 12:49:42 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

Was it any fun? It sounds frustrating what with all the cards involved, three of which only apply to one of the side bets. And really? You have to pay extra to get the namesake "second chance"?
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It's a pretty simple game and goes slow. The other players at the table seemed to like it.

Once I had a six-card straight, so I made the 4x raise. As the rules state, with a 6- or 7-card straight, the raise pays 2 to 1. However, the dealer didn't qualify, so I won the Ante only. I would have likely won 8x the Ante had the dealer qualified. Same frustrating problem as in Caribbean Stud. I think one of the side bets should be based on the straight value of the player's hand only. Of course, I wouldn't have made it, but I could see other players not liking missing a big payday because the dealer didn't qualify.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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November 17th, 2021 at 5:04:03 PM permalink
I have updated my page on Keep it Straight Second Chance to include a strategy and house edge. I welcome all comments and especially a verification.

Bottom line is a house edge of 2.81%.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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November 18th, 2021 at 6:59:47 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I have updated my page on Keep it Straight Second Chance to include a strategy and house edge. I welcome all comments and especially a verification.

Bottom line is a house edge of 2.81%.
link to original post


I am getting only 2.77% as the house edge, and I have "raise 2x" on J-10-9

Question: can the raise be any amount between 2x and 4x, or is it limited to, say, 2x, 3x, and 4x? This could affect the house edge.
EDIT: I don't think so, and here's why:
Let the ante bet be 1, and the raise bet be B
For any particular player hand, let W, T, L, and Q be the number of dealer hands that are player wins, ties, losses, and non-qualified, respectively
The value of the hand (for hands less than a 6-straight) is ((B + 1) W - (B + 1) L + Q) / (W + T + L + Q)
= ((B + 1) (W - L) + Q) / (W + T + L + Q)
= B (W - L) / (W + T + L + Q) + (W - L + Q) / (W + T + L + Q)
If W > L, then this is positive, and since it increases as B increases, the bet should be the maximum (raise 4).
If W < L, then increasing B will only increase the amount multiplied by (W - L), which is negative, so it decreases the overall hand value; therefore, the bet should be the minimum (raise 2).
Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Nov 18, 2021
Wizard
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November 18th, 2021 at 7:34:05 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: Wizard

I have updated my page on Keep it Straight Second Chance to include a strategy and house edge. I welcome all comments and especially a verification.

Bottom line is a house edge of 2.81%.
link to original post


I am getting only 2.77% as the house edge, and I have "raise 2x" on J-10-9



Well, based on playing the game for an hour, folding on 10-9-8 just doesn't feel right to me.

Perhaps what we could do is make a table of the probability of each hand from A-2-3 to 89TJQKA, just to make sure we're both scoring correctly.

Quote:

Question: can the raise be any amount between 2x and 4x, or is it limited to, say, 2x, 3x, and 4x? This could affect the house edge.
link to original post



I think so, but I think there is no situation where the player should bet anything in the middle. For the same reason you should never bet 3x on the Big raise in Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em and never double for less in blackjack.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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November 18th, 2021 at 7:45:28 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: ThatDonGuy


I am getting only 2.77% as the house edge, and I have "raise 2x" on J-10-9



Well, based on playing the game for an hour, folding on 10-9-8 just doesn't feel right to me.


You misunderstand. Here's what I get for the strategy:
Fold with A-2-3 or less (we agree on this)
Raise 2x with 2-3-4 through 9-10-Jack
Raise 4x with 10-Jack-Queen or higher
The only difference between your strategy and mine is, with 9-10-Jack, you raise 4x, while I raise only 2x.
I think 9-10-Jack is the one hand where, while a 4x raise has a positive value, a 2x raise has a higher positive value.

Quote: Wizard

Perhaps what we could do is make a table of the probability of each hand from A-2-3 to 89TJQKA, just to make sure we're both scoring correctly.


Here's what I have:

Player Hand is straight size / high card (e.g. "3/6" is 4-5-6; "6/Queen" is 7-8-9-10-J-Q)
Player HandWinsTiesLossesNot Qualified
1 / 400198069616164967344
1 / 500365570736360503184
1 / 6001952049758416420161456
1 / 7005554583051250460961808
1 / 800314692597808273790314352
1 / 900984204417776876723039184
1 / 100029582453997282620543564592
1 / Jack0077825799530086892826118032
1 / Queen001827576216993616759119654864
1 / King004167403320072035490924795120
1 / Ace004105974359216036105214403680
2 / 2004461096596907236837465117808
2 / 3004399667636051237451754726368
2 / 4004339312334112038055307745760
2 / 5005939378913616049802282877440
2 / 6006847132030006458272506212096
2 / 7007971194498896067739509721600
2 / 8009274976725712078569189351680
2 / 90010702535340828890577479104512
2 / 1000122842149775136104204432341504
2 / Jack00139204362311968116542469714432
2 / Queen00161730405228544139050435611936
2 / King00163301281400704137479559439776
2 / Ace00253210460166480203507824324560
3 / 30453178593350411915285192507299010946292464
3 / 4493760660068820430718080007848238210276870474383139104
3 / 5940373786776020430718080007314310261675271347531358048
3 / 61521922170443221816617579527094564388804872237789388128
3 / 71935674632472023260520371206885934075358474689050711136
3 / 82481070729240024512826209286542630606968076446267237472
3 / 93057196694500825809793520646166270596267278222284354656
3 / 103671703048113627134966215685754783233860879962950567008
3 / Jack4327594503857628755088512005381609778833681620631418208
3 / Queen4915673877016028479406248964622215885355282617845153632
3 / King5533911571403228479406248964104237796632081615249096992
3 / Ace91515553117552713610530323253659705526496121476589806320
4 / 4356060785125128179520520961853032152460843379291044224
4 / 5263594604997763906922325761211874294310431606743295424
4 / 6271560182047363906922325761089120623782432037722295744
4 / 728683747889984390692232576984445087910431556747969216
4 / 829524904895296390692232576887282409638431687217746624
4 / 930387907076928390692232576799386296486431703176696512
4 / 1031307005764416390692232576709072322726431687217746624
4 / Jack32612695188288390692232576591550358080031556747969216
4 / Queen33012332780864390692232576503489166169632037722295744
4 / King34042796541504390692232576443540690137631606743295424
4 / Ace49160334310400832510825344538349968000043700798011776
5 / 51448547490073662122913280150283294412812551073098496
5 / 61136393835238436245048832104888838041610018559598848
5 / 7113613757688323624504883290418720665610165823356160
5 / 8116317543139843624504883277375281459210025879203072
5 / 9117154600880643624504883265161854873610064307694848
5 / 10118534644861443624504883251361415065610064307694848
5 / Jack119875463088643624504883241796081971210025879203072
5 / Queen119202324974083624504883234533047808010165823356160
5 / King121151983311363624504883229762840166410018559598848
5 / Ace156669937559046212291328032131408896012551073098496
6 / 633854367846402606764032663700316162679458895872
6 / 729483540275201949847552498327429122390236164096
6 / 829202043822081949847552396440248322428574527488
6 / 929593204776961949847552291522355202399950221312
6 / 1029619572531201949847552212674682882405198213120
6 / Jack29729713643521949847552155013488642399950221312
6 / Queen29483505868801949847552114978201602428574527488
6 / King2989107425280194984755290793451522390236164096
6 / Ace3443969234944260676403278375813122679458895872
7 / 741912611635235831808863305728323474440192
7 / 841474473984035831808661979136328057143296
7 / 940904179712035831808460652544333961412608
7 / 1041268704051235831808309657600330467164160
7 / Jack41280028672035831808196411392330467164160
7 / Queen40939097292835831808111476736333961412608
7 / King4153589432323583180847775744328057143296
7 / Ace419989422080358318080323474440192


Hunterhill
Hunterhill
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November 18th, 2021 at 7:59:48 AM permalink
So if you had 9,10,J. You should 4x. What if you saw one of your outs in your neighbors hand or two of of your outs would you still 4x? Would some of the 2x hands become folds?
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Wizard
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Wizard
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November 18th, 2021 at 9:21:49 AM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

So if you had 9,10,J. You should 4x. What if you saw one of your outs in your neighbors hand or two of of your outs would you still 4x? Would some of the 2x hands become folds?
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You don't get to draw, so that wouldn't matter much. I suppose if you saw the other players with cards in the middle ranks, it would improve your chances very moderately.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 18th, 2021 at 10:20:11 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I am getting only 2.77% as the house edge, and I have "raise 2x" on J-10-9
link to original post



I found a bug in my program in scoring wheel hands.

I'll update my page in about an hour, but it looks like the smallest 4x raise should be on 10-J-Q. This gives a house edge of 2.78%, based on a limited simulation. Running a longer one now.

In related news, here is how often I get each high hand.

Cards in straight High card Count
7 A 16,384
7 K 16,384
7 Q 16,384
7 J 16,384
7 10 16,384
7 9 16,384
7 8 16,384
7 7 16,384
6 A 135,168
6 K 118,784
6 Q 118,784
6 J 118,784
6 10 118,784
6 9 118,784
6 8 118,784
6 7 118,784
6 6 135,168
5 A 630,272
5 K 495,104
5 Q 495,104
5 J 495,104
5 10 495,104
5 9 495,104
5 8 495,104
5 7 495,104
5 6 495,104
5 5 630,272
4 A 2,183,296
4 K 1,553,024
4 Q 1,553,024
4 J 1,553,024
4 10 1,553,024
4 9 1,553,024
4 8 1,553,024
4 7 1,553,024
4 6 1,553,024
4 5 1,553,024
4 4 2,166,912
3 A 5,402,496
3 K 3,436,288
3 Q 3,538,688
3 J 3,641,088
3 10 3,743,488
3 9 3,829,504
3 8 3,915,520
3 7 4,017,920
3 6 4,001,536
3 5 3,985,152
3 4 3,985,152
3 3 4,907,392
All 1 or 2 card straight 60,598,640
Total 133,784,560
Last edited by: Wizard on Nov 18, 2021
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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November 18th, 2021 at 10:24:01 AM permalink
This game is such an obvious twist on Chase the Flush and High Card Flush.

I actually have studied straights of n-length as a function of number of cards drawn, but I don't think you need my expertise on this one. One interesting nugget is that having a straight in your hand slightly increases the chances of a straight (of equal or greater length) in your opponent's hand. Its because every card in your hand is a straight blocker for specific straights such as 6-2 or K-9, and when you have multiple cards in a row, they all block many of the same potential straights -which is less efficient at blocking straights than having widely spaced ranks.

I'm surprised this game designer didn't allow a discard and draw of, say, 1 or 2 cards to the initial hand. It would have increased the interest level and wagering, but I guess it would have slowed the game and limited the number of players who can be dealt from a 52 card deck.
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Wizard
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Wizard
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November 18th, 2021 at 12:26:12 PM permalink
I ran a longer simulation of almost five billion hands. Based on the strategy of raising 4x on 10-J-Q or higher, I get a house edge of 2.80%.

My page has been updated.

I'm not saying Don is wrong, but I think I'm happy if we agree on the strategy and are within 0.03% on the house edge.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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