Wizard
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Wizard
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MrCasinoGamesbeachbumbabs
October 25th, 2019 at 12:05:01 PM permalink
I've got my computer going on the main game. It will take 9 hours and 22 minutes to cycle through every combination. So, expect results, hopefully good ones, to be ready about 9:30 PM Vegas time.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
gordonm888
gordonm888
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October 25th, 2019 at 12:58:42 PM permalink
As a strategy for the PLAY/FOLD decision I get:

PLAY if your hand (with the wild card) is AA-Q96 or higher.
FOLD any hand that (with the wild card) is AA-Q95 or lower.

Exceptions
PLAY AA-Q95 when
- your wild card is a 4 and your 5-card hand has all 4 suits.

FOLD AA-Q96
- when your wild card is a 2
*******************************

Having a deuce in your hand is a bad card, because the deuce blocks fewer dealer straights.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Oct 25, 2019
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
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October 25th, 2019 at 2:44:59 PM permalink
Iím in the presence of wizards!
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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smoothgrh
October 25th, 2019 at 3:57:24 PM permalink
five card games are usually more vulnerable to player collusion. Would seeing one or two dealer cards in other player's hands change any play/fold decisions.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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Wizard
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MrCasinoGames
October 26th, 2019 at 9:44:07 AM permalink
Results are in!

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Player wins 2 1,196,963,177,508 0.300243 0.600486
Dealer doesn't qualify 1 612,847,987,596 0.153725 0.153725
Push 0 4,421,831,136 0.001109 0.000000
Fold -1 1,200,890,164,320 0.301228 -0.301228
Dealer wins -2 971,522,942,880 0.243694 -0.487389
Total 3,986,646,103,440 1.000000 -0.034405


The player will raise 69.9% of the time, for an average final wager of 1.699. So, house edge is 3.44% and element of risk is 2.03%.

Next, I shall confirm or deny Gordon's strategy.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
TigerWu
TigerWu
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October 26th, 2019 at 9:52:39 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

So, house edge is 3.44%



Not bad for a carnival game. Looks like it might be pretty fun, too. I'd give it a shot, especially if the dealer was as distracting as the woman in the video.
gordonm888
gordonm888
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October 26th, 2019 at 10:59:25 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard


The player will raise 69.9% of the time, for an average final wager of 1.699. So, house edge is 3.44% and element of risk is 2.03%.

Next, I shall confirm or deny Gordon's strategy.



Always possible that I made a mistake - actually, given my track record recently its more than "possible." I did some things manually and may have missed something.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 26th, 2019 at 12:13:47 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

As a strategy for the PLAY/FOLD decision I get:

PLAY if your hand (with the wild card) is AA-Q96 or higher.
FOLD any hand that (with the wild card) is AA-Q95 or lower.

Exceptions
PLAY AA-Q95 when
- your wild card is a 4 and your 5-card hand has all 4 suits.

FOLD AA-Q96
- when your wild card is a 2



My own analysis is showing the borderline range to be close to this. However, I think there are exceptions you're missing. For example, I show 2h, 6d, Tc, Qs, Ah to be a fold.

I think what I'm going to advise on my site is to raise with AAQT (after the wild substitution) or better. A difference between that and optimal should be minute.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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smoothgrh
October 27th, 2019 at 7:55:20 PM permalink
If we must boil down the strategy to raising on X-Y-Z or higher, before the switch, I find the best strategy to be to raise with A-Q-10 or better. That is an increase in house edge of 0.0020%, compared to optimal. A-Q-9 is an increase of 0.0122% and A-Q-J is 0.0107%.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
gordonm888
gordonm888
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smoothgrh
October 27th, 2019 at 9:38:00 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

My own analysis is showing the borderline range to be close to this. However, I think there are exceptions you're missing. For example, I show 2h, 6d, Tc, Qs, Ah to be a fold.

I think what I'm going to advise on my site is to raise with AAQT (after the wild substitution) or better. A difference between that and optimal should be minute.



BTW, I agree. I found that I had erroneously scored a group of hands and when I corrected it that AQ9 vs AQ10 is the breakpoint.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

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