GuyIncognito
GuyIncognito
Joined: Jun 2, 2015
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June 14th, 2020 at 6:16:16 PM permalink
My search is failing me; has the wizard (or anyone else) come up with a counting system for these side bets? Specifically interested in Any 8 beats Any 7.
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
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June 14th, 2020 at 7:09:40 PM permalink
https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/side-bets/bad-beat-baccarat/

I can find the counting system quite easily provided you let me know info below :

1) No of deck
2) Cut card location, 14 cards from the bottom of the shoe ?
3) min - max bet limits
4) No of tables available
5) Location, where I can find this game ?
6) Details game rules and payoff

James
GuyIncognito
GuyIncognito
Joined: Jun 2, 2015
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June 14th, 2020 at 8:57:51 PM permalink
Hey James, thanks for the reply.

It's one of those video bacc "stadium" type setups.... Something like Dynasty or Imperial? Anyway, I'm not sure about the specifics you mentioned, I suppose you can just assume standard bacc conditions (8 decks, ~1 cut off). I was particularly interested in counting the Any 8 vs Any 7, paying 25-1.
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
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June 15th, 2020 at 4:16:21 AM permalink
Quote: GuyIncognito

Hey James, thanks for the reply.

It's one of those video bacc "stadium" type setups.... Something like Dynasty or Imperial? Anyway, I'm not sure about the specifics you mentioned, I suppose you can just assume standard bacc conditions (8 decks, ~1 cut off). I was particularly interested in counting the Any 8 vs Any 7, paying 25-1.



The house edge = 18.35%, I don't think you can beat it with card counting(7/8 penetration).
GuyIncognito
GuyIncognito
Joined: Jun 2, 2015
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June 15th, 2020 at 3:24:35 PM permalink
Fair enough... the natural 9 over natural 8 bet is 8.5%, and the bad beat bet is 6.9%; would either of those be exploitable?
ChesterDog
ChesterDog
Joined: Jul 26, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
GuyIncognito
June 16th, 2020 at 2:57:29 PM permalink
Quote: GuyIncognito

Fair enough... the natural 9 over natural 8 bet is 8.5%, and the bad beat bet is 6.9%; would either of those be exploitable?



The "natural 9 over natural 8" bet is an easy one. Your running count is simply the total 8s and 9s remaining, which would start at 64 for an 8-deck shoe. The true count is the running count divided by the decks remaining. As long as the true count is greater than about 9, your EV is positive.

Your EV would increase by about 0.084 per unit of TC above 9. Divide your EV by about 50 for your Kelly fraction (the fraction of your bankroll to bet.)
GuyIncognito
GuyIncognito
Joined: Jun 2, 2015
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June 16th, 2020 at 6:22:07 PM permalink
Sounds good.... I feel like that and the bad beat bet might be correlated? Since a glut of 9s and 8s would raise the probability of 9/8, 8/7, 7/6 hands in general... but these things aren't always intuitive.

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