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charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
teliot
March 28th, 2021 at 10:27:39 AM permalink
One of the best measures is one that Eliot created. It is based on sitting watching hands and making $100 bets whenever there is an advantage. The measure states how much, on average, you would make per 100 hands watched. (In the articles here there is reference to $1000, but personally I prefer $100.)

Some time ago I used this measure for a new game comparing its countability index to Blackjack. Varying from 83% penetration through to CSMs, I was getting figures for BJ such as $27 for 83% penetration to $1.75 for CSMs.

If I've read Eliot's pages correctly, the possible profits for Baccarat are Cents rather than Dollars, so you could earn one free coffee per day! This is typically why casinos have little concern allowing people to write down everything and make the some of the largest bets in the casino.


As an aside it is something that new game designers should consider as sometimes a good game/side-bet does need protection from counting. I think being able to quantify this against Blackjack, which Casinos understand the risk, is a valuable tool.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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March 28th, 2021 at 10:28:05 AM permalink
Ok, I hate to do this Alan, but is this thread and question related to or inspired by the long running Mdawg situation?

I only ask because the very first time I was able to interact with Mdawg on a forum, which was probably a year or more into his "adventures", I asked if he was counting or doing anything known or even not very well known to gain an advantage at baccarat and he emphatically replied NO. I have since asked several more times with the same response.

So if this is in reference to Mdawg, lets rule that out. If it is independent of that discussion, please accept my apologies for this brief interruption.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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March 28th, 2021 at 12:39:05 PM permalink
Just bet Player when the count is -4 or further negative, bet Banker if it's above -4. Seems easy-peasy until you forget the count.
coachbelly
coachbelly
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
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March 28th, 2021 at 12:51:06 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

if this is in reference to Mdawg, lets rule that out.



This sounds like you are believing only what you want to believe.
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
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March 28th, 2021 at 4:17:06 PM permalink
8 DECK, PLAY UNTIL LAST 14 CARDS, 100,000 shoe simulation.


A) BANKER BET

1)Strategy : Computer Perfect play
2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.
3) Average EV* = 1.35%
4) Rounds/shoe = 0.29
5) Total Winning/shoe = $24.14
6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 63




B) PLAYER BET

1)Strategy : Computer Perfect play
2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.
3) Average EV* = 1.87%
4) Rounds/shoe = 0.24
5) Total Winning/shoe = $34.25
6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 60



* Average EV = Total winning per shoe /Total Betting amount per shoe



It is surprising that PLAYER BET have higher profits then BANKER bet.

So worth to play ?
unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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March 28th, 2021 at 4:26:30 PM permalink
Quote: ssho88

8 DECK, PLAY UNTIL LAST 14 CARDS, 100,000 shoe simulation.


A) BANKER BET

1)Strategy : Computer Perfect play
2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.
3) Average EV* = 1.35%
4) Rounds/shoe = 0.29
5) Total Winning/shoe = $24.14
6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 63




B) PLAYER BET

1)Strategy : Computer Perfect play
2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.
3) Average EV* = 1.87%
4) Rounds/shoe = 0.24
5) Total Winning/shoe = $34.25
6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 60



* Average EV = Total winning per shoe /Total Betting amount per shoe



It is surprising that PLAYER BET have higher profits then BANKER bet.

So worth to play ?



Would you mind adding tie between to simulation?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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AxelWolf
March 28th, 2021 at 5:12:44 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

This sounds like you are believing only what you want to believe.



My vote for most ironic comment of the year
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
  • Threads: 47
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March 28th, 2021 at 5:28:39 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Would you mind adding tie between to simulation?



Actually I am simulating for TIE(1 pay 8) and TIE(1 pay 9)....

It take longer time to simulate with prefect strategy.
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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March 28th, 2021 at 6:50:33 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Of course, my conclusions are exactly the same as Mike's.



There was a good wizardofodds article from years ago on counting side bets. Do you have a link to that one?

I talked to someone a few weeks ago who has been doing well at that.
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
  • Threads: 47
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Thanks for this post from:
unJon
March 28th, 2021 at 11:06:48 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Would you mind adding tie between to simulation?



C) TIE BET(1 PAY 8)

1) Strategy : Computer Perfect play
2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.
3) Average EV* = 9.58%
4) Rounds/shoe = 0.26
5) Total Winning/shoe = $178.51
6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 68




D) TIE BET(1 PAY 9)

1) Strategy : Computer Perfect play
2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.
3) Average EV* = 7.63%
4) Rounds/shoe = 2.58
5) Total Winning/shoe = $794.64
6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 36

If you bet on 20 tables(online games) at the same time with the help of computer, your total winning/shoe = 20 * (24.14 + 34.25 + 178.51 ) = $4738, So worth to play ?
Last edited by: ssho88 on Mar 29, 2021

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